Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

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ahhrunforthehills
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by ahhrunforthehills » Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:34 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:10 pm

If I would have put in $1000 when I knew about it at $100 per bitcoin or whatever it was at the time.

Think about what you will lose if you put 1% of your investable assets into Bitcoin and it goes to 0 versus what you may gain if it just keeps doubling.
If I was 3 feet taller I would have Lebron’s house.

If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts it would be Christmas everyday.

I would NEVER expose 1% of my portfolio to a high-risk chance of becoming zero. I love all 100 of my 1 percentages equally. Anything else would require me to look in the mirror and ask myself if I have a gambling problem.

I think that you have to be very careful in this world. Everyone is trying to separate you from your money. Appealing to your greed/lust is their strongest weapon.

Besides, how much NEW money would it take for it to “keep doubling”. Every time it it doubles, the chances of it doubling again go down EXPONENTIALLY.
My biggest fear of Bitcoin at this point since I bought a small sliver is that it will become less volatile. I think we may actually be seeing this right now as it has become more adopted.
I wouldn’t worry about it.

I do not see Bitcoin being more “adopted”. I don’t know any regular businesses that accepts it. I would not accept it as payment.

As for volatility, almost everyone invested in Bitcoin is classified as a speculator. They are not parking cash for safety. Meanwhile 40% of the market is allegedly made of 10% of holders. When you combine those statements... well, where I am from they call that a “pump and dump”.

Remember when Bitcoin had that huge run-up to $20k and crashed back down to $4k? Then some professors at University of Texas and Ohio State did a bunch of research and found the entire run-up was caused by just 1 large investor?

Nothing has changed. The only difference is now you just have a few more whales waiting in the bitcoin water. They are just waiting for enough small fish to pile in before the carnage begins.

That doesn’t mean that Bitcoin can’t have a “faked it till it maked it” legacy. There is always a small chance it could be adopted in real-life transactions by the masses. But the odds are absurdly low.

Why not just play the lottery or penny stocks instead? Or even better, start your own company (if you haven’t already). You will find that the chances of turning a few dollars into millions is actually quite achievable with careful planning and a strong work ethic. You will also generate better tax deductions.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by doodle » Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:40 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:34 am
Besides, how much NEW money would it take for it to “keep doubling”. Every time it it doubles, the chances of it doubling again go down EXPONENTIALLY.
A lot of the speculative easy money has also already piled in. It takes a certain type of individual to be attracted to this roller coaster. At some point the trajectory starts to grind to a much slower pace....the question is at that point how many of these individuals will jump ship for the next high flying quick buck?

I've spoken in person to a variety of bitcoin holders....almost unanimously they don't give a rip about crypto as a tech...they in it because they like the speculative nature of it. Much different than the gold bug crowd
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by dualstow » Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:02 pm

Two quick points.

1) Peter Lynch said that people often say to him “I should have invested in this and that and I missed out.” It’s crazy. It is not the same as lost money.

2) Never mind whether or not bitcoin is going to double again, or how many times it may do so. How many people will hold on through the turbulence? I’ve got one friend who held on to Apple (and not much else) through thick and thin, and I think he’s a rarity. i also think he’s just plain lucky. Another friend had tens of thousands of shares but he sold everything when he moved back to Europe. I think that was the 1990’s. The current price is driving him nuts.

How many stocks did I hold onto, only to see them never recover? Too many. O0
I sold Tesla at 380 or 390 here. It’s documented in this forum, vp section. Thought i was getting out at the top. I remember all the bad news when i sold. I don’t think i can blame myself for selling.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by doodle » Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:13 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:02 pm

I sold Tesla at 380 or 390 here. It’s documented in this forum, vp section. Thought i was getting out at the top. I remember all the bad news when i sold. I don’t think i can blame myself for selling.
Many will ride it all the way back down again should it fail to materialize the visions that drove it's price to nearly $1000
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by dualstow » Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:20 pm

True. And it’s certainly possible that NIO is going to eat its lunch.

Bitcoin seems to be the head of the crypto pack, but since it doesn’t produce anything, it is of course an entirely different animal. I hope to ride it to the top (or the bottom) but that’s easier to do when you start with coin that was given*.

It will never replace my gold.




*I refuse to say gifted.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:45 pm

doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:13 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:02 pm

I sold Tesla at 380 or 390 here. It’s documented in this forum, vp section. Thought i was getting out at the top. I remember all the bad news when i sold. I don’t think i can blame myself for selling.
Many will ride it all the way back down again should it fail to materialize the visions that drove it's price to nearly $1000
Case in point, gym partner who has an unrealized loss of 600K on Tesla because he is adamant the stock is going to 1000 and WILL NOT SELL even when he had a significant profit. Anchored to the number come hell or high water.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by ppnewbie » Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:30 pm

doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:40 pm
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:34 am
Besides, how much NEW money would it take for it to “keep doubling”. Every time it it doubles, the chances of it doubling again go down EXPONENTIALLY.
A lot of the speculative easy money has also already piled in. It takes a certain type of individual to be attracted to this roller coaster. At some point the trajectory starts to grind to a much slower pace....the question is at that point how many of these individuals will jump ship for the next high flying quick buck?

I've spoken in person to a variety of bitcoin holders....almost unanimously they don't give a rip about crypto as a tech...they in it because they like the speculative nature of it. Much different than the gold bug crowd
I’ve listened to Raul Paul of Real Vision talk about BItcoin endlessly and did not hear a word about Ethereum. Eth started going up and .... suddenly he has big opinions on why Ethereum is going to the moon.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by doodle » Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:54 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:30 pm
doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:40 pm
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:34 am
Besides, how much NEW money would it take for it to “keep doubling”. Every time it it doubles, the chances of it doubling again go down EXPONENTIALLY.
A lot of the speculative easy money has also already piled in. It takes a certain type of individual to be attracted to this roller coaster. At some point the trajectory starts to grind to a much slower pace....the question is at that point how many of these individuals will jump ship for the next high flying quick buck?

I've spoken in person to a variety of bitcoin holders....almost unanimously they don't give a rip about crypto as a tech...they in it because they like the speculative nature of it. Much different than the gold bug crowd
I’ve listened to Raul Paul of Real Vision talk about BItcoin endlessly and did not hear a word about Ethereum. Eth started going up and .... suddenly he has big opinions on why Ethereum is going to the moon.
Honestly, it's shills like him and Max Keister etc. that are a real turnoff for me. I guess the same could be said though about the goldbugs as well... ::)
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:46 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:45 pm
doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:13 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:02 pm

I sold Tesla at 380 or 390 here. It’s documented in this forum, vp section. Thought i was getting out at the top. I remember all the bad news when i sold. I don’t think i can blame myself for selling.
Many will ride it all the way back down again should it fail to materialize the visions that drove it's price to nearly $1000
Case in point, gym partner who has an unrealized loss of 600K on Tesla because he is adamant the stock is going to 1000 and WILL NOT SELL even when he had a significant profit. Anchored to the number come hell or high water.
Cue the Vinny 10x “!”
That’s got to hurt.

I’d have more faith in bitcoin at this point.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:17 pm

GBTC down 6%...any takers or is this just a little blip?
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:52 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:17 pm
GBTC down 6%...any takers or is this just a little blip?
I won't buy more until low 20s but will sell half of what I have if it gets to 80.

Bitcoin is a new asset class.


"Decentralized alternating pyramid scheme"

DAPS for short.

You never know which way the pyramid will go.

Built in feature is being able to transfer your pyramid position across borders if you hold directly.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by senecaaa » Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:42 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:52 pm

You never know which way the pyramid will go.

Hmm, almost like any other asset ;D
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:01 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:52 pm
Built in feature is being able to transfer your pyramid position across borders if you hold directly.
Question about holding directly...if the wallet you are storing them on malfunctions, or you lose it, do you lose the bitcoins inside it?
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:49 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:01 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:52 pm
Built in feature is being able to transfer your pyramid position across borders if you hold directly.
Question about holding directly...if the wallet you are storing them on malfunctions, or you lose it, do you lose the bitcoins inside it?
Not if you remember the magic words.
B in the VP helped me get mine into a new wallet.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by vincent_c » Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:58 am

Here's an argument for why Bitcoin may not be a complement or alternative to gold.

Bitcoin may be too functional in terms of the commercial things that can affect its value to behave like gold in the long term. There is a blockchain called Stacks that uses Proof of Transfer consensus to bring smart contracts to transactions that can have bitcoin as the final settlement layer.

STX miners actually earn BTC for mining on the Stacks blockchain. There are also other protocols like Chainpoint that will add a bitcoin proof to any digital transaction that facilitates auditing in supply chains. Of course there are many L2 developments that I think add value to bitcoin. It's difficult to say whether the financial uses of bitcoin will dwarf the other use cases in the long run.

However this is a known risk that gold doesn't have and until it is resolve it is another reason why bitcoin may not behave like gold as a financial asset.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:04 pm

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:01 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:52 pm
Built in feature is being able to transfer your pyramid position across borders if you hold directly.
Question about holding directly...if the wallet you are storing them on malfunctions, or you lose it, do you lose the bitcoins inside it?
I believe there are seed words that you must remember. You can recover your private key usin log those words.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:09 pm

Indeed. My blockstream green wallet requires a 24-word seed phrase to regenerate. I have it written down in a VERY safe place.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:01 pm

doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 2:32 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:49 pm
2. A new coin is created that makes better use of the processing power. Something that also gives it a higher purpose that would cause people to always prefer it even if growth iniatally seemed lower.
There are many such coins. And that is the basis of the argument that I posted in video. Bitcoin will be crowded out by something faster, cheaper, more liquid and that has actual function. Unlike gold or even fiat currency bitcoin doesn't have a price floor...in the former with gold it would be commodity demand for industrial use and in the later with fiat to settle government fees, debts, taxes etc.
People have been coming out with faster and cheaper coins/networks for almost a decade now. The reason none has supplanted bitcoin?

Bitcoin's value is not (predominantly) about a payment network. Its not about being a better Visa.

It is about hard money that is censorship-resistant, inflation-resistant, etc.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:26 am
Sorry everyone, but this is probably going to sound pretty harsh...

I strongly believe that, for many people here, the PP is akin to Alcoholics Anonymous. People walk in the door and are given a set of “rules” to keep them from being a danger to themselves. HB knew that once you are a junkie, you will always be a junkie. Queue the music for the “variable portfolio”. There is no LOGICAL reason for a VP. It is ONLY for a gambler to scratch their itch. It is like a city-funded “safe injection site” for a junkie.
I do think we all use the VP as you suggest and it’s a good analogy. To balance it a bit: Harry recommended speculations in the VP if you have strong convictions. Also Harry recommended that you PP funds that are "precious" to you. Maybe not all funds are precious to everyone.
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:26 am
If everyone is being honest with themselves, all they would have to do is play out the realistic path of Bitcoin.

The IRS has already made that clear on the 1040. The only way bitcoin can survive is if the masses feel comfortable reporting it (and paying either capital gains taxes, wealth taxes, etc.). This obviously defeats the purpose of side-stepping inflation.
I dont really understand this. Bitcoin can only survive if people put it on their tax returns? And reporting on tax returns defeats the purpose of side-stepping inflation. I dont really get the connection here.
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:26 am
If the masses decide not to comply, then how exactly will you cash your chips out?? Why do you think it will be any easier than having a foreign bank account? Failure to report is a 50% penalty (not including interest). More importantly, the western world works together when it comes to information sharing. Ever open a foreign bank account as a US citizen under the FATCA and “know your customer” framework? Are you really planning on moving to Russia?
If Bitcoin is banned it will be hard to sell bitcoin, that is clear. Folks investing in bitcoin should be prepared for such an event.

Dissidents could transact in cash, gold, or other barter. They could transact with other cryptos including stablecoins. They could change jurisdictions. Its not great but it isnt insurmountable either.
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:26 am
This ignores the REAL problem though. What is the purpose of bitcoin? There are 2 camps, Speculators and the preserve-wealth crowd.

If your goal is to preserve wealth, you need either a stable price (or at least stable in relation to inflation) or a stable correlation with another opposing asset. Bitcoin currently offers neither of these. Even worse, Bitcoin’s future offers neither for reasons noted above.
Not totally true:
viewtopic.php?p=173490#p173490
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:26 am
This is the real world. People that think the masses will be able to adopt bitcoin and be “free from government” are, for lack of a better word, extremely delusional.

People say that the government can’t manipulate it. Surrreeee. The government already gets a ton of it through confiscating it in connection to criminal behavior. How much do you think they will have when they confiscate your 50% for failure to file? They would be able to whipsaw the market better than anyone.

Don’t want to hand it over? Here is your jail cell. How will they know about it? Simple, they threaten/incentivize anyone you can transact with (just like they did via FATCA).

They don’t have to stamp it out completely. They just need to make the risk/reward high enough to keep volume and demand low enough not to matter.
I agree with government risk to bitcoin. Although this is all a bit bombastic.

But if the US bans it, that could be even more appealing for other governments to push it and even adopt it in some form. Enemy of my enemy and all that.
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:26 am
What is the difference between bitcoin and gold? For bitcoin, allegedly less than 1,000 people own over 40%. For gold, almost EVERYONE owns some and attributes value to it in the form of jewelry (which 99.9% of the population transfers without ever paying capital gains taxes on). Even a 4 year old attributes value to it because leprechauns and pirates want it so bad.

More importantly, China and Russia are stockpiling it hand over fist while the western world already has it scheduled to be a 100% collateral tier-1 asset in finance in 2023 under Basel III.

The idea that Bitcoin is threatening gold is pretty much laughable. People like to site bitcoin market volume, but their has been plenty if research that the vast majority of the volume in crypto has been spoofed.
I think a few governments own much more than 40% of the gold...

No one is citing random exchange volumes as a reason that bitcoin might be pushing gold aside. They are citing inflows and outflows of highly regulated securities representing those assets. Here is an example:
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=11753&p=219046&hilit=gold#p219046
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:18 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:46 am
People seem to think that somehow bitcoin can operate the same way as internet piracy. But internet piracy has only a few entities that want it stopped (not like the masses that benefit from wealth redistribution). Internet piracy provides the END PRODUCT in an anonymous form (the movie, software, etc.). Bitcoin does not. The END PRODUCT for bitcoin needs to be fiat/products/services... none of those are anonymous. A black-market that will take 20% of your money to buy some anonymous starbucks and best buy gift cards will not be enough to support bitcoin's value.
Bitcoin is a bearer asset, it doesn’t need an end product in the same way that gold or dollars or a steak need an end product.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:23 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:47 pm
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:46 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:01 am
Thank you for your perspective.
I keep asking myself “what if”?
What if Bitcoin is legitimate even with all the challenges outlined to owning and transacting.
What if...

I have .60% of investable assets in Bitcoin to answer all the what ifs...
People seem to think that somehow bitcoin can operate the same way as internet piracy. But internet piracy has only a few entities that want it stopped (not like the masses that benefit from wealth redistribution). Internet piracy provides the END PRODUCT in an anonymous form (the movie, software, etc.). Bitcoin does not. The END PRODUCT for bitcoin needs to be fiat/products/services... none of those are anonymous. A black-market that will take 20% of your money to buy some anonymous starbucks and best buy gift cards will not be enough to support bitcoin's value.
Very interesting perspective. So I am an complete amateur here (cryptonewbie!). But what do you thing about Ethereum and it’s variants? From my understanding the class of underlying product is the virtual machines. Basically decentralized compute that creates smart contracts.

Anyway would love to hear people’s thoughts especially bitcoininthevp’s.
Thanks for asking. My though on Ethereum is largely encapsulated in "An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets":
https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john ... ets+v6.pdf

Basically I see ethereum as a place I might take my money (BTC) if there are some useful features there for my money (hint: there arent any (yet?)). But I dont want to hold ETH as it isnt as good money as BTC because:

- no supply cap of ETH
- monetary policy shifting constantly
- not decentralized and getting less decentralized
- more centrally controlled, has executed rollbacks of transactions they didn’t like
- etc
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:32 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:24 pm
Well, if we want to review it as a venture capital investment, we will want to know what its distinct competitive advantage is. One of the most important questions a venture capitalist will ask is "Can the technology easily be replicated by a competitor?"

This is where everything really turns into a dog turd. There will ALWAYS be a better technology that comes along and replaces your invention. In a pre-industrial revolution world, a watch took a lot of cheddar to have made. Things have clearly changed, but the transformation played out over centuries. In the world of crypto these changes happen over months, not centuries.

If I am looking for something that will "preserve wealth", the thing that is "preserving my wealth" would first either need a stable price (or at least stable in relation to inflation) or a stable correlation with another opposing asset to be a viable choice.

Etherium looks great. The problem is that there are 100 different drugs that look great for curing cancer too. You can also pick the number 4 on the roulette wheel to really goose your winnings. Where do you draw your line for what is just straight-up gambling? I saw a guy in NYC just sold a blockchain-based NFT sound recording of his fart for $85.

Humans don't like to concentrate on risk when they are in greedy-mode. There are no shortage of studies involving brainscans about this kind of thing. When you think about making money, your brain is flooded with so much dopamine that your frontal cortex basically checks out. What we think is logical thought about "investing" are just dopamine-induced drunkin' daydreams of grandeur.

My next sentence is going to sound condescending to some people here... but I am going to say it anyways because I think it might help some people here. For years I have been really perplexed by crypto (especially bitcoin). I heard so many crypto people say "they just don't get it". I have listened to countless podcasts, read articles, research, etc.

I kept saying to myself "what am I not getting about this", "am I being biased", "am I just acting like an old man afraid to embrace the future"? Sound familiar?

It finally hit me when I read that Peter Schiff's 17 year old went all in on bitcoin and said that his dad "just doesn't get it". This 17 year old lives in an Xbox world where you trade real money for virtual clothes for your avatar. His brain spent the majority of his developmental years in an environment created by Microsoft that has been designed to maximize his dopamine levels and to cause addiction to Microsoft's virtual purchases (i.e. to associate real-world value to virtual non-real-world goods). But you can't eat virtual groceries or stay warm in a virtual house. Crypo will basically be the same as fiat for any real world purchases.

I looked around at all the people I knew that were really cheerleadering crypto (excluding wall street propaganda). I realized that NONE of these people had even remotely the background or experience I had in taxation, investing, etc. They are like doomsday preppers who build their underground bunker but never even gave any thought about what they were going to do with all of their garbage (or a thousand other questions). Similarly, crypto people seem locked in their own little XBox world that doesn't factor in real world cause-and-effect. Nobody supporting Bitcoin ever walks through the entire process with how Bitcoin will play out in the REAL WORLD as a direct attack on world governments.

World governments are not some stupid schmucks sitting on a park bench. World governments are supported by THEIR PEOPLE and are provided infinite resources to exert the will of their people. Look at the app "Signal". Anonymous, right? Nope, NSA got in. Pedophiles looking at porn anonymously? The government can put a tracking cookie on your computer once you visit their site. At the end of the day, if you use technology... and if they want to target you bad enough, they can figure it out. They can get at your ISP, they can take control of your "safe" VPN, they can take control of your modem, your phone, your computer, etc. Go to a library? Even if a library still existed... they have cameras (and so do the neighboring buildings that recorded your license plate).

If the government doesn't care enough to pursue you over it, then it simply is not a threat to centralized government or fiat. If that is the case, what makes it so great outside of any other speculative bet like Tesla or #4 on the roulette wheel?

We already live in an electronic currency world. Very few people deal in cash. They are just 1's and 0's. Visa, MasterCard, PayPal, etc. all facilitate in the payment of contracts. Moving to another medium is not going to greatly benefit my business (or anybody else's business that I personally know). So why would my business even begin to focus on it? The moment it grows enough to matter (big "if"), the government will be all over it. The IRS will change its reporting requirements for my business to include [whatever flavor-of-the-month crypto]. If I do not comply, my completely innocent company will be breaking the law and will face penalties. Why would I not comply? It isn't like someone handing you CASH that can't be traced electronically as is accepted GLOBALLY. Once businesses are forced to report it, crypto will then be essentially pegged to fiat again.

Seems simple to me, but again, my brain wasn't created in an environment that conditioned me to inflate the value of non-tangible virtual goods/services. When I was a kid, you held those chucky-cheese tokens in your hand for to play the video game (aka non-tangible virtual service). When you were done, you felt ripped-off if you didn't receive some PHYSICAL TICKETS in return. You then took your PHYSICAL TICKETS to purchase PHYSICAL GOODS behind the stand.

Now before someone says, "aha, you see, you just aren't embracing the times old man. Paper is out, digital is in."...

I have actually made way more money than I will ever spend selling electronic non-tangible virtual services over my career. So, I definitely think I "get it". But I also think that I understand government even better.
Couple points:

"Competitive advantage"/"we could make a better bitcoin",etc:

Bitcoin has first mover advantage, the largest current market cap, the best developers, the most hashrate securing it, the largest ecosystem surrounding it, a clear purpose which it has delivered on (hard money), the best monetary policy.

You could clone bitcoin code EXACTLY and you would have zero of these.

"government can ban it":

Lots of your writings essentially come down to government could ban/tax/etc Bitcoin. While you (condescendingly?) claim that no one has thought of these such things, there are some great resources on the topic:

Can Governments Stop Bitcoin?
https://quillette.com/2021/02/21/can-go ... p-bitcoin/

Bitcoin Cannot be Banned
https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitc ... be-banned/
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:35 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm
If Bitcoin is banned it will be hard to sell bitcoin, that is clear. Folks investing in bitcoin should be prepared for such an event.
It is nice to return your money before it happens. E.g. if it doubles just sell the half. And let the rest be (or keep selling the half when it doubles).
No risk to loose and a chance to earn some extra. Better be careful than greedy :-)
Though, buying now for 58k and waiting till it doubles might get dicey . There is a good chance for the next 70-80% correction at that level. Or maybe not ;D
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doodle
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:38 pm

The biggest danger to bitcoin is I don't really care. In the same way I didn't care about beanie babies, or pokemon cards, or whatever the latest greatest thing is. That's how the sizzle becomes a fizzle. It doesn't take anything dramatic, just simply a bunch of disinterested individuals. Maybe I'll be in the minority...maybe bitcoin is facebook and not myspace. Frankly at this point, I don't care. When it can do something interesting other than be sold to the next greater fool maybe I'll start caring.
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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:39 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:34 am
Remember when Bitcoin had that huge run-up to $20k and crashed back down to $4k? Then some professors at University of Texas and Ohio State did a bunch of research and found the entire run-up was caused by just 1 large investor?

Ive been pretty deep in the space for a while and am not familiar with this claim. Is this Tether related or something else?
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:34 am
Nothing has changed. The only difference is now you just have a few more whales waiting in the bitcoin water. They are just waiting for enough small fish to pile in before the carnage begins.
The fact that bitcoin has bubble cycles doesn’t really mean there is some conspiracy behind it.

Do you deny that large institutions are buying billions in BTC? Or are they the small fish?
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:34 am
That doesn’t mean that Bitcoin can’t have a “faked it till it maked it” legacy. There is always a small chance it could be adopted in real-life transactions by the masses. But the odds are absurdly low.
"real-life transactions by the masses" is not the value proposition of bitcoin. Its not trying to be a payment network (not primarily anyways). It is trying to be a digital gold, or as it used to be known "money".

Likely on chain transactions in Bitcoin will be really expensive in the future $100s? $1000s? or more. And will be used as settlement between governments and other large organizations. Individuals and smaller transactions would be done on higher layers (perhaps Lightning) and then batch settled periodically on chain.
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