Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

[bitcoininthevp]

I can't quite wrap my head around bitcoin being an asset like gold. Gold is a tangible commodity that also happens to be money. Bitcoin is a fiat currency in my mind - backed by nothing like the dollar and euro, etc. Might as well have some for diversification, buts its akin to cash IMHO!

Gold is "backed by" its commodity value that makes up about 2% of its total value? The remaining being monetary premium?

Additionally, this is a sort of "intrinsic value" argument. Nothing has intrinsic value because all value is subjective and up to an individuals preferences and environment.

[mathjak107]

5000 years of history says golds value as a store of value has withstood the test of time

[bitcoininthevp]

5000 years of history says golds value as a store of value has withstood the test of time

All value is still subjective though, which is the point Im trying to make to perfect_simulation.

[perfect_simulation]

All value is still subjective though, which is the point Im trying to make to perfect_simulation.

yeah, my core thought is where bitcoin fits into the PP - I think the cash quadrant if any and not the gold one

[bitcoininthevp]

All value is still subjective though, which is the point Im trying to make to perfect_simulation.

yeah, my core thought is where bitcoin fits into the PP - I think the cash quadrant if any and not the gold one

It’s a good question. I think bitcoin is an asset that is in the process of becoming money/currency. Right now it is a bad cash but a good scarce asset. So I think bitcoin is more like gold for the next decade or so and then its volatility and appreciation will be much lower and it could be more like cash then.

[perfect_simulation]

bitcoin is an asset

good points, but its called cryptocurrency not cryptoasset

[Kriegsspiel]

Bitcoin fluctuates way too much for it to be considered a creature like cash. Trading or hodling, bitcoin in the VP sounds much better.

[Hal]

Another interview with Gundlach on the PP. Starts at 46:45 min mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcEj4XkLn5w

[whatchamacallit]

Another interview with Gundlach on the PP. Starts at 46:45 min mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcEj4XkLn5w

Good one. Pick back up at 1:08:30 if you don't make it that far.

Sounds like he was pretty much in PP except 50% cash instead of bonds.

[mathjak107]

Every exception makes it not a pp

[perfect_simulation]

He mentions the PP again 7/17/2021

https://youtu.be/VvoDkfRj-jY?t=230

[whatchamacallit]

Still in it to win it
Permanent at 4:00

https://youtu.be/C08Vz9DTddk

[perfect_simulation]

Still in it to win it
Permanent at 4:00

https://youtu.be/C08Vz9DTddk

He totally said 25% bitcoin/gold before. Now he says hes not long or short bitcoin.....interesting

[whatchamacallit]

https://youtu.be/FJ8AfnuhqA0

Gundlach still recommending Permanent Portfolio but replaces gold with commodities.

[perfect_simulation]

Thanks for sharing, yeah a 60/40 this year would be nothing but pain. PP is having some pain but its quite minimal in comparison

[Hal]

On the 60/40 pain....
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds ... ear-record

[Hal French]

Interesting, in that the PP ETF, PRPFX, deviates from the HBPP with additional investments in silver, Swiss Francs and... real estate. Not that it's any great shakes, but PRPFX was (just barely) ahead for the year as of earlier this week, but took a tumble starting Wednesday.

[perfect_simulation]

Mr. Gundlach consistently touting the PP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECe4xLSkvZo&t=16m7s

[mathjak107]

Thanks for sharing, yeah a 60/40 this year would be nothing but pain. PP is having some pain but its quite minimal in comparison

For comparison the 25% equity model i use which is 41% short term treasuries, 17% total bond , 17% high income and 25% equities

is down 7.80% ytd ..not including today

Pp is down about 9% not including today

So clearly the fact the pp has defensive assets like long term treasuries and gold really has brought nothing special to the party .

Pretty much any portfolio with 25% equities and a mix of short to intermediate term bonds would pretty much be right in there within 1 percent or so .

This is just a crappy market where it doesn’t really matter what the supporting assets to equities are.

Considering the pounding long term treasuries took , the pp really is not doing so bad when compared to other portfolios of equal equities and more conventional holdings .

It isn’t a knock on the pp , as everything seems to be down about the same… it just means that so far there is nothing unique going on in the pp as far as sparing it any better then any other portfolio with a similar equity allocation

[dualstow]

Mr. Gundlach consistently touting the PP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECe4xLSkvZo&t=16m7s

Cool. I've only watched a few Gundlach interviews over the years and they were short, and really just about bonds. I had no idea that he sometimes uses the PP as a starting point!

[mathjak107]

Plan old wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%.

So for all those who kept saying just wait for the stock decline and watch the pp protect you , well here is your stock decline .

The pp is now lagging my conventional 25% equity model which is 25% equities , 17% high yield , 41% short term treasuries and 17% total bond


Pp down minus 10.5 according to Morningstar

Conventional 25% model down 8.8%

So right up to 40% equities the pp has still not lessened the pain
.

All models of close equity allocation are in the same ball park
Just sayin

[Jack Jones]

I told you so.

Thanks, good contribution to the forum.

[boglerdude]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over tho

[mathjak107]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over yet tho

Exactly …

I would think users of the pp would want to know if they are getting the benefit the pp is supposedly known for .

After all look at all the posters here saying just wait until stocks slide .

Well it happened , so I would think users would want to know how it compares to other conservative models.

It is doing no better and no worse right now …perhaps a little worse compared to some like Wellesley or the insight income model

[joypog]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over yet tho

Exactly …

I would think users of the pp would want to know if they are getting the benefit the pp is supposedly known for .

After all look at all the posters here saying just wait until stocks slide .

Well it happened , so I would think users would want to know how it compares to other conservative models.

It is doing no better and no worse right now …perhaps a little worse compared to some like Wellesley or the insight income model

Interesting. I compared the PP vs a 60/40 and a 40/60 (like Wellsey) on portfolio visualizer and the PP lost out to both of those (even after I put a built in a heavy 10% cash allocation (emergency fund) in the stock/bond folios).