Long time lurker saying hi

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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vnatale
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:30 am

vincent_c wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:28 am
Hi everyone,

I've been lurking on this forum since 2016 and this is the first time I've registered with any online forum and made a post. I'm from Canada and I am another Vinny =)

I've been invested with PP philosophies since 2017 and I've gained a lot of knowledge from this board. Part of the reason it's taken me so long to post is because of fear, both for revealing my ideas and for having to defend them in case I've been missing something obvious all this time.

Today I felt compelled to join and start contributing to the forum because I love this forum and we're just missing some renewed focus on the core PP so I am looking forward to becoming a regular on here.
From one Vinny to another Vinny....a big WELCOME!

Hope that this becomes a home for you as it has for me.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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l82start
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by l82start » Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:31 am

welcome...
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Smith1776
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:48 am

Cage fight: Vinny vs. Vinny. Two Vinnys enter... one Vinny leaves...

Just kidding.

Welcome to the forum, fellow Canadian! Finally someone to discuss the Canadian ETF landscape with. ;D
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:49 am

Hello little friend. 2017 was a good year to start.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:10 pm

What is a dinner fund?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Hal
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by Hal » Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:10 pm

Welcome from Australia !

How have you implemented your Canadian PP ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfR9iY5y94s
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:14 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:05 pm
Looking forward to it!

Along with managing my own portfolio, I also manage a "dinner" fund for my extended family and currently those funds are invested using Canadian ETFs. That fund is actually invested in a 3x33 (XSP.TO, CGL.C, and ZFL.TO).

My own portfolio is held in a discretionary family trust and I implement it mainly through futures contracts (ES, UB, and GC).

There's so much to discuss I don't know where to start, but my investment goal is basically to maximize long term purchasing power rather than maximizing USD or CAD so I have strategies to deal with currency exposure and leverage.
Very nice! I have gotten a few friends and family members into the PP as well. It is a slow process though. The real barrier is actually getting people to start investing.

I got one of my friends somewhat recently into the PP. It's a fairly vanilla configuration consisting of ZFL, ZFS, KILO.B, and ESGG. ESGG is really the only oddball fund in that mix as it is a socially responsible investing fund. Fortunately it has a low expense ratio and just recently crossed the $25 million AUM threshold, so it's out of immediate danger in regards to being shut down.

Have you decided to opt for any physical bullion?
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europeanwizard
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by europeanwizard » Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:43 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:19 pm
Prior to covid, my family would get together twice a month for dinners and it would be paid out of that fund. My instructions were to invest it in a way that it would be able to pay for dinners in perpetuity.
Wow, that is pretty nifty. By far the best combination of finance and family that I've heard :)

And welcome, man. Seems PP enthusiasts come from anywhere around the globe.
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:52 pm

Hi Vincent O0
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by foglifter » Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:37 pm

Welcome Vincent! This forum is a great place to hang around. Lots of interesting discussions. :)
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by ppnewbie » Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:39 am

Welcome. I’ve learned a tremendous amount from this forum as well.
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:06 am

vincent_c wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:16 pm
Hal wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:10 pm
Welcome from Australia !

How have you implemented your Canadian PP ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfR9iY5y94s
I'm fortunate that my cost of living is very small compared to the size of the portfolio I manage so I don't actually believe that just because a person lives in Canada or the US that it should affect their way of investing unless there are return/liability matching reasons.

I view the PP like a business, that you have these individual components that together generate long term real returns that give you an edge provided those assumptions that make the PP work still hold. Given that you should leverage those returns conservatively while avoiding risk of ruin and basically allowing you to stay the course only deviating when the assumptions fail.
of course the big question is what is considered the assumption failed ?

is it the fact long term bond rates went from .99% this year to 1.73% , a 73% rise with no let up in sight and the subsequent drop in TLT ?

is it the beating gold is taking along with TLT while cash has negative real returns ?

by the time we know something failed our money is already gone effectively locking the barn after the horse got away.

so this is the dilemma pp users are facing .

while i like the PP i believe rising rates are it's kryptonite and i don't have a whole lot of faith in what was with 40 years of falling rates may still exist today as far as putting lock stock and barrel in to believing it will always do as it has.

i am not convinced that harry would not have changed things if he was alive today ... he never anticipated rates would be near zero when the idea was conceived .
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buddtholomew
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:26 am

HB did conceive of negative rates and actually took a call from an investor who couldn’t internalize why you would pay the bank to store your cash.

Nevertheless I agree with you and have removed TLT from the portfolio altogether for now.
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Mark Leavy
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Re: Long time lurker saying hi

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:27 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:18 pm
The assumptions the PP makes should be a sticky topic.

Here are some key assumptions.

...

In many ways liquidity is the indicator that will help you determine if these assumptions are still valid.
First, Welcome!
Glad to have you on board.

Second, Outstanding post. Your discussion of assumptions is a great topic. Liquidity as a bellwether is brilliant.

Mark
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