Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:21 am

Remember that silly Grayscale commercial from about 12 months ago for digital currency that was particularly anti-gold? They haven’t run it lately, although there is a new one. Can’t remember if the new one is also Grayscale or someone else. They talk about gold, wampum, etc, and then denigrate how we put “all that value into paper. That’s why it’s time to go digital, blah blah.”

Wait- how is digital better than paper again? I think I’d rather have wampum after my experience of trying to recover the bitcoin that Marc (from this forum) gave me. I was given 8 or 9 words in my passphrase, but they want 12 to unlock it.

Gold may fall again, but it sure looks better than it did 12 months ago, and all I need is my key and ID for my bank box.

Here’s that Grayscale commercial.
https://youtu.be/_BIDcmh_6Es
Tyler wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:57 am
Men working to start a bitcoin ETF promote bitcoin.

I don't completely dismiss Bitcoin as an upstart alternative currency. But I will say that if the only points in the section "the problem with gold" are asteroids and the third-best Die Hard, then I'm not too worried about gold in my lifetime.
O0
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by senecaaa » Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:07 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:21 am
Wait- how is digital better than paper again?
There is a huge list of things how bitcoin is better than paper (let me know if you are curious how), but it is still very new of course. That's why the UX is still very clumsy.

BTW Bitcoin is deflationary by definition, which is a property that can come in handy in a portfolio (not necessarily in the PP).
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:58 am

I like the idea of bitcoin as stored value. if I had some I’d give it to Tim Pool.
But i wish it were just linked to the dollar — I guess there are a few digital coins that are. You can see from the payment app thread that I like Apple Cash and Paypal.

As an inflation hedge, I just don’t know.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:34 pm

I'll just leave this here

BLOCKCHAIN AND TRUST <<< SCHNEIER ON SECURITY
Bruce wrote:In his 2008 white paper that first proposed bitcoin, the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto concluded with: "We have proposed a system for electronic transactions without relying on trust." He was referring to blockchain, the system behind bitcoin cryptocurrency. The circumvention of trust is a great promise, but it's just not true. Yes, bitcoin eliminates certain trusted intermediaries that are inherent in other payment systems like credit cards. But you still have to trust bitcoin -- and everything about it.
...
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/ ... _and_.html
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am

Bitcoin fairs very well when you compare properties side by side to gold.

But one glaring difference is that gold has already monetized. It has already become something that people treat as (the worlds second favorite) money.

Bitcoin is aspiring money and is making a great trek in the direction of monetizing. But it is not even close to done monetizing.

So if you want an asset that is money, which the PP requires, gold is it.

If you want an asset that could be more money-like in the future, bitcoin is it. And this speculation, if correct, could still have 100x upside in price appreciation. But lets not kid ourselves that this is a speculation.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am
...

So if you want an asset that is money, which the PP requires, gold is it.

If you want an asset that could be more money-like in the future, bitcoin is it. And this speculation, if correct, could still have 100x upside in price appreciation. But lets not kid ourselves that this is a speculation.
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:29 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
On the other hand, one would think that letting a lot of private entities compete in a Who Wants To Create Moneyouttaair game to come up with the best one, using their own time and resources, would be a more efficient way to have it happen. So, let all the people develop their own blockchain, pioneer the technology, and then start using the best one?

Hell, maybe it's not even the best outcome for the whole world to pick one; if Asia likes to use Ethereum, and the Americas likes Bitcoin, and Europe prefers Litecoin, maybe that would work. Those are the only ones I know, but I hope that made sense. Come at me bros.
Last edited by Kriegsspiel on Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:22 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am
...

So if you want an asset that is money, which the PP requires, gold is it.

If you want an asset that could be more money-like in the future, bitcoin is it. And this speculation, if correct, could still have 100x upside in price appreciation. But lets not kid ourselves that this is a speculation.
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
Hey, I have an idea!
What if money consisted of a relatively rare metal with a lot of desirable characteristics?
I wonder why no one has ever thought of that before...
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by dualstow » Sat Oct 10, 2020 6:27 am

O0 Gold isn’t perfect either, but I will (and do) take it over bitcoin any day.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:06 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am
...

So if you want an asset that is money, which the PP requires, gold is it.

If you want an asset that could be more money-like in the future, bitcoin is it. And this speculation, if correct, could still have 100x upside in price appreciation. But lets not kid ourselves that this is a speculation.
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
Gold rewarded those hoarding it over its monetization history. And most of that hoarding was done via pillaging and war, not simple burning of energy. Speaking of which...

Most of bitcoin mining is done using renewable energy. This incentivizes additional clean energy developments. It also frees up clean energy production in areas where it currently wouldn't make sense (Australian outback and whatnot).

"governments included". Governments money printing monopolies will not want to adopt any sort of fixed supply currency or one they cannot control. Bitcoin is inherently anti governments.

"They should". Money, Bitcoin, and life is about incentives, not "should".
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:09 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:29 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
On the other hand, one would think that letting a lot of private entities compete in a Who Wants To Make Moneyouttaair game to come up with the best one, using their own time and resources, would be a more efficient way to have it happen. So, let all the people develop their own blockchain, pioneer the technology, and then start using the best one?

Hell, maybe it's not even the best outcome for the whole world to pick one; if Asia likes to use Ethereum, and the Americas likes Bitcoin, and Europe prefers Litecoin, maybe that would work. Those are the only ones I know, but I hope that made sense. Come at me bros.
This sounds reasonable on the surface, many moneys. However due to the schelling point of such things as money, a single victor will eventually emerge, especially in free markets.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:11 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:22 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am
...

So if you want an asset that is money, which the PP requires, gold is it.

If you want an asset that could be more money-like in the future, bitcoin is it. And this speculation, if correct, could still have 100x upside in price appreciation. But lets not kid ourselves that this is a speculation.
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
Hey, I have an idea!
What if money consisted of a relatively rare metal with a lot of desirable characteristics?
I wonder why no one has ever thought of that before...
Gold standard has been tried and failed due to golds property of being in the physical world leading to centralization of it by entities with monopolies on violence.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by dualstow » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:32 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:06 am
dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
Gold rewarded those hoarding it over its monetization history. And most of that hoarding was done via pillaging and war, not simple burning of energy. Speaking of which...
True, but that doesn’t mean the experiment should be repeated anew.
The original hoarders are dead, gold is well estabished, nothing is perfect, and I have to go with *something*. That’s gold.
Ideally, though, see “start from scratch” above.
b.i.t.vp wrote:
Most of bitcoin mining is done using renewable energy.

Says CoinShares, “ a cryptocurrency asset management and analysis firm.”
I’m reluctant to cite shitty Vox, but be skeptical.
vox wrote:analysts are skeptical
...
it’s challenging to figure out just what the energy supply is. Since the network is spread all over the world, bitcoin miners often want to remain anonymous and keep their operations opaque.
https://www.vox.com/2019/6/18/18642645/ ... able-china
bitcoin-in-the-vp wrote: "governments included". Governments money printing monopolies will not want to adopt any sort of fixed supply currency or one they cannot control. Bitcoin is inherently anti governments.
I know, but i’m not.
"They should". Money, Bitcoin, and life is about incentives, not "should".
Sounds like an argument for murdering your neighbor for his cash and his wife if one can get away with it. No, life is very much about should, and incentives too.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:30 pm

I agree with most of what you said above.
dualstow wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:32 am
Sounds like an argument for murdering your neighbor for his cash and his wife if one can get away with it. No, life is very much about should, and incentives too.
Off topic but:
The only reason you dont do this is because you perceive bad consequences from it. Those bad consequences could be police, sure, but also your own conscience eternally making you feel bad is a bad potential consequence to avoid. Even our boy Harry said something like "from what grounds could I convince the thief that stealing is bad if he believes he will get good consequences from it". The only way is showing how his bad acts will affect him. Not a general "should". This is from the Rule Your World audio book.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:15 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:09 am
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:29 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
On the other hand, one would think that letting a lot of private entities compete in a Who Wants To Make Moneyouttaair game to come up with the best one, using their own time and resources, would be a more efficient way to have it happen. So, let all the people develop their own blockchain, pioneer the technology, and then start using the best one?

Hell, maybe it's not even the best outcome for the whole world to pick one; if Asia likes to use Ethereum, and the Americas likes Bitcoin, and Europe prefers Litecoin, maybe that would work. Those are the only ones I know, but I hope that made sense. Come at me bros.
This sounds reasonable on the surface, many moneys. However due to the schelling point of such things as money, a single victor will eventually emerge, especially in free markets.
Fine with me; that still sounds better than a government decreeing one.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by doodle » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:49 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:11 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:22 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:20 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am
...

So if you want an asset that is money, which the PP requires, gold is it.

If you want an asset that could be more money-like in the future, bitcoin is it. And this speculation, if correct, could still have 100x upside in price appreciation. But lets not kid ourselves that this is a speculation.
If the world were to agree on a new form of money, governments included, they should start from scratch instead of rewarding people who hoarded it (and burned through the world's oil in the process of mining it) before it was money. They should use something besides bitcoin. A naive thought, perhaps, but I might be in the majority.
Hey, I have an idea!
What if money consisted of a relatively rare metal with a lot of desirable characteristics?
I wonder why no one has ever thought of that before...
Gold standard has been tried and failed due to golds property of being in the physical world leading to centralization of it by entities with monopolies on violence.
I don't see why Bitcoin is immune from government attack either. Im really on the fence about Bitcoin. Maybe I'm just too old to get it. Really it's the insane volatility that drives me to the sidelines. Gold, stocks, and long bonds are a wild ride sometimes....Bitcoins movements make me want to puke.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:56 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:49 pm
I don't see why Bitcoin is immune from government attack either. Im really on the fence about Bitcoin. Maybe I'm just too old to get it. Really it's the insane volatility that drives me to the sidelines. Gold, stocks, and long bonds are a wild ride sometimes....Bitcoins movements make me want to puke.
Gold's weakness was/is that its physical. It made it easy to take during war, it benefited from physical centralization and paper issuance, it could be found hidden in your house during 6102, taken at a country border.

Bitcoin can literally be stored in your head (using 24 memorized words, although I dont recommend it, people forget and lose funds) or on paper or digital form. So in this specific regard Bitcoin has an advantage.

As a thought experiment...
Of course if US said tomorrow that Bitcoin is illegal, there would be a group of folks that would listen, turn in their bitcoins, and the price would drop near term as a result. But others in the US would choose to ignore that request and continue stealthily accumulating more bitcoins. Likewise, enemy governments of the US might then even have incentive to promote bitcoin. And some jurisdictions could attract bitcoin capital by legislating laws that are specifically pro bitcoin.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:37 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:56 pm

Gold's weakness was/is that its physical. It made it easy to take during war, it benefited from physical centralization and paper issuance, it could be found hidden in your house during 6102, taken at a country border.

Bitcoin can literally be stored in your head (using 24 memorized words, although I dont recommend it, people forget and lose funds) or on paper or digital form. So in this specific regard Bitcoin has an advantage.
Full agree.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by anato » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm

What about the downside of complete traceability of every single transaction that has ever happened and will ever happen?
That sounds like the wet dream of any government.

Is the anonymity guaranteed just by the fact that nobody knows it's me who has generated *this* private key?
Nowadays with big data this feels like a really thin protection, when used as cash.
As a store of value, I would expect at a certain point to be able to exchange it for services (food, shelter, a new car, whatever), at which point the anonymity is gone... for all the transactions I've ever made and will ever make.

As for a way to prevent appropriation from the governement, it would just make it more complicated... but they'd just knock to my door and take away the laptop/phone/USB key/... instead of the bag of coins. Thugs could do the same, and worse they could do it online by tricking my old mother who's using my laptop to check her email into clicking a bad link.

So overall I really see no reason to use it, either as money or as a store of value.

Or am I missing something?
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by doodle » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:58 pm

Bitcoin strikes me as a way to drum up big returns in a world where there isn't any. It's one of the last assets that truly has the potential to go to the moon because the market for bitcoing is curently so small. If it starts attracting institutional money it could literally go up 20, 30, even 100 times. It's the ultimate speculation. I'm kind of looking at it like a lottery ticket. I haven't purchased anything yet but might not be a bad gamble to hold one coin.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by johnnywitt » Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:00 pm

doodle wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:58 pm
Bitcoin strikes me as a way to drum up big returns in a world where there isn't any. It's one of the last assets that truly has the potential to go to the moon because the market for bitcoing is curently so small. If it starts attracting institutional money it could literally go up 20, 30, even 100 times. It's the ultimate speculation. I'm kind of looking at it like a lottery ticket. I haven't purchased anything yet but might not be a bad gamble to hold one coin.
That's where I'm at doodle. I think that Bitcoin will go down pretty much as Jim Rodgers believes it will; however, one might be smart to
hedge that thesis a little in their VP. Maybe it will turn out landing somewhere in between the Rauol Pal, Max Keiser viewpoint and Jim Rodgers views in the end.
Unlike Gold, you have to transfer back into the system with Bitcoin, whereas you can completely, pretty much anyway, accomplish the opposite with the PM's.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:44 am

anato wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm
What about the downside of complete traceability of every single transaction that has ever happened and will ever happen?
That sounds like the wet dream of any government.
"Complete traceability" isnt necessarily correct. You can transact more or less privately. You can mine coins anonymously for example. Or buy some coins from someone with cash, etc. Or you can use Coinbase and announce your ownership of coins to the world.

After you own the coins you can improve privacy using coinjoin or mixing techniques to obfuscate history more.
anato wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm
Is the anonymity guaranteed just by the fact that nobody knows it's me who has generated *this* private key?
Nowadays with big data this feels like a really thin protection, when used as cash.
Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous. Meaning its addresses function like an identity.

In terms of private key/public key protections, this cryptography is decades old and battle tested. And the same math/crypto protects the modern Internet and banking which are bigger targets at the moment anyways.
anato wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm
As a store of value, I would expect at a certain point to be able to exchange it for services (food, shelter, a new car, whatever), at which point the anonymity is gone... for all the transactions I've ever made and will ever make.
See above with regard to transacting using coinjoin or other techniques that break this tracking ability. Further privacy protections are available as well.
anato wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm
As for a way to prevent appropriation from the governement, it would just make it more complicated... but they'd just knock to my door and take away the laptop/phone/USB key/... instead of the bag of coins. Thugs could do the same, and worse they could do it online by tricking my old mother who's using my laptop to check her email into clicking a bad link.
There is a difference between complete anonymity for acquisition, transacting, and holding coins and Bitcoin being "better" seizure resistance than gold.
anato wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm
So overall I really see no reason to use it, either as money or as a store of value.

Or am I missing something?
If you dont see a fixed supply, censorship resistant, seizure resistant, inflation resistant, instantly transactable, programmable digital money being increasingly useful into the future than I think you are missing something.

If your expectations are that Bitcoin needs to be censorship-proof, seizure-proof, etc, in order to be useful or accrue value, than I think you are perhaps letting perfect be the enemy of good here.
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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:46 am

johnnywitt wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:00 pm
Unlike Gold, you have to transfer back into the system with Bitcoin, whereas you can completely, pretty much anyway, accomplish the opposite with the PM's.
I dont understand why Bitcoin requires transfer back into the system while gold does not.

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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:49 am

doodle wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:58 pm
Bitcoin strikes me as a way to drum up big returns in a world where there isn't any. It's one of the last assets that truly has the potential to go to the moon because the market for bitcoing is curently so small. If it starts attracting institutional money it could literally go up 20, 30, even 100 times. It's the ultimate speculation. I'm kind of looking at it like a lottery ticket. I haven't purchased anything yet but might not be a bad gamble to hold one coin.
It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If
enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling
prophecy.


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Re: Winkelvoss Capital says Bitcoin is a 10x better inflation hedge than gold

Post by garya505 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:30 pm

I would agree that the PP could benefit from some additional diversification, especially since stock evaluations are so high and bond yields are at an all time low. However, I think bitcoin doesn't have much of a track record and I believe that it would be highly speculative to assume anything about it's long-term gains.

I think an additional asset class for the PP might include additional diversifiers like merger&arbitrage (MNA, MERFX, ARBFX, etc.) and options-based event-driven strategies (IVOL, SWAN, TAIL, etc.).

What would Harry Browne design if he were alive today? Might it take a hint from portfolios like the Golden Butterfly or Dragon portfolios that have 5 asset classes rather than just 4? What might this 5th PP asset class contain?

EDIT: I'm going to name this the PP5 portfolio.
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