Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

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If you’ve been running an HBPP since February or earlier, is it meeting your expectations?

Poll ended at Fri May 22, 2020 4:08 pm

Yes
33
100%
No
0
No votes
No, but I don’t see a better option
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 33
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dualstow
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Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by dualstow » Thu May 14, 2020 4:08 pm

If you’ve been running an HBPP* since February or earlier, is it meeting your expectations?
EDIT: or Golden Butterfly (GB) portfolio

[*]Yes
[*]No
[*]No, but I don’t see a better option
Last edited by dualstow on Fri May 15, 2020 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Smith1776
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Smith1776 » Thu May 14, 2020 4:17 pm

Passed with flying colours! O0.

EDIT: For reference here is the performance of the Goldsmith PP since the start of this year according to Portfolio Visualizer.


cdnpp.png
cdnpp.png (79.33 KiB) Viewed 8778 times
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by dualstow » Thu May 14, 2020 6:26 pm

Nice! O0 Or as Ricky from Trailer Park Boys says, “passed with flying f____ carpets!”
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Smith1776 » Thu May 14, 2020 7:45 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 6:26 pm
Nice! O0 Or as Ricky from Trailer Park Boys says, “passed with flying f____ carpets!”
I discovered the PP back in 2016 or so, so this was my first market crash since adopting the portfolio. Now that I think about it, this is the first market crash I've experienced at all since I started investing (tail end of 2009).
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by PP67 » Fri May 15, 2020 8:11 am

My quasi-GBish portfolio is down 3% from my 2/21/2020 peak which Iooks like it is working to me...
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Vil » Fri May 15, 2020 8:14 am

Sometimes I even forget to check what's going on with my PP, its hovering around 4.5% YTD... VP is way more interesting those days (read 'as usual') ;D
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by anato » Fri May 15, 2020 7:05 pm

My GB-ish portfolio is down ~4% since peak in late Feb, so working just as intended, with added bonus of some losses harvested in March.
And working from home with very small kids it's really a godsent, I just have no energy left to care about what goes on in the market more than once a month when I'm lucky...
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri May 15, 2020 7:13 pm

I've said this before but I never get tired of reiterating the point. The stability of the PP is more than about minimizing standard deviation. It's about maximizing quality of life.

I have no idea what the future brings and nobody else does either. Why not embrace uncertainty instead of embracing the BS crystal ball predictions of the talking heads on CNBC?

I go about my day to day financial life with no worries about the market and where it may or may not be headed.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by dualstow » Fri May 15, 2020 7:36 pm

PP67 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 8:11 am
My quasi-GBish portfolio is down 3% from my 2/21/2020 peak which Iooks like it is working to me...
anato wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 7:05 pm
My GB-ish portfolio is down ~4% since peak in late Feb, so working just as intended, with added bonus of some losses harvested in March.
And working from home with very small kids it's really a godsent, I just have no energy left to care about what goes on in the market more than once a month when I'm lucky...
I should include the Golden Butterfly as it's really close. Unlike zero cash portfolios (ok short term bonds) or flirting with bitcoin, I think the Golden Butterfly is totally in the spirit of the HBPP. I'll edit the OP.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri May 15, 2020 10:16 pm

The GB does indeed fit within the spirit of Browne's philosophy and the overall PP strategy.

For some reason though I still prefer to think of the GB as a PP with a slice of SCV in a VP.

Wow, that was a weird sentence.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by steve » Sat May 16, 2020 7:26 am

Annotation 2020-04-26 093306.jpg
Annotation 2020-04-26 093306.jpg (175.41 KiB) Viewed 8516 times
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by dualstow » Sat May 16, 2020 8:46 am

Nice chart, steve.
Smith1776 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:16 pm
The GB does indeed fit within the spirit of Browne's philosophy and the overall PP strategy.

For some reason though I still prefer to think of the GB as a PP with a slice of SCV in a VP.

Wow, that was a weird sentence.
Sounds like rap lyrics.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Smith1776 » Sat May 16, 2020 5:58 pm

I really love how every vote on this poll is yes.

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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by snedgar » Sun May 17, 2020 2:03 pm

The best part is that my wife now thinks I'm brilliant because we made money when everyone was freaking out about the crashing economy >:D
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Smith1776 » Sun May 17, 2020 2:50 pm

snedgar wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 2:03 pm
The best part is that my wife now thinks I'm brilliant because we made money when everyone was freaking out about the crashing economy >:D
Don't be afraid to give yourself credit. Given how unpopular the PP is I think it takes a different kind of intellect to fully adopt and deploy it.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by sophie » Mon May 18, 2020 8:39 am

It's doing what it does best!

It's not making money, but it's held its value. The Bogleheads portfolios haven't done too badly, but my 60/40 is down 10%. Considering that the PP includes all your cash needs (which the Bogleheads portfolio does not) that is pretty darn awesome.

It seriously increases my confidence that this is the portfolio to retire on...as long as you remember to keep it balanced. I am getting to see what a 100% stock portfolio with minimal cash looks like in this situation. The dividends and carryover losses from selling the duds do help a bit, but my mother's already had to rely on a margin loan once to cover a cash flow deficit. Not good, but it was better than selling stocks that have dropped in value.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Ugly_Bird » Mon May 18, 2020 10:50 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 2:50 pm
I think it takes a different kind of intellect to fully adopt and deploy it.
For me it was no intellect at all as I didn't have enough brain to figure something else. So, I was one of very few who listen to friends's advise about PP.
I'm totally thankful to him :-)
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Hal » Mon May 18, 2020 12:08 pm

sophie wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:39 am
It seriously increases my confidence that this is the portfolio to retire on...as long as you remember to keep it balanced. I am getting to see what a 100% stock portfolio with minimal cash looks like in this situation. The dividends and carryover losses from selling the duds do help a bit, but my mother's already had to rely on a margin loan once to cover a cash flow deficit. Not good, but it was better than selling stocks that have dropped in value.
No worries "down under".

Sophie, perhaps this link may be of use to your mother.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/2014 ... short.html
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Smith1776 » Mon May 18, 2020 8:11 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:50 am

For me it was no intellect at all as I didn't have enough brain to figure something else. So, I was one of very few who listen to friends's advise about PP.
I'm totally thankful to him :-)
I also think you need to give yourself more credit.

I must say though, reading this comment about not having enough brains while also looking at your avatar is hilarious!
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by pp4me » Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm

Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by pmward » Tue May 19, 2020 5:14 pm

pp4me wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm
Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.
When you do look you'll probably be surprised that it's held up better than you think it has. Long bonds, gold, and the stock rebound since late March have all helped greatly.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by pp4me » Tue May 19, 2020 8:11 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:14 pm
pp4me wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm
Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.
When you do look you'll probably be surprised that it's held up better than you think it has. Long bonds, gold, and the stock rebound since late March have all helped greatly.
I have a little bit of VBR in my IRA so I can't help but notice it when I take a look. It's the only thing in the red nowadays - down 26% since I purchased it but that was only back in December so it doesn't have a very long track record. The rest is all LTT's, gold, and cash - all doing great.

The rest of the SCV to make up the 20% allocation is in our Roth IRA's because I thought it was a good bet for long term growth. Not looking good right now but like I said - "long term" so no point in even looking at those accounts.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue May 19, 2020 8:37 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:11 pm
I must say though, reading this comment about not having enough brains while also looking at your avatar is hilarious!
;)
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by gizmo_rat » Wed May 20, 2020 5:00 am

All good PP is up about 4% (has never hit a rebalance point in 10 years), however my Global 50/50 VP is only down about 1.5 %.

I’m very slowly tidying up into a GB ish type allocation for the longer term...Unless I lose my nerve, 10 years without a loss, still loss averse 😉.
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Re: Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 7:48 am

pp4me wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm
Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.
There's always a dog dragging the portfolio down - by definition. It was gold in 2013, for example. You have to look at it not as a dud asset to get rid of, but rather as a buying opportunity. And certainly not as a "bet". Betting is exactly what you don't want to be doing with your core investments.

The small cap losses make total sense because small businesses are being impacted much worse than large ones. I doubt very much that the small business model is dead though. It may take time, years maybe, but small business will come back. When that happens you'll realize that you bought a ton of SCV at fire sale prices. And that you sold gold and bonds at high prices in order to do it. What's not to like about that?
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