Is your pp passing the coronavirus test?

[Smith1776]

I really love how every vote on this poll is yes.

The Permanent Portfolio just works.

[snedgar]

The best part is that my wife now thinks I'm brilliant because we made money when everyone was freaking out about the crashing economy

[Smith1776]

The best part is that my wife now thinks I'm brilliant because we made money when everyone was freaking out about the crashing economy

Don't be afraid to give yourself credit. Given how unpopular the PP is I think it takes a different kind of intellect to fully adopt and deploy it.

[sophie]

It's doing what it does best!

It's not making money, but it's held its value. The Bogleheads portfolios haven't done too badly, but my 60/40 is down 10%. Considering that the PP includes all your cash needs (which the Bogleheads portfolio does not) that is pretty darn awesome.

It seriously increases my confidence that this is the portfolio to retire on...as long as you remember to keep it balanced. I am getting to see what a 100% stock portfolio with minimal cash looks like in this situation. The dividends and carryover losses from selling the duds do help a bit, but my mother's already had to rely on a margin loan once to cover a cash flow deficit. Not good, but it was better than selling stocks that have dropped in value.

[Ugly_Bird]

I think it takes a different kind of intellect to fully adopt and deploy it.

For me it was no intellect at all as I didn't have enough brain to figure something else. So, I was one of very few who listen to friends's advise about PP.
I'm totally thankful to him :-)

[Hal]

It seriously increases my confidence that this is the portfolio to retire on...as long as you remember to keep it balanced. I am getting to see what a 100% stock portfolio with minimal cash looks like in this situation. The dividends and carryover losses from selling the duds do help a bit, but my mother's already had to rely on a margin loan once to cover a cash flow deficit. Not good, but it was better than selling stocks that have dropped in value.

No worries "down under".

Sophie, perhaps this link may be of use to your mother.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/2014 ... short.html

[Smith1776]

For me it was no intellect at all as I didn't have enough brain to figure something else. So, I was one of very few who listen to friends's advise about PP.
I'm totally thankful to him :-)

I also think you need to give yourself more credit.

I must say though, reading this comment about not having enough brains while also looking at your avatar is hilarious!

[pp4me]

Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

[pmward]

Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

When you do look you'll probably be surprised that it's held up better than you think it has. Long bonds, gold, and the stock rebound since late March have all helped greatly.

[pp4me]

Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

When you do look you'll probably be surprised that it's held up better than you think it has. Long bonds, gold, and the stock rebound since late March have all helped greatly.

I have a little bit of VBR in my IRA so I can't help but notice it when I take a look. It's the only thing in the red nowadays - down 26% since I purchased it but that was only back in December so it doesn't have a very long track record. The rest is all LTT's, gold, and cash - all doing great.

The rest of the SCV to make up the 20% allocation is in our Roth IRA's because I thought it was a good bet for long term growth. Not looking good right now but like I said - "long term" so no point in even looking at those accounts.

[Ugly_Bird]

I must say though, reading this comment about not having enough brains while also looking at your avatar is hilarious!

[gizmo_rat]

All good PP is up about 4% (has never hit a rebalance point in 10 years), however my Global 50/50 VP is only down about 1.5 %.

I’m very slowly tidying up into a GB ish type allocation for the longer term...Unless I lose my nerve, 10 years without a loss, still loss averse .

[sophie]

Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

There's always a dog dragging the portfolio down - by definition. It was gold in 2013, for example. You have to look at it not as a dud asset to get rid of, but rather as a buying opportunity. And certainly not as a "bet". Betting is exactly what you don't want to be doing with your core investments.

The small cap losses make total sense because small businesses are being impacted much worse than large ones. I doubt very much that the small business model is dead though. It may take time, years maybe, but small business will come back. When that happens you'll realize that you bought a ton of SCV at fire sale prices. And that you sold gold and bonds at high prices in order to do it. What's not to like about that?

[pmward]

Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

There's always a dog dragging the portfolio down - by definition. It was gold in 2013, for example. You have to look at it not as a dud asset to get rid of, but rather as a buying opportunity. And certainly not as a "bet". Betting is exactly what you don't want to be doing with your core investments.

The small cap losses make total sense because small businesses are being impacted much worse than large ones. I doubt very much that the small business model is dead though. It may take time, years maybe, but small business will come back. When that happens you'll realize that you bought a ton of SCV at fire sale prices. And that you sold gold and bonds at high prices in order to do it. What's not to like about that?

Yep, in a buy and rebalance system the magic is in the forced buying low and selling high. Human psychology is setup to want to buy high and sell low. You see people struggling with this here and on bogleheads all the time. If people follow the rules of the system it prevents this from happening. It's not always easy to adhere to those rules though.

[snedgar]

The rules are The Magic!

When I hit a re-balance band i just smile and collect my "re-balancing premium."

[Dieter]

GB-ish portfolio for retirement funds, starting in 2012(?).

I'd be better off financially if I hadn't back then, but I don't worry like I did in the last two big market downturns.

So, yeah. Doing what I hoped.

[Fredmong]

All good PP is up about 4% (has never hit a rebalance point in 10 years)

How did that happen ? No rebalancing in the past 10 years ?!
Real curious, are you checking for rebalancing only once a year ?

Thanks

[gizmo_rat]

I look every month or 2 and use 15/35 bands, IIRC the (UK) PP has only hit a band a handful of times since the 70’s.

My stocks are down to 17%, I can barely contain my excitement

[I Shrugged]

Today (cherry picking), my PP is up 1% YTD. I'm pleased with that.

[sophie]

My GB was within a percentage point of flat when I rebalanced a few weeks ago, and since then it's up 3%. Mostly because the small cap value funds I held my nose and bought are up almost 10%.

In contrast, the "normal" three-fund portfolio in my gold-deficient 403b plan is down 4% YTD. Not too bad actually, but certainly easier to handle since I have the GB protecting those retirement accounts from my having to dip into them prematurely.

[Cortopassi]

Mine is up 6.17%, high for the year.

You could have asked me to bet money at the end of March if this would be the case. I would have lost.

I have read quite a few times over the past couple months "The stock market is not the economy." What a perfect example.

[sophie]

I have read quite a few times over the past couple months "The stock market is not the economy." What a perfect example.

Well put!!! It is almost mystifying what the market is doing. Perhaps it's gold that most accurately reflects the uncertainty - it's remained high, well over 1700.

[mathjak107]

Only 5% of the s&p index is airlines ,hotels , leisure ,restaurants and cruises ...they have little effect on the markets indexes.

25% is internet sales , online information services and social media .....

Plus layoffs go right to the company bottom line ...remember they don’t have to show profits ...they just have do do less bad than estimates...so Main Street and Wall Street have little in common early on