Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

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dualstow
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by dualstow » Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:04 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:20 pm
..It doesn’t take cash from your bank reserves to pay employees to stay home and not work. Feh! what good is it?
Hey Tom, if you’re going to going to put Yiddish interjections into make-believe Boglehead quotes, know that feh is almost always an expression of disgust, no matter what wiktionary says.
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:52 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:00 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:41 am
null
I’m lovin’ your null posts.

I would love to meet a Zen master on a forum, just so I could quote him.
Zhaozhou Congshen wrote: Null
Be one with the null! ^-^
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Knucklehead (noun): Someone who knows the expense ratio of everything but the value of nothing.
The true measurement of a person's worth isn't what they say they believe in, but what they do in defense of those beliefs. If you're not acting on your beliefs, then they probably aren't real. - Edward Snowden
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by CT-Scott » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:25 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:41 am
I will have no part in recruiting the riffraff of the Knuckleheads forum into our elite club. ;D That's like putting regular gasoline into a sports car.

If any of them see reason and join of their own volition, that's a different story though. O0
Ha, I love it! So I'm guessing because we don't see the red-fonted moderator notations in those "null" posts, that you were the one who deliberately nulled them out so as to deny the Knuckleheads whatever wisdom you had previously blessed upon them, and later decided they were unworthy of?

I think we need a heavy-handed moderator here, but with only one rule (at least, for now), where the rule is that any reference to the "Bogleheads forum" will be replaced with the "Knuckleheads forum". First time is free, 2nd time gets a warning, 3rd time a 24-hour ban (I'm kidding, but for those that are unaware, that's the sort of thing they do over there).
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:11 am

CT-Scott wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:25 am
Ha, I love it! So I'm guessing because we don't see the red-fonted moderator notations in those "null" posts, that you were the one who deliberately nulled them out so as to deny the Knuckleheads whatever wisdom you had previously blessed upon them, and later decided they were unworthy of?

I think we need a heavy-handed moderator here, but with only one rule (at least, for now), where the rule is that any reference to the "Bogleheads forum" will be replaced with the "Knuckleheads forum". First time is free, 2nd time gets a warning, 3rd time a 24-hour ban (I'm kidding, but for those that are unaware, that's the sort of thing they do over there).
Hahahahaha. Something along those lines, though I'm not sure I have a ton of wisdom. Joking aside, I just want to distance myself and not associate too strongly with that crowd anymore. I'll still lurk for the interesting topics, but I don't think I'll be posting there anymore.

To kind of elaborate, Larry Swedroe's last post there sort of summed it up for me very nicely for me.
I'll close with this last post on Bogleheads for me, removing it from my favorites list so won't be checking any longer, which is sad. What's sad is that this used to be a place where one could have a good discussion on various topics and just agree to disagree. Now this has become a "religious" site IMO [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek], where if you disagree you are EVIL, have bad intentions. So you get only one side of any viewpoint and learn nothing, because you learn from those you DISAGREE with it, and you become subject more and more to confirmation bias. One reason I enjoyed the discussions was you got challenged and had to defend positions, and if could not you learned something, and if could you learned something as well. But that type discussion is no longer possible here so I'm saying farewell, not goodbye.
The moderating in the middle of the paragraph just accentuates why I'm not a fan of the place anymore. We can't have a conversation and say anything real, for fear of the Knucklehead Thought Police cracking down on us. ::)
PP + VP + Bank Cash + Physical Bullion
Knucklehead (noun): Someone who knows the expense ratio of everything but the value of nothing.
The true measurement of a person's worth isn't what they say they believe in, but what they do in defense of those beliefs. If you're not acting on your beliefs, then they probably aren't real. - Edward Snowden
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by Kbg » Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:26 pm

Techno,

You worked for HB, really?

Also...please expand on your "he wouldn't do LTTs now" comment. The most interesting PP related comment I've heard for a good while. I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on this.

From a value/expected long term returns perspective, bond nominal returns are about as easy as it gets and with this rationale buying LTTs borders on pure stupidity. The flip side is convexity.
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:09 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:26 pm
Techno,
Unless he deleted it, he didn’t even post in this thread. You were looking for a bond thread, right?
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by CT-Scott » Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:36 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:09 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:26 pm
Techno,
Unless he deleted it, he didn’t even post in this thread. You were looking for a bond thread, right?
He's posted a couple of times recently in the Knuckleheads thread linked to in this thread. I think that's where he mentioned having worked for HB.
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:17 am

Ah, thank you. I searched this thread, but not the older one.

I do remember much older conversations about tech procuring some internal computer components(?) software for Harry Browne.
↳ here’s some: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10658
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by technovelist » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:22 pm

Kbg wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:26 pm
Techno,

You worked for HB, really?

Also...please expand on your "he wouldn't do LTTs now" comment. The most interesting PP related comment I've heard for a good while. I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on this.

From a value/expected long term returns perspective, bond nominal returns are about as easy as it gets and with this rationale buying LTTs borders on pure stupidity. The flip side is convexity.
Yes, I wrote some software for him to speed up some calculations on his HP 9845 "personal computer". It had some kind of "internal language" to add functions to the BASIC interpreter. That's what I wrote the software in.

I don't think he would be interested in LTTs at these ridiculously low interest rates with insane amounts of money printing going on at the same time.

It's obvious to me that one (or both) of these events is now virtually assured in the relatively short term:
1. The dollar is destroyed by the Fed's continuing money printing.
2. The Fed stops printing money and the bond interest rate goes to what it would be in a free market, which would be much higher than it is now because all the borrowers would have to compete.

If either of these happens, bonds will be toast.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by Kbg » Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:05 pm

I don't think it's that simple...the dollar is always relative to another currency and all the other majors and minors are doing the same thing.

Not saying LTTs are a good deal, back to convexity and perceived flight to quality. It's easy enough to not have to guess...just watch inflation measurements.
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by craigr » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:28 am

Kevin K. wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:42 pm
It was indeed great fun to read the witty William Bernstein quote! If only the rest of the crew on that forum had a fraction of Bernstein's brilliance and sincere appreciation of risk parity portfolios like the PP. His book "Deep Risk" is essentially a dialogue with Craig's writing on the PP and Browne's work itself and for me anyway helped me appreciate the PP more and, especially, made me realize how brilliant the Golden Butterfly iteration of the PP is.
Bill Bernstein and I are friends and when I am visiting in town where he lives I have gone to his house for dinner with him and his lovely wife. I talked to him quite a bit when he wrote the book Deep Risk and am mentioned in the acknowledgements which is why is why it has my overtones in it I suspect.

I think Bill's main critique of the PP is that it has tracking error vs. a more conventional portfolio. This is completely valid to me. This is probably why the portfolio tends to attract very engineer/technical/introvert types that are able to detach themselves emotionally I feel. It takes a certain personality to take the Red Pill and just let go of trying to predict the markets. It also takes a certain kind of person that is OK with a portfolio that just tries to ride the middle and doesn't get worked up when Bob in Accounting is bragging about their 22.7% gains in TechCorp stock that year.

I think the PP really incorporates philosophy of being very detached yet prepared for the unexpected. One thing I've always liked about the portfolio is that it gives you options to respond to extraordinary scenarios. You can hang tight, but if things are going truly off the rails you aren't so locked into a single asset that you lose everything. It's important in a crisis to always have options available to respond even if you don't have to use them. For me, that PP does exactly that.
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Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected

Post by technovelist » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:34 am

craigr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:28 am
Kevin K. wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:42 pm
It was indeed great fun to read the witty William Bernstein quote! If only the rest of the crew on that forum had a fraction of Bernstein's brilliance and sincere appreciation of risk parity portfolios like the PP. His book "Deep Risk" is essentially a dialogue with Craig's writing on the PP and Browne's work itself and for me anyway helped me appreciate the PP more and, especially, made me realize how brilliant the Golden Butterfly iteration of the PP is.
Bill Bernstein and I are friends and when I am visiting in town where he lives I have gone to his house for dinner with him and his lovely wife. I talked to him quite a bit when he wrote the book Deep Risk and am mentioned in the acknowledgements which is why is why it has my overtones in it I suspect.

I think Bill's main critique of the PP is that it has tracking error vs. a more conventional portfolio. This is completely valid to me. This is probably why the portfolio tends to attract very engineer/technical/introvert types that are able to detach themselves emotionally I feel. It takes a certain personality to take the Red Pill and just let go of trying to predict the markets. It also takes a certain kind of person that is OK with a portfolio that just tries to ride the middle and doesn't get worked up when Bob in Accounting is bragging about their 22.7% gains in TechCorp stock that year.
Yes, FOMO is a powerful emotion for many people. Unfortunately FOMO seems to make them forget how difficult it is to "stay the course" with a 50-50 stock/bond portfolio when the stock market is tanking, which is why there are so many threads about that on Knuckleheads when that occurs.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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