Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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vnatale
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by vnatale » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:58 am

CT-Scott wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:18 pm
turbo8214 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:34 pm
You can buy gold via your Vanguard Roth, but it will need to be a Brokerage account. You can convert it to Brokerage if not already one.
So, I jumped onto Vinny's thread in the Gold subforum here:
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=10119

But, yeah, it looks like my Vanguard Roth IRA account might not work, after all. I just tried simulating exchanging some funds for AAAU and it wasn't coming up as an option. You said that I could "convert it to a Brokerage". Is that true of a Vanguard Roth IRA?

In any case, I think I can still buy gold via my side-business 401k account administered through TD Ameritrade.
Two days ago when I had my one and one-half hour discussion with a Vanguard broker representative, I believe that he told me that I could not pair up a brokerage account with my Roth Solo 401(k). But I believe that somewhere along the line they'd already created and paired up a brokerage account to go with my Roth IRA account.

A regular representative may able to able an answer this question. But it may only the broker side who can answer. I wheedled out a representative a direct phone number to the broker side so you can start there right away instead of going through a long hold on the regular representative end: 800-669-0514
. Chris Hancock was the extremely informative person I spoke to and his extension is: 65109.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
tarentola
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by tarentola » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:34 am

My intention a few posts back was not to talk up gold in particular, but rather to talk up asset diversification in general. Gold is an example of a diviersifier which is largely ignored by financial advisers - allegedly because they cannot make much money from advising you to invest in it.

Meb Faber has an interesting post https://mebfaber.com/2020/03/05/the-sta ... portfolio/:
Nearly every allocation (or single asset class) will likely decline by at least 30% on a real basis – and probably more – in your lifetime.
He also has some sobering figures about the max drawdown of conventional portfolios like 60/40.
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Tyler
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Tyler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:40 pm

Following up on the data for portfolio drawdowns, I just posted a new article looking at the recovery side of the equation. I figure you guys will find it interesting as well. :)

Welcome to the Big Bounce
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Kevin K.
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm

Tyler wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:40 pm
Following up on the data for portfolio drawdowns, I just posted a new article looking at the recovery side of the equation. I figure you guys will find it interesting as well. :)

Welcome to the Big Bounce
I'm tempted to say you've outdone yourself with this post Tyler but I know better by now because I think that after just about every new post on your site. But this one is a keeper that I so wish all my stoic Bogleheads friends would read.

And how's this for interesting timing? Your post arrived in my in box just a few hours after this one from Chris Mamula over at "Can I Retire Yet?" about his process of looking into adding gold to his portfolio. Porfolio Charts is prominently mentioned in the article and you'll note that a couple of us fans have hijacked the comment section as well. It's fascinating to see a small portion of the "stocks for the long run" crowd slowly opening their minds to broader possibilities.

https://www.caniretireyet.com/going-for-gold/
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:28 pm

Awesome work!

The Deepest Drawdown chart is sorted differently than the others; may want to consider same sorting for continuity.

I wonder what impact rebalancing would have on these results. During the recent decline, I rebalanced a 70/30 to 80/20 and increased stocks in the PP to 40%.
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Tyler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:54 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:28 pm
Awesome work!

The Deepest Drawdown chart is sorted differently than the others; may want to consider same sorting for continuity.

I wonder what impact rebalancing would have on these results. During the recent decline, I rebalanced a 70/30 to 80/20 and increased stocks in the PP to 40%.
Yeah, I found that sorting that last one by deepest drawdown told the story a little better. But since you asked, here it is sorted in the same order as the other charts in the article.

Image

And yes, rebalancing could certainly affect the numbers. I stayed away from that in the monthly data, but all annual numbers have it built in.
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Tyler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:41 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm
And how's this for interesting timing? Your post arrived in my in box just a few hours after this one from Chris Mamula over at "Can I Retire Yet?" about his process of looking into adding gold to his portfolio. Porfolio Charts is prominently mentioned in the article and you'll note that a couple of us fans have hijacked the comment section as well. It's fascinating to see a small portion of the "stocks for the long run" crowd slowly opening their minds to broader possibilities.

https://www.caniretireyet.com/going-for-gold/
Awesome article. Thanks for sharing! I really enjoy stories like that where people walk through their thought process for how they changed their mind with new information. And good conversation in the comments, too. ;)
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Matthew19 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:28 pm

Tyler wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:41 pm
Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm
And how's this for interesting timing? Your post arrived in my in box just a few hours after this one from Chris Mamula over at "Can I Retire Yet?" about his process of looking into adding gold to his portfolio. Porfolio Charts is prominently mentioned in the article and you'll note that a couple of us fans have hijacked the comment section as well. It's fascinating to see a small portion of the "stocks for the long run" crowd slowly opening their minds to broader possibilities.

https://www.caniretireyet.com/going-for-gold/
Awesome article. Thanks for sharing! I really enjoy stories like that where people walk through their thought process for how they changed their mind with new information. And good conversation in the comments, too. ;)
Tyler, great article. I’d add that your writing and formatting have become excellent. That doesn’t come easy. Good work!
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