Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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tarentola
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by tarentola » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:34 am

My intention a few posts back was not to talk up gold in particular, but rather to talk up asset diversification in general. Gold is an example of a diviersifier which is largely ignored by financial advisers - allegedly because they cannot make much money from advising you to invest in it.

Meb Faber has an interesting post https://mebfaber.com/2020/03/05/the-sta ... portfolio/:
Nearly every allocation (or single asset class) will likely decline by at least 30% on a real basis – and probably more – in your lifetime.
He also has some sobering figures about the max drawdown of conventional portfolios like 60/40.
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Tyler
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Tyler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:40 pm

Following up on the data for portfolio drawdowns, I just posted a new article looking at the recovery side of the equation. I figure you guys will find it interesting as well. :)

Welcome to the Big Bounce
Kevin K.
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm

Tyler wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:40 pm
Following up on the data for portfolio drawdowns, I just posted a new article looking at the recovery side of the equation. I figure you guys will find it interesting as well. :)

Welcome to the Big Bounce
I'm tempted to say you've outdone yourself with this post Tyler but I know better by now because I think that after just about every new post on your site. But this one is a keeper that I so wish all my stoic Bogleheads friends would read.

And how's this for interesting timing? Your post arrived in my in box just a few hours after this one from Chris Mamula over at "Can I Retire Yet?" about his process of looking into adding gold to his portfolio. Porfolio Charts is prominently mentioned in the article and you'll note that a couple of us fans have hijacked the comment section as well. It's fascinating to see a small portion of the "stocks for the long run" crowd slowly opening their minds to broader possibilities.

https://www.caniretireyet.com/going-for-gold/
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buddtholomew
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:28 pm

Awesome work!

The Deepest Drawdown chart is sorted differently than the others; may want to consider same sorting for continuity.

I wonder what impact rebalancing would have on these results. During the recent decline, I rebalanced a 70/30 to 80/20 and increased stocks in the PP to 40%.
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Tyler
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Tyler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:54 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:28 pm
Awesome work!

The Deepest Drawdown chart is sorted differently than the others; may want to consider same sorting for continuity.

I wonder what impact rebalancing would have on these results. During the recent decline, I rebalanced a 70/30 to 80/20 and increased stocks in the PP to 40%.
Yeah, I found that sorting that last one by deepest drawdown told the story a little better. But since you asked, here it is sorted in the same order as the other charts in the article.

Image

And yes, rebalancing could certainly affect the numbers. I stayed away from that in the monthly data, but all annual numbers have it built in.
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Tyler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:41 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm
And how's this for interesting timing? Your post arrived in my in box just a few hours after this one from Chris Mamula over at "Can I Retire Yet?" about his process of looking into adding gold to his portfolio. Porfolio Charts is prominently mentioned in the article and you'll note that a couple of us fans have hijacked the comment section as well. It's fascinating to see a small portion of the "stocks for the long run" crowd slowly opening their minds to broader possibilities.

https://www.caniretireyet.com/going-for-gold/
Awesome article. Thanks for sharing! I really enjoy stories like that where people walk through their thought process for how they changed their mind with new information. And good conversation in the comments, too. ;)
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Matthew19
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Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Post by Matthew19 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:28 pm

Tyler wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:41 pm
Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm
And how's this for interesting timing? Your post arrived in my in box just a few hours after this one from Chris Mamula over at "Can I Retire Yet?" about his process of looking into adding gold to his portfolio. Porfolio Charts is prominently mentioned in the article and you'll note that a couple of us fans have hijacked the comment section as well. It's fascinating to see a small portion of the "stocks for the long run" crowd slowly opening their minds to broader possibilities.

https://www.caniretireyet.com/going-for-gold/
Awesome article. Thanks for sharing! I really enjoy stories like that where people walk through their thought process for how they changed their mind with new information. And good conversation in the comments, too. ;)
Tyler, great article. I’d add that your writing and formatting have become excellent. That doesn’t come easy. Good work!
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