PP vs. real gold bugs
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Wow the Bogleheads sure went from "100% VTSAX 4 LYFE" to "The Great Depression round 2" really fast didn't they?
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
The young Tyson's impeccable blend of defensive bobbing and weaving and insane punching power was very PP-like.
MB
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Ain't that the truth. People really don't understand what a deep drawdown feels like until they actually go through one. It feels much different than it looks on a backtest. It probably also doesn't help that they are all feeding off each others fear and worry.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:28 pmAs the famous philosopher Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.".
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
The thing about the backtests is that everyone can see there was an eventual recovery. And in recent drops the recovery tended to be quite quick.
The difference is that when you're experiencing one, you don't know anything about either of those variables.
The difference is that when you're experiencing one, you don't know anything about either of those variables.
MB
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
That is very true. The fear of the unknown. We all know this will likely be done and over quicker than most people expect, but fear can overpower logic quite easily. But the sad thing is for the corner to turn we need the capitulation to happen. The quicker the capitulation, the quicker the recovery. Markets turn up at the very point of max pessimism, by the time the news starts to get promising and public sentiment is that it is safe to go back out into the waters again, it will be too late and they will have missed out on the quickest and most powerful part of the recovery. Stocks are a leading indicator, not a trailing indicator.
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Great thread.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:19 pm https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 2#p5113582
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Hmm, it never occurred to me earlier, but perhaps Mike was talking about the PP?
"My style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable."
"How dare they challenge me with their somewhat primitive skills?"
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Funnily enough, Craig said it in 2013:
↳ viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
↳ viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Great minds think alike.dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:46 am Funnily enough, Craig said it in 2013:
↳ viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Did you specifically search in the forum for that?dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:46 am Funnily enough, Craig said it in 2013:
↳ viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
Or did you just remember that 7 some odd years ago Craig said that?
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:54 pmDid you specifically search in the forum for that?dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:46 am Funnily enough, Craig said it in 2013:
↳ viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
Or did you just remember that 7 some odd years ago Craig said that?
I remembered that either he or Medium Tex had said it in the early days and then I specifically searched so I could link it.
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Really impressive memory. And here I thought I had good knowledge of the history of the dialogue around here.
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Familiarize yourself with Mark Leavy’s idea of storing gold in a wine bottle storage facility and also his mentioning cooking a pig in a hot tub. If I were to ever compile a gyro forum quizbook, those would be wort way more points than charts, graphs, or the best ETF for cash.
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
I read about 3 posts and thanked God I found Craig's podcast 10 years ago.dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:52 pmGreat thread.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:19 pm https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 2#p5113582
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
There's a pretty feisty PP debate going on in that thread.AdamA wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 pmI read about 3 posts and thanked God I found Craig's podcast 10 years ago.dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:52 pmGreat thread.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:19 pm https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 2#p5113582
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
One of the posters there brought up a point that I've been thinking about, namely, that we're going to have a lot of pent up demand if this quarantining goes on for a long time. Combine that with Trump's policies and it's not implausible that that demand is satisfied by American companies and products (or other countries, as many seem to be on this train) like after WW II.
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
This is similar to what I was saying in the stock scream room a couple weeks ago. This thing will eventually pass... and when it does, there's a whole lot of dry kindling laying out there from the unprecedented levels of stimulus they've deployed and will continue to deploy. Not only that, but the recession we are bound to be in will leave us with a very low bar to beat once the virus is finally under control. We don't know when that will be, but when it happens it won't take much of a spark to really get the economic fire burning hot.Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:38 am One of the posters there brought up a point that I've been thinking about, namely, that we're going to have a lot of pent up demand if this quarantining goes on for a long time. Combine that with Trump's policies and it's not implausible that that demand is satisfied by American companies and products (or other countries, as many seem to be on this train) like after WW II.
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
This isn't 2008 though. In 2008 all the stimulus went to the banks. Now we are getting fiscal stimulus, and the bar for fiscal seems to be getting raised every day, and has bi-partisan support. Fiscal is a whole different animal altogether. We are literally testing out MMT as we speak, as the central banks globally are all providing liquidity at the same time as the governments are providing massive fiscal stimulus. The fact that this is a global synchronized effort and not just the U.S. also makes the potential for economic explosion in the recovery all the more likely.
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Now I will say that like 2008, there will be a lot of changes in the post-crisis world. Any crisis like this, be it the financial crisis, 9/11, etc all leave a lasting mark. There will be some businesses that fail, there will be lots of new regulations and laws, there will likely also be a change in leadership in the stock market as well as a general reduction in valuations as people become a bit more risk averse. But, economically speaking, since all anyone looks at is short term quarter to quarter, the first couple quarters of the recovery are bound to be very explosive. I also think that coming out of this might be the time when inflation finally starts showing it's face again. We are already seeing supply side disruptions, a lot of talk about de-globalization, and a move not just from the left but also from the right to support MMT style stimulus and spending. So you are right that things will be much different in 2021 and forward than they were in 2009-2019. Like all bear markets, this is a pivotal time of change (and why does it seem these pivotal times always seem to hit around the decade marker???). But, I do think that the recovery will be swift and explosive. The real question is when? How long will this drag out for? Is it going to come back in the fall?
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
Of course you are assuming that MMT is valid.pmward wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:09 am This isn't 2008 though. In 2008 all the stimulus went to the banks. Now we are getting fiscal stimulus, and the bar for fiscal seems to be getting raised every day, and has bi-partisan support. Fiscal is a whole different animal altogether. We are literally testing out MMT as we speak, as the central banks globally are all providing liquidity at the same time as the governments are providing massive fiscal stimulus. The fact that this is a global synchronized effort and not just the U.S. also makes the potential for economic explosion in the recovery all the more likely.
What if it isn't?
Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
It is valid in the short to medium term. I totally believe the day will eventually come that they paint themselves in the corner (hence why I have a 20% gold allocation and believe that gold will be the best returning PP asset of the next decade). But monetary stimulus alone carried us for 10 years. MMT certainly should be able to carry us for a few more years at least (maybe even another decade... or two), especially done in a global fashion. The bill has to be paid eventually. But they can kick that can down the road much longer than anyone can think possible. Back in 2009, nobody thought that monetary stimulus could go on and carry us for 11 years like it has with no inflation. Keep an open mind is all I'm saying. Common sense and logic left the room a long time ago.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:23 amOf course you are assuming that MMT is valid.pmward wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:09 am This isn't 2008 though. In 2008 all the stimulus went to the banks. Now we are getting fiscal stimulus, and the bar for fiscal seems to be getting raised every day, and has bi-partisan support. Fiscal is a whole different animal altogether. We are literally testing out MMT as we speak, as the central banks globally are all providing liquidity at the same time as the governments are providing massive fiscal stimulus. The fact that this is a global synchronized effort and not just the U.S. also makes the potential for economic explosion in the recovery all the more likely.
What if it isn't?
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs
I certainly have an open mind about when the whole thing will blow up.pmward wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:27 amIt is valid in the short to medium term. I totally believe the day will eventually come that they paint themselves in the corner (hence why I have a 20% gold allocation and believe that gold will be the best returning PP asset of the next decade). But monetary stimulus alone carried us for 10 years. MMT certainly should be able to carry us for a few more years at least (maybe even another decade... or two), especially done in a global fashion. The bill has to be paid eventually. But they can kick that can down the road much longer than anyone can think possible. Back in 2009, nobody thought that monetary stimulus could go on and carry us for 11 years like it has with no inflation. Keep an open mind is all I'm saying. Common sense and logic left the room a long time ago.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:23 amOf course you are assuming that MMT is valid.pmward wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:09 am This isn't 2008 though. In 2008 all the stimulus went to the banks. Now we are getting fiscal stimulus, and the bar for fiscal seems to be getting raised every day, and has bi-partisan support. Fiscal is a whole different animal altogether. We are literally testing out MMT as we speak, as the central banks globally are all providing liquidity at the same time as the governments are providing massive fiscal stimulus. The fact that this is a global synchronized effort and not just the U.S. also makes the potential for economic explosion in the recovery all the more likely.
What if it isn't?
No one can know that with any degree of accuracy, because the timing is partly psychological.
And timing is always the hardest thing to get right.
I just think this is the big one.