PP vs. real gold bugs

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technovelist
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PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by technovelist » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:19 pm

pmward
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:26 pm

Wow the Bogleheads sure went from "100% VTSAX 4 LYFE" to "The Great Depression round 2" really fast didn't they?
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technovelist
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by technovelist » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:28 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:26 pm
Wow the Bogleheads sure went from "100% VTSAX 4 LYFE" to "The Great Depression round 2" really fast didn't they?
As the famous philosopher Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.".
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:31 pm

The young Tyson's impeccable blend of defensive bobbing and weaving and insane punching power was very PP-like. ;D
Price is what you pay; value is what you get.
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:31 pm

technovelist wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:28 pm
pmward wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:26 pm
Wow the Bogleheads sure went from "100% VTSAX 4 LYFE" to "The Great Depression round 2" really fast didn't they?
As the famous philosopher Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.".
Ain't that the truth. People really don't understand what a deep drawdown feels like until they actually go through one. It feels much different than it looks on a backtest. It probably also doesn't help that they are all feeding off each others fear and worry.
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:42 pm

The thing about the backtests is that everyone can see there was an eventual recovery. And in recent drops the recovery tended to be quite quick.

The difference is that when you're experiencing one, you don't know anything about either of those variables.
Price is what you pay; value is what you get.
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:48 pm

That is very true. The fear of the unknown. We all know this will likely be done and over quicker than most people expect, but fear can overpower logic quite easily. But the sad thing is for the corner to turn we need the capitulation to happen. The quicker the capitulation, the quicker the recovery. Markets turn up at the very point of max pessimism, by the time the news starts to get promising and public sentiment is that it is safe to go back out into the waters again, it will be too late and they will have missed out on the quickest and most powerful part of the recovery. Stocks are a leading indicator, not a trailing indicator.
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:52 pm

Great thread.
The new Freakonomics: Why Are Cities (Still) So Expensive? (Ep. 435)
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by Pet Hog » Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:25 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:31 pm
The young Tyson's impeccable blend of defensive bobbing and weaving and insane punching power was very PP-like. ;D
Hmm, it never occurred to me earlier, but perhaps Mike was talking about the PP?

"My style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable."

"How dare they challenge me with their somewhat primitive skills?"
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:46 am

Funnily enough, Craig said it in 2013:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
The new Freakonomics: Why Are Cities (Still) So Expensive? (Ep. 435)
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by technovelist » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:53 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:46 am
Funnily enough, Craig said it in 2013:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
Great minds think alike. O0
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Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:54 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:46 am
Funnily enough, Craig said it in 2013:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5048&p=74801&hilit= ... son#p74801
Did you specifically search in the forum for that?

Or did you just remember that 7 some odd years ago Craig said that? :o ;D
Price is what you pay; value is what you get.
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