Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:13 pm**

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:43 pm If you have the psychological wherewithal to buy stocks and wait what could be years, I think once the DJIA is <15,000, it's time to think about buying. If it actually happens to get down to 10,000 or less, back up the truck and fill it with stocks. If you can afford it, and if you think you can sit on them for a good long time. If we get to those levels, I will be buying.

But this is a different discussion than staying the course at these prices.

Let me be clear. I love the PP.
But there are one or two times in an investor's life where there will be a panic or value buying opportunity that makes it worth setting aside the slow and steady allocation. HB would say that's for the variable portfolio. I agree to a point. I would buy within the upper bounds of the PP bands, maybe a bit more. The stronger I believed in the value, the more I would want to be buying. If 15,000 comes and you don't believe, don't be buying.

That sounds like a good strategy.

My 401 is still in a 60/40 due to limited options. Have thought about cashing out now and then buying back in when it hits 15k. I don't see how it does not go down to 15k with all the bad news.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:14 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:37 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:11 pm Do you all plan on staying the course?
Yes in the sense of not capitulating and selling stocks low.
I'll be buying stocks.

No in the sense of dumping munis and prime for a flight to quality (treasury mm).

Are you buying now or waiting until it goes down another 20-30%?

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:22 pm**

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:36 pm Yup, I'm sticking with the PP philosophy. I feel pretty good with the amount I have in the PP right now. I'd been shifting some money from stocks to cash in my formerly stock-only VP; I'll be shifting that back into stocks.

You're expecting the market to go down much further? I did something similar and went from a 90/10 target fund to a 60/40 in my 401, which lessened the blow a bit. Now thinking about increasing stock to cash ratio by 5% for every 1k the dow drops. For example:

If the Dow hits 19k, move to 65/35
18k - 70/30
15k - 85/15
12k - 100% stocks

Whether I go through with that or not is another story. Easier said than done tho (especially if employment is affected).

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:28 pm**

glennds wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:09 pm It is very possible that the Permanent Portfolio has not yet shown us its shine under the present shock. If I recall correctly, when the financial crisis hit the fan, the PP dropped and then after a several weeks, both buckets of long bonds and gold took over carrying the load. The bonds I think because it was a deflationary period, and the gold I think because there was a post-trauma flight to safety and a fear that QE would prompt inflation. The point being, the nature of the correlations is not instant, there is a period of transition from one asset class pulling the train to another. The markets need time to fully react to a change in economic condition.

I do think I vaguely remember that happening (all three of them down). That is an interesting explanation for the phenomenon. It should hopefully not last long! I suspect it will change once the government stimulus checks are mailed out....and then gold starts increasing.

glennds wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:09 pmOn the other hand, we could just head straight into a recession in which case nothing will do well and the train just slows down. But even then losses should be fairly contained in a PP.

I know it's not officially a recession until GDP contracts, but it seems like the economy is already in one with the huge unemployment spike over the past week or two.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:31 pm**

turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:13 pm
I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:43 pm If you have the psychological wherewithal to buy stocks and wait what could be years, I think once the DJIA is <15,000, it's time to think about buying. If it actually happens to get down to 10,000 or less, back up the truck and fill it with stocks. If you can afford it, and if you think you can sit on them for a good long time. If we get to those levels, I will be buying.

But this is a different discussion than staying the course at these prices.

Let me be clear. I love the PP.
But there are one or two times in an investor's life where there will be a panic or value buying opportunity that makes it worth setting aside the slow and steady allocation. HB would say that's for the variable portfolio. I agree to a point. I would buy within the upper bounds of the PP bands, maybe a bit more. The stronger I believed in the value, the more I would want to be buying. If 15,000 comes and you don't believe, don't be buying.
That sounds like a good strategy.

My 401 is still in a 60/40 due to limited options. Have thought about cashing out now and then buying back in when it hits 15k. I don't see how it does not go down to 15k with all the bad news.

At this point it's already too late to sell stocks, imo. Most of the bad news is already priced in.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:34 pm**

I know many musician / artist / part-time teacher types, and the combination of AB5 and Coronavirus has destroyed their income sources.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:38 pm**

turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:14 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:37 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:11 pm Do you all plan on staying the course?
Yes in the sense of not capitulating and selling stocks low.
I'll be buying stocks.

No in the sense of dumping munis and prime for a flight to quality (treasury mm).
Are you buying now or waiting until it goes down another 20-30%?

For now, I'm merely throwing a few hundred dollars into it every day, rain or shine. If it goes down another 20% or so, I might take $10K at a time from T-bills and *really* buy. Variable Portfolio stocks. Just have to make sure I have enough cash remaining to call it an emergency fund because:
• The virus could come back, like just when Vinny thought he was going to play basketball in September.
• Some other calamity could hit: Al Qaeda shenanigans, natural disasters, who knows.
I'm definitely not a doomer, but who knows when we'll really be out of the woods.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:56 pm**

turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:22 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:36 pm Yup, I'm sticking with the PP philosophy. I feel pretty good with the amount I have in the PP right now. I'd been shifting some money from stocks to cash in my formerly stock-only VP; I'll be shifting that back into stocks.
You're expecting the market to go down much further? I did something similar and went from a 90/10 target fund to a 60/40 in my 401, which lessened the blow a bit. Now thinking about increasing stock to cash ratio by 5% for every 1k the dow drops. For example:

If the Dow hits 19k, move to 65/35
18k - 70/30
15k - 85/15
12k - 100% stocks

Whether I go through with that or not is another story. Easier said than done tho (especially if employment is affected).

I dunno. If it does, I'll probably just rebalance in my PP because I'll have hit 15% stocks, or somewhere close to that. Your strategy isn't bad either.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:11 pm**

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:34 pm I know many musician / artist / part-time teacher types, and the combination of AB5 and Coronavirus has destroyed their income sources.

The 50th anniversary tour I was doing some shows in has been suspended for now ....my buddy was right in the middle of a worldwide Bowie alumni tour and it was suspended .....they worked with Bowie when he did the glass spyder tour ....they got together ,got new singers and booked arenas world wide selling out shows ...

My one day a week job is suspended too

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pm**

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:31 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:13 pm
I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:43 pm If you have the psychological wherewithal to buy stocks and wait what could be years, I think once the DJIA is <15,000, it's time to think about buying. If it actually happens to get down to 10,000 or less, back up the truck and fill it with stocks. If you can afford it, and if you think you can sit on them for a good long time. If we get to those levels, I will be buying.

But this is a different discussion than staying the course at these prices.

Let me be clear. I love the PP.
But there are one or two times in an investor's life where there will be a panic or value buying opportunity that makes it worth setting aside the slow and steady allocation. HB would say that's for the variable portfolio. I agree to a point. I would buy within the upper bounds of the PP bands, maybe a bit more. The stronger I believed in the value, the more I would want to be buying. If 15,000 comes and you don't believe, don't be buying.
That sounds like a good strategy.

My 401 is still in a 60/40 due to limited options. Have thought about cashing out now and then buying back in when it hits 15k. I don't see how it does not go down to 15k with all the bad news.
At this point it's already too late to sell stocks, imo. Most of the bad news is already priced in.

It seems to be the beginning of the crisis with ways to go yet. Someone in the administration had a baseball game analogy and said we're in the second inning or something to that affect.

I just figured why not sell now to stop the bleeding and then buy back in once it is down further.

Something told me I should have sold a few weeks ago but I kept thinking "stay the course". At the time, it seemed like the market could also go back up. I don't think anyone expected this much of the economy to be shut down.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:20 pm**

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:34 pm I know many musician / artist / part-time teacher types, and the combination of AB5 and Coronavirus has destroyed their income sources.

Those government stimulus checks should hopefully help. They are talking about $1000 in April and another $1000 in May. How can anyone live on that though? As much as I agree with Harry's philosophy, the government does need to step in here.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 pm**

turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:20 pm
Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:34 pm I know many musician / artist / part-time teacher types, and the combination of AB5 and Coronavirus has destroyed their income sources.
Those government stimulus checks should hopefully help. They are talking about $1000 in April and another $1000 in May. How can anyone live on that though? As much as I agree with Harry's philosophy, the government does need to step in here.

Yup, that would help a lot.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:38 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:14 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:37 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:11 pm Do you all plan on staying the course?
Yes in the sense of not capitulating and selling stocks low.
I'll be buying stocks.

No in the sense of dumping munis and prime for a flight to quality (treasury mm).
Are you buying now or waiting until it goes down another 20-30%?
For now, I'm merely throwing a few hundred dollars into it every day, rain or shine. If it goes down another 20% or so, I might take $10K at a time from T-bills and *really* buy. Variable Portfolio stocks. Just have to make sure I have enough cash remaining to call it an emergency fund because:
• The virus could come back, like just when Vinny thought he was going to play basketball in September.
• Some other calamity could hit: Al Qaeda shenanigans, natural disasters, who knows.
I'm definitely not a doomer, but who knows when we'll really be out of the woods.

Sounds like a good plan.

There has been talk that the virus could be under control by the summer, and then return with a vengeance in the fall.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pm**

turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:31 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:13 pm
I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:43 pm If you have the psychological wherewithal to buy stocks and wait what could be years, I think once the DJIA is <15,000, it's time to think about buying. If it actually happens to get down to 10,000 or less, back up the truck and fill it with stocks. If you can afford it, and if you think you can sit on them for a good long time. If we get to those levels, I will be buying.

But this is a different discussion than staying the course at these prices.

Let me be clear. I love the PP.
But there are one or two times in an investor's life where there will be a panic or value buying opportunity that makes it worth setting aside the slow and steady allocation. HB would say that's for the variable portfolio. I agree to a point. I would buy within the upper bounds of the PP bands, maybe a bit more. The stronger I believed in the value, the more I would want to be buying. If 15,000 comes and you don't believe, don't be buying.
That sounds like a good strategy.

My 401 is still in a 60/40 due to limited options. Have thought about cashing out now and then buying back in when it hits 15k. I don't see how it does not go down to 15k with all the bad news.
At this point it's already too late to sell stocks, imo. Most of the bad news is already priced in.
It seems to be the beginning of the crisis with ways to go yet. Someone in the administration had a baseball game analogy and said we're in the second inning or something to that affect.

I just figured why not sell now to stop the bleeding and then buy back in once it is down further.

Something told me I should have sold a few weeks ago but I kept thinking "stay the course". At the time, it seemed like the market could also go back up. I don't think anyone expected this much of the economy to be shut down.

Don't forget that stocks are a leading indicator. They start turning up long before the data changes. There is no guarantee you'll be able to buy back at a better price... or that you would have the balls to actually push the buy button if you actually did get the opportunity. Personally, in your shoes I would take it as a learning lesson. You learned that you are taking more risk than your risk tolerance. But wait out the recovery first, then make the changes. It will recover eventually, likely quicker than you currently believe possible. Remember in March 2009 everyone thought that it still had further to go as well. The word "stock" was considered a 4 letter word. It was the very peak of the bearishness. It took many years for people to start to believe in the market again. All those people that capitulated and went to cash missed out on the recovery.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:50 pm**

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:31 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:13 pm
I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:43 pm If you have the psychological wherewithal to buy stocks and wait what could be years, I think once the DJIA is <15,000, it's time to think about buying. If it actually happens to get down to 10,000 or less, back up the truck and fill it with stocks. If you can afford it, and if you think you can sit on them for a good long time. If we get to those levels, I will be buying.

But this is a different discussion than staying the course at these prices.

Let me be clear. I love the PP.
But there are one or two times in an investor's life where there will be a panic or value buying opportunity that makes it worth setting aside the slow and steady allocation. HB would say that's for the variable portfolio. I agree to a point. I would buy within the upper bounds of the PP bands, maybe a bit more. The stronger I believed in the value, the more I would want to be buying. If 15,000 comes and you don't believe, don't be buying.
That sounds like a good strategy.

My 401 is still in a 60/40 due to limited options. Have thought about cashing out now and then buying back in when it hits 15k. I don't see how it does not go down to 15k with all the bad news.
At this point it's already too late to sell stocks, imo. Most of the bad news is already priced in.
It seems to be the beginning of the crisis with ways to go yet. Someone in the administration had a baseball game analogy and said we're in the second inning or something to that affect.

I just figured why not sell now to stop the bleeding and then buy back in once it is down further.

Something told me I should have sold a few weeks ago but I kept thinking "stay the course". At the time, it seemed like the market could also go back up. I don't think anyone expected this much of the economy to be shut down.
Don't forget that stocks are a leading indicator. They start turning up long before the data changes. There is no guarantee you'll be able to buy back at a better price... or that you would have the balls to actually push the buy button if you actually did get the opportunity.

Two very good points.

It's looking like the trend is down, but you never know, there is a chance that it could be close to the bottom.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pmPersonally, in your shoes I would take it as a learning lesson.

I learned in 2008 not to go 100% equities. The 401 is 60-40, which is working out better (only 20% drop instead of 40+) but still don't like to see 1/4 obliterated in such a short period of time. It took a long time to build that up!

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pmYou learned that you are taking more risk than your risk tolerance.

Or perhaps I need to work on increasing the risk tolerance. It's not like I will be able to touch that money anytime soon anyway. With that being said, I think I will Permanent portfolio it eventually.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pmBut wait out the recovery first, then make the changes. It will recover eventually, likely quicker than you currently believe possible. Remember in March 2009 everyone thought that it still had further to go as well. The word "stock" was considered a 4 letter word. It was the very peak of the bearishness. It took many years for people to start to believe in the market again. All those people that capitulated and went to cash missed out on the recovery.

I was one of them....and said I wouldn't get back into the market after that. In hindsight, I should have just left it alone.

This month eerily reminds me of March 2009.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:59 pm**

turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:50 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pmYou learned that you are taking more risk than your risk tolerance.
Or perhaps I need to work on increasing the risk tolerance. It's not like I will be able to touch that money anytime soon anyway. With that being said, I think I will Permanent portfolio it eventually.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:23 pmBut wait out the recovery first, then make the changes. It will recover eventually, likely quicker than you currently believe possible. Remember in March 2009 everyone thought that it still had further to go as well. The word "stock" was considered a 4 letter word. It was the very peak of the bearishness. It took many years for people to start to believe in the market again. All those people that capitulated and went to cash missed out on the recovery.
I was one of them....and said I wouldn't get back into the market after that. In hindsight, I should have just left it alone.

This month eerily reminds me of March 2009.

This month really reminds me of October 2008 personally, the way stocks, bonds, and gold are trading. I'm just waiting for the Lehman announcement, something like TSLA going under when it can't get the credit it needs to keep the lights on.

As far as "increasing risk tolerance" of the PP have you looked at the Golden Butterfly? This is probably the most popular portfolio here, it's basically a PP with a 20% VP to small cap value.

Golden Butterfly: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/
PP: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/p ... portfolio/

You can also spice it up a bit more by cutting down on the cash. For instance I have 5% of the cash in REIT's currently. Tyler has 10% of the cash in REIT's. You could substitute all or part of the cash (or the small cap value bucket) for anything else you desire as well like emerging markets, international, trend following, commodities, whatever. There's some flexibility in the framework so long as you don't get too carried away.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:07 pm**

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 pm
turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:20 pm
Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:34 pm I know many musician / artist / part-time teacher types, and the combination of AB5 and Coronavirus has destroyed their income sources.
Those government stimulus checks should hopefully help. They are talking about $1000 in April and another $1000 in May. How can anyone live on that though? As much as I agree with Harry's philosophy, the government does need to step in here.
Yup, that would help a lot.

Isn't that $1,000 per person in the household? Or, have things already gone beyond what I last heard? In my entire life I don't think I've lived though such rapid change.

Vinny

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:00 pm**

turbo8214 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:11 pm Do you all plan on staying the course?

Yes, I do. I just do not understand finances well and PP is the only thing I can do more or less comfortably
I did not rebalance for long time (was within 15/35 bands)
At this point my 4x25 HBPP looks like.

Stocks 21.1%
LTT 24.3%
Cash 29.8%
Gold 24.8%

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:20 pm**

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:47 pm
Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:34 pm I know many musician / artist / part-time teacher types, and the combination of AB5 and Coronavirus has destroyed their income sources.
How has AB5 been detrimental? I thought that was supposed to make things better for them (despite the fact that it was a clear contradiction to the IRS definitions of employee vs independent contractor).

Uber and Lyft are ignoring, so not impacting who I think are the targets.

I think some interpretations are that if you hire a band for a club or festival, you have to make them employees. Or the band has to incorporate somehow.

If you are non-profit running square, Contra, etc, dance and hire caller and band for that, you have to make them employees (BTW, folks who run such dances are volunteers. No one has an HR department. Send out IRS paperwork if pay folks over $500).

Or DJs AFAIK.

I really don't know enough details, except many friends who do his who were getting a lot less sure to AB5 even before Coronavirus.

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:49 pm**

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:20 pm
MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:47 pm
Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:34 pm I know many musician / artist / part-time teacher types, and the combination of AB5 and Coronavirus has destroyed their income sources.
How has AB5 been detrimental? I thought that was supposed to make things better for them (despite the fact that it was a clear contradiction to the IRS definitions of employee vs independent contractor).
Uber and Lyft are ignoring, so not impacting who I think are the targets.

I think some interpretations are that if you hire a band for a club or festival, you have to make them employees. Or the band has to incorporate somehow.

If you are non-profit running square, Contra, etc, dance and hire caller and band for that, you have to make them employees (BTW, folks who run such dances are volunteers. No one has an HR department. Send out IRS paperwork if pay folks over $500).

Or DJs AFAIK.

I really don't know enough details, except many friends who do his who were getting a lot less sure to AB5 even before Coronavirus.

I had no idea what this AB5 was and was encountering it for this first time. Now that I see what it is it ONLY applies to California? As an accountant, I'd like to deal with all of these people becoming employees! Bands are truly not employees but ARE contractors. You hire them for a job but you do not oversee them in any way like you do an employee or control how they do things. Plus, they are hired by so many other entities.

I'm now reading about it here. Absolutely wild!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Californi ... l_5_(2019)

Who here lives in California?

Vinny

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:23 pm**

Yes, AB5 is a Caifornia law.

And, um, I live in California

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:36 pm**

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:23 pm Yes, AB5 is a Caifornia law.

And, um, I live in California

I've heard it a few times. But if California was a separate nation it's economy would rank where in the world?

And, what it the liberal / conservative split in voters in the state?

In may ways far more liberal than even Massachusetts.

Vinny

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:44 pm**

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:36 pm
Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:23 pm Yes, AB5 is a Caifornia law.

And, um, I live in California
I've heard it a few times. But if California was a separate nation it's economy would rank where in the world?

And, what it the liberal / conservative split in voters in the state?

In may ways far more liberal than even Massachusetts.

Vinny

Fifth largest maybe?

Coasts are liberal. North and east (more rural) are not.

State political position as pretty much all Democrat now (but have had moderate Republican governor's relatively recently).

Posted: **Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 pm**

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:44 pm
vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:36 pm
Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:23 pm Yes, AB5 is a Caifornia law.

And, um, I live in California
I've heard it a few times. But if California was a separate nation it's economy would rank where in the world?

And, what it the liberal / conservative split in voters in the state?

In may ways far more liberal than even Massachusetts.

Vinny
Fifth largest maybe?

Coasts are liberal. North and east (more rural) are not.

State political position as pretty much all Democrat now (but have had moderate Republican governor's relatively recently).

Arnold S was a Republican, correct! Were you there when he was governor? If so, what was your evaluation of him? He had two terms? Love him as an actor. Just saw a great one of him the other night that was in total contrast to all his other roles. He'd lost his wife and daughter in a plane crash in this movie. No action hero in this one.

Vinny

Posted: **Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:13 am**

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 pm

Arnold S was a Republican, correct! Were you there when he was governor? If so, what was your evaluation of him? He had two terms? Love him as an actor. Just saw a great one of him the other night that was in total contrast to all his other roles. He'd lost his wife and daughter in a plane crash in this movie. No action hero in this one.

Vinny

If it was legal for him to be President he would have run.

Honestly, I think we would have won, too.

Gyroscopic Investing

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