Gyroscopic Investing

Hi All,

I swung back by to say hello. To the long-time posters here, thanks for keeping the lights on!

It's interesting times out there and my core Permanent Portfolio position allows me to sleep at night. I was just looking at some quick charts over at etfreplay.com and the Permanent Portfolio is doing great. It clearly beats a global stock/bond benchmark and now matches the extremely volatile 100% stock portfolio at least over the last 36 months. It did this with a small portion of the volatility.

I remember 10+ years ago people on other forums predicting LT bonds interest rates "had nowhere to go but up."

Another financial guru said gold prices would be $300 or so an ounce within a year.

Then I remember before Trump was elected an infamous economist from the NYT was advising people to sell their stocks as the market would surely crash.

Where are these predictions now?

I can't offer any direct advice to anyone, but as for me I've just been rebalancing as needed to the core portfolio and have been ignoring the financial news. Financial news and market timing is completely worthless predicting anything and often counter-productive as the markets have well moved by the time they've said anything. The little guy can't outrun Wall Street.

The best strategy for me still is to be widely diversified and keep with a mechanical rebalancing strategy that forces me to sell high and buy low. I have been doing the above now with the Permanent Portfolio since before 2008 when I started investing this way and it has always served me well.

I wish everyone well and hope you've been able to enjoy the stability and peace of mind I've had from the Permanent Portfolio over the years. I was happy to find Harry Browne's advice on it so long ago. It's great to see that it still serves the intended purpose of growing ones life savings in a safe and conservative way.

All the best,

-- Craig

Oh, captain! My captain!

Welcome back, Craig. And thanks for your insight. Always interesting to hear your perspective.

P.s. I’m almost done my computer science degree

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:52 pm

craigr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:14 pm Another financial guru said gold prices would be $300 or so an ounce within a year.

The only gold I like is in my wife's jewelry!

How's retirement? I think your blog came down several years back.

I'm not retired, I'm just extremely busy on a new company. But despite any rumors to the contrary, yes I still use the Permanent Portfolio as my core holding and am glad I do. And yes, the wife's jewelry comment was hilarious. Same as the people predicting the death of LT bonds, etc.

I've made way more money ignoring financial predictions than I ever had following them. Market timing is total bunk and I advise everyone to avoid it and stick to a mechanical rebalancing system.

Happy to hear you're still working on the new company, Craig! The book was pivotal to me, it offered a recent picture of the PP and allowed me to start investing.

Thanks for the timely and thoughtful post Craig! It's also an opportune moment to thank you for introducing me to the Permanent Portfolio and Harry Browne many years ago on that epic thread over on the Bogleheads forum. Your writing has been and remains a light in the darkness and has saved me from many an ulcer and/or sleepless night.

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:57 am Thanks for the timely and thoughtful post Craig! It's also an opportune moment to thank you for introducing me to the Permanent Portfolio and Harry Browne many years ago on that epic thread over on the Bogleheads forum. Your writing has been a remains a light in the darkness and has saved me from many an ulcer and/or sleepless night.

Agree. I'm on year 10. Thanks Craig!

Echoing others here...it's nice being able to enjoy this beautiful day on the East Coast while others are fretting about what to do as the stock market implodes.

Edited to add:

The PP in action doing exactly as it was designed to do -- I've been sleeping as soundly as ever through all this turmoil.

Stocks in VVL have plummeted 8% today alone.

ZFL and KILO.B are long bonds and gold respectively which have made up the losses with 4% increases each.

ZFS is cash and is holding steady as usual.

Is that a Robinhood screen?

LOL no. It’s a platform called Wealthsimple. And they’re friggin taking over Canada.

They started out with roboadvisor portfolios, then brokerage accounts, and now they’re even opening bank accounts.

Their claim to fame is zero fees. In the brokerage platform for instance they only make money on currency conversion spreads. No account fees or trading commissions. They don’t even sell order flow (or so they claim). And since I only buy assets traded on Canadian exchanges, I’m fee-free effectively.

Robinhood. I have no interest in infinite leverage or saying “guh” every other sentence.

Thank you Craig and HB !

You are the best.

Thanks CraigR! Very happy to have found your site in 2014.

Yes, thank you Craig (and Harry). I discovered your book about 1-1/2 years ago, and my wife and I started implementing the PP (actually the Golden Butterfly variation - Tyler thank you too!) in March or April last year, and finally finished implementing it for our savings the end of June last year (so in it for 8 months so far). We're still learning and suspect that soon we'll soon be doing our first re-balancing, and so learning some more. When people ask who our financial adviser is, we tell them it is your book. Thank you!

Yes indeed, thank you Craig (and Harry). I've implemented my PP variant (Juicy PP) years back and its keep my returns consistent. I sleep good at night with a hands-off passive portfolio that can endure any economic condition.

I also enjoyed your excellent book. Take care my friend.

craigr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:14 pm
I wish everyone well and hope you've been able to enjoy the stability and peace of mind I've had from the Permanent Portfolio over the years. I was happy to find Harry Browne's advice on it so long ago. It's great to see that it still serves the intended purpose of growing ones life savings in a safe and conservative way.

All the best,

-- Craig

Same to you.

Good to hear from you Craig. I began the PP 10 years ago after going through the gut punch of the Great Recession, and realizing I had to do something different. I’ve stuck with it ever since and now around 90% of my investments are in the PP and it is a much less anxious time watching the financial turmoil. I owe you and MediumTex and other long-time posters here a debt of gratitude for helping me along in my learning process. And of course to HB’s sheer genius for devising the portfolio.
Thanks

Thank you, MediumTex, and Tyler! I am so happy I found this forum and your book. I put my 401k into the GB. I wish I could have done the same with my taxable portfolio but the tax implications would have been a major hit. Now, I can ride out my my losses in the taxable account over many years while the GB / HBPP stays upright.

It's interesting, I still find that very few people are interested in learning about the HBPP.

Anyway thanks again!

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:17 pm ...

It's interesting, I still find that very few people are interested in learning about the HBPP.

Anyway thanks again!

That will change of the markets keep going like they are....

Was a lot busier around here last time socks really tanked.

Almost a bear market...

Yes, thank you Craig for your insights - as always! This forum is a key piece of support for people interested in the PP or its variants, and it's important to keep it going. At least to me!

I'm sure a lot of people will jump on the PP bandwagon, like lawyers chasing ambulances, but of course it's too late...you want to be in BEFORE the stock market correction hits. Otherwise, it's the old market-timing buy high and sell low phenomenon, just applied to a portfolio rather than an individual security. This is why you want to stay with the PP even when it's enormously unpopular and lagging the stock market returns. It's because you know moments like this will come, and you can't predict when.

sophie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:29 am Yes, thank you Craig for your insights - as always! This forum is a key piece of support for people interested in the PP or its variants, and it's important to keep it going. At least to me!

I'm sure a lot of people will jump on the PP bandwagon, like lawyers chasing ambulances, but of course it's too late...you want to be in BEFORE the stock market correction hits. Otherwise, it's the old market-timing buy high and sell low phenomenon, just applied to a portfolio rather than an individual security. This is why you want to stay with the PP even when it's enormously unpopular and lagging the stock market returns. It's because you know moments like this will come, and you can't predict when.

I'm the least convincing person in the world: nobody I was telling to about the HBPP became interested. To be more convincing I gave them THE book to read. Still didn't help.

sophie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:29 am Yes, thank you Craig for your insights - as always! This forum is a key piece of support for people interested in the PP or its variants, and it's important to keep it going. At least to me!

I'm sure a lot of people will jump on the PP bandwagon, like lawyers chasing ambulances, but of course it's too late...you want to be in BEFORE the stock market correction hits. Otherwise, it's the old market-timing buy high and sell low phenomenon, just applied to a portfolio rather than an individual security. This is why you want to stay with the PP even when it's enormously unpopular and lagging the stock market returns. It's because you know moments like this will come, and you can't predict when.

As the ApostatedStick once said, when people want to buy gold, Treasuries, or stocks, I have them in stock.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:24 pm LOL no. It’s a platform called Wealthsimple. And they’re friggin taking over Canada.
...
Robinhood. I have no interest in infinite leverage or saying “guh” every other sentence.

Wow, another Robinhood outage. Third one in a very short time!

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:23 am

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:24 pm LOL no. It’s a platform called Wealthsimple. And they’re friggin taking over Canada.
...
Robinhood. I have no interest in infinite leverage or saying “guh” every other sentence.

Wow, another Robinhood outage. Third one in a very short time!

I swear, Robinhood seems like it was coded by a first year computer science student cobbling together his homework assignment 2 hours before it's due.

Putting my life savings into that app? Yikes!

Yeah, seeing as how there are numerous other free commissions providers (all of which get better fills than Robinhood) I think they go under because of this. Robinhood was very popular in the investments Slack at my work, and most people that used it are looking to transfer their assets to another brokerage.