Stay cool...

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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mukramesh
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by mukramesh » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:30 pm

Thanks CraigR! Very happy to have found your site in 2014.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by LittleDinghy » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:58 pm

Yes, thank you Craig (and Harry). I discovered your book about 1-1/2 years ago, and my wife and I started implementing the PP (actually the Golden Butterfly variation - Tyler thank you too!) in March or April last year, and finally finished implementing it for our savings the end of June last year (so in it for 8 months so far). We're still learning and suspect that soon we'll soon be doing our first re-balancing, and so learning some more. When people ask who our financial adviser is, we tell them it is your book. Thank you!
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by ozzy » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:52 pm

Yes indeed, thank you Craig (and Harry). I've implemented my PP variant (Juicy PP) years back and its keep my returns consistent. I sleep good at night with a hands-off passive portfolio that can endure any economic condition.

I also enjoyed your excellent book. Take care my friend.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by geaux saints » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:04 pm

craigr wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:14 pm

I wish everyone well and hope you've been able to enjoy the stability and peace of mind I've had from the Permanent Portfolio over the years. I was happy to find Harry Browne's advice on it so long ago. It's great to see that it still serves the intended purpose of growing ones life savings in a safe and conservative way.

All the best,

-- Craig
Same to you.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Pkg Man » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:54 pm

Good to hear from you Craig. I began the PP 10 years ago after going through the gut punch of the Great Recession, and realizing I had to do something different. I’ve stuck with it ever since and now around 90% of my investments are in the PP and it is a much less anxious time watching the financial turmoil. I owe you and MediumTex and other long-time posters here a debt of gratitude for helping me along in my learning process. And of course to HB’s sheer genius for devising the portfolio.
Thanks
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:17 pm

Thank you, MediumTex, and Tyler! I am so happy I found this forum and your book. I put my 401k into the GB. I wish I could have done the same with my taxable portfolio but the tax implications would have been a major hit. Now, I can ride out my my losses in the taxable account over many years while the GB / HBPP stays upright.

It's interesting, I still find that very few people are interested in learning about the HBPP.

Anyway thanks again!
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Dieter » Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:10 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:17 pm
...

It's interesting, I still find that very few people are interested in learning about the HBPP.

Anyway thanks again!
That will change of the markets keep going like they are....

Was a lot busier around here last time socks really tanked.

Almost a bear market...
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by sophie » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:29 am

Yes, thank you Craig for your insights - as always! This forum is a key piece of support for people interested in the PP or its variants, and it's important to keep it going. At least to me!

I'm sure a lot of people will jump on the PP bandwagon, like lawyers chasing ambulances, but of course it's too late...you want to be in BEFORE the stock market correction hits. Otherwise, it's the old market-timing buy high and sell low phenomenon, just applied to a portfolio rather than an individual security. This is why you want to stay with the PP even when it's enormously unpopular and lagging the stock market returns. It's because you know moments like this will come, and you can't predict when.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:02 am

sophie wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:29 am
Yes, thank you Craig for your insights - as always! This forum is a key piece of support for people interested in the PP or its variants, and it's important to keep it going. At least to me!

I'm sure a lot of people will jump on the PP bandwagon, like lawyers chasing ambulances, but of course it's too late...you want to be in BEFORE the stock market correction hits. Otherwise, it's the old market-timing buy high and sell low phenomenon, just applied to a portfolio rather than an individual security. This is why you want to stay with the PP even when it's enormously unpopular and lagging the stock market returns. It's because you know moments like this will come, and you can't predict when.
I'm the least convincing person in the world: nobody I was telling to about the HBPP became interested. To be more convincing I gave them THE book to read. Still didn't help.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:03 am

sophie wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:29 am
Yes, thank you Craig for your insights - as always! This forum is a key piece of support for people interested in the PP or its variants, and it's important to keep it going. At least to me!

I'm sure a lot of people will jump on the PP bandwagon, like lawyers chasing ambulances, but of course it's too late...you want to be in BEFORE the stock market correction hits. Otherwise, it's the old market-timing buy high and sell low phenomenon, just applied to a portfolio rather than an individual security. This is why you want to stay with the PP even when it's enormously unpopular and lagging the stock market returns. It's because you know moments like this will come, and you can't predict when.
As the ApostatedStick once said, when people want to buy gold, Treasuries, or stocks, I have them in stock.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:23 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:24 pm
LOL no. It’s a platform called Wealthsimple. And they’re friggin taking over Canada.
...
Robinhood. I have no interest in infinite leverage or saying “guh” every other sentence. ;D
Wow, another Robinhood outage. Third one in a very short time!
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:29 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:23 am
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:24 pm
LOL no. It’s a platform called Wealthsimple. And they’re friggin taking over Canada.
...
Robinhood. I have no interest in infinite leverage or saying “guh” every other sentence. ;D
Wow, another Robinhood outage. Third one in a very short time!
I swear, Robinhood seems like it was coded by a first year computer science student cobbling together his homework assignment 2 hours before it's due.

Putting my life savings into that app? Yikes! :P
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by pmward » Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:43 pm

Yeah, seeing as how there are numerous other free commissions providers (all of which get better fills than Robinhood) I think they go under because of this. Robinhood was very popular in the investments Slack at my work, and most people that used it are looking to transfer their assets to another brokerage.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by craigr » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:04 am

Hi All,

I hope everyone stayed cool and rode things out with some smart re-balancing. It's nice to have a portfolio that doesn't make you panic and do dumb things in a market crash.

YTD and 3yr. charts show the PP is smashing a 60/40 index. Low volatility allows re-balancing into the storm without sweating at night. Solid investing is often more about managing emotions rather than high returns. An investor that can keep their cool will come out on top in the long-run. Low volatility investing like the PP proves its mettle once again.

Hope all are well!
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by dualstow » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:16 am

So far, so good!
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Xan » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:35 am

The PP makes it pretty easy to stay cool. Especially when it's doing well.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by sophie » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:39 am

This month has been incredible for PP owners. But even before this, it was remarkably easy to be a PP investor. During all the market panics this spring & summer, I've been completely unconcerned with how the markets were doing, except that I wanted to make sure I didn't miss a rebalance opportunity.

Thank you Craig and everyone else who introduced us to this wonderful portfolio!
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by mukramesh » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:46 pm

Hi Craig! Thank you again for your site and book.
YTD results are even better than shown on ETF Replay due to an opportunistic rebalance during the crash ;D . PP is feeling pretty bulletproof.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by pp4me » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:08 pm

mukramesh wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:46 pm
Hi Craig! Thank you again for your site and book.
YTD results are even better than shown on ETF Replay due to an opportunistic rebalance during the crash ;D . PP is feeling pretty bulletproof.
Interesting point both you and Sophie make about "opportunistic rebalancing". I've heard Craig speak of "mechanical rebalancing" which I took to mean sticking closely to the bands and only rebalancing when they are triggered. I think HB even went so far as to suggest only doing it once per year.

I'm actually tempted to sell off some Gold and Bonds right now since both are at all high times but isn't this just another form of "timing the market".
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:31 pm

pp4me wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:08 pm
but isn't this just another form of "timing the market".
Yes.

All time highs are meant to be exceeded eventually, you just don't know when.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by sophie » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:10 pm

I didn't "opportunistically" rebalance. I did it when I crossed a band. I was watching for when that happened using a google sheet I designed to give the indication, without my having to actually check my portfolio. I remember being a little disappointed though, that I didn't rebalance when stocks hit their low point, as some people here did. However, I would have been rebalancing out of cash into stocks, whereas my rebalance involved moving money from cash and bonds (primarily) and a bit out of gold. In the end I don't think it made a lot of difference.

I'm nowhere near crossing any band right now, so sitting tight as per plan.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by mukramesh » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:18 pm

Hi pp4me,

By opportunistic rebalancing, I meant I hit a rebalancing band (15/35) during the crash for stocks on the low side since they crashed so harshly (almost -35%). Completely mechanical but it requires paying attention to your portfolio balances, especially during times of high volatility. No market timing here but I definitely got lucky ;)

I would not sell any Gold or Bonds unless it is part of your mechanical rebalancing plan.


@Sophie: That is exactly what I did, Re: watching my Google sheet daily.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by pp4me » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:25 pm

I've been in the PP for about 12 years now and I have never hit a re-balancing band. Not even close as far I can remember. I have both re-balanced and let things ride during my yearly checkup however and it would take too much effort on my part to figure out which was the best strategy. And if I did what would be the point? There are no constraints in place requiring the future to behave the same way it has in the past as far as I know.
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:55 pm

craigr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:04 am
Hi All,

I hope everyone stayed cool and rode things out with some smart re-balancing. It's nice to have a portfolio that doesn't make you panic and do dumb things in a market crash.

YTD and 3yr. charts show the PP is smashing a 60/40 index. Low volatility allows re-balancing into the storm without sweating at night. Solid investing is often more about managing emotions rather than high returns. An investor that can keep their cool will come out on top in the long-run. Low volatility investing like the PP proves its mettle once again.

Hope all are well!
Craig, I hope you're doing well and that your business is flourishing.

I'm holding steady with the PP thanks to the work of you and Tex!
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Re: Stay cool...

Post by blue_ruin17 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:28 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:10 pm
I didn't "opportunistically" rebalance. I did it when I crossed a band. I was watching for when that happened using a google sheet I designed to give the indication, without my having to actually check my portfolio. I remember being a little disappointed though, that I didn't rebalance when stocks hit their low point, as some people here did. However, I would have been rebalancing out of cash into stocks, whereas my rebalance involved moving money from cash and bonds (primarily) and a bit out of gold. In the end I don't think it made a lot of difference.

I'm nowhere near crossing any band right now, so sitting tight as per plan.
What bands do you use?
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