I pulled the trigger
Moderator: Global Moderator
-
- Associate Member
- Posts: 39
- Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:46 pm
I pulled the trigger
After countless hours staring at pie charts, speadsheeting, and reading books and articles...
I have reallocated my 401k into a slightly modified GB (with 15% in gold and the leftover 5% in a stable value.)
Hopefully it doesn't all blow up!
I have up until this point been nearly all in equities. (Some was in a balanced fund so I was probably around 85/15.)
I was able to essentially ignore the last big crash, because I felt I still had plenty of years to go. Otherwise it's been fine, due to the seemingly endless rise of stocks.
However, I recently turned 51, and for whatever reason, this triggered an OMG! panic about needing to think about preservation. All my eggs were in one basket.
It's been much easier to leave things alone all this time, even knowing that something was wrong, than to make this big change. Kind of a "psychological momentum."
Along the way, I've discovered that there are a lot of smart people who can make convincing arguments with data about what the "best" path is. But basically they all disagree.
And that took me back to a premise of the PP, which is that "nobody knows what is going to happen, even though sometimes someone makes a lucky guess."
I have reallocated my 401k into a slightly modified GB (with 15% in gold and the leftover 5% in a stable value.)
Hopefully it doesn't all blow up!
I have up until this point been nearly all in equities. (Some was in a balanced fund so I was probably around 85/15.)
I was able to essentially ignore the last big crash, because I felt I still had plenty of years to go. Otherwise it's been fine, due to the seemingly endless rise of stocks.
However, I recently turned 51, and for whatever reason, this triggered an OMG! panic about needing to think about preservation. All my eggs were in one basket.
It's been much easier to leave things alone all this time, even knowing that something was wrong, than to make this big change. Kind of a "psychological momentum."
Along the way, I've discovered that there are a lot of smart people who can make convincing arguments with data about what the "best" path is. But basically they all disagree.
And that took me back to a premise of the PP, which is that "nobody knows what is going to happen, even though sometimes someone makes a lucky guess."
Re: I pulled the trigger
Good move to take account of volatility at age 51. My ah-ha moment was at a similar age.
- europeanwizard
- Executive Member
- Posts: 171
- Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:06 am
- Location: The Netherlands, Europe
Re: I pulled the trigger
Do whatever makes you sleep better at night.
You have ten years on me. But I, for one, didn't want to be one of those people who develop ulcers during the next bear market.
You have ten years on me. But I, for one, didn't want to be one of those people who develop ulcers during the next bear market.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: I pulled the trigger
Good insight.mdwilson1991 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:16 am Along the way, I've discovered that there are a lot of smart people who can make convincing arguments with data about what the "best" path is. But basically they all disagree.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
-
- Associate Member
- Posts: 39
- Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:46 pm
Re: I pulled the trigger
So at the moment I am fairly pleased about having done this switch to a GB-ish portfolio.
As of today, I am down 5.29% on the year, and basically I made the switch right at the start of the year.
If I had stuck with my old portfolio, I would be down something like 20-25%. And I would be WAY more upset.
Things could always go awry, and maybe I will end up regretting the switch, but I am not eating Tums at the moment (at least, not about my portfolio anyway.)
Of course I can still wish I had gone full PP instead of GB, and not dumped 20% into small cap value, a.k.a. the instant money incinerator ...
As of today, I am down 5.29% on the year, and basically I made the switch right at the start of the year.
If I had stuck with my old portfolio, I would be down something like 20-25%. And I would be WAY more upset.
Things could always go awry, and maybe I will end up regretting the switch, but I am not eating Tums at the moment (at least, not about my portfolio anyway.)
Of course I can still wish I had gone full PP instead of GB, and not dumped 20% into small cap value, a.k.a. the instant money incinerator ...
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9472
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: I pulled the trigger
So that must have been the major source of my equity losses? It was bad enough looking at the total losses that I did not examine each component's performance. Bot of my handful of Vanguard Index funds, two of them are the Value and Small Cap Value funds.mdwilson1991 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 am So at the moment I am fairly pleased about having done this switch to a GB-ish portfolio.
As of today, I am down 5.29% on the year, and basically I made the switch right at the start of the year.
If I had stuck with my old portfolio, I would be down something like 20-25%. And I would be WAY more upset.
Things could always go awry, and maybe I will end up regretting the switch, but I am not eating Tums at the moment (at least, not about my portfolio anyway.)
Of course I can still wish I had gone full PP instead of GB, and not dumped 20% into small cap value, a.k.a. the instant money incinerator ...
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: I pulled the trigger
Good for you! And thanks for posting back.
As I was reading through the thread I was nervously anticipating a reply indicating that you had switched back to mostly stocks before the crash.
As I was reading through the thread I was nervously anticipating a reply indicating that you had switched back to mostly stocks before the crash.
-
- Associate Member
- Posts: 39
- Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:46 pm
Re: I pulled the trigger
I have no doubt that your SCV is getting crushed just like mine. Not surprising since a lot of small businesses are likely to go under. Of course many of those are small enough to not even wear a "micro cap", but I can't imagine it's much better for small companies that are traded.vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:40 am
So that must have been the major source of my equity losses? It was bad enough looking at the total losses that I did not examine each component's performance. Bot of my handful of Vanguard Index funds, two of them are the Value and Small Cap Value funds.
Vinny
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: I pulled the trigger
Try not to look at your own holdings in the short term during a crash. It's demoralizing. Look at the benchmark index: bargain! Look at your holdings: disaster.mdwilson1991 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 am Of course I can still wish I had gone full PP instead of GB, and not dumped 20% into small cap value, a.k.a. the instant money incinerator ...
Anyway, you did well. I let my stocks drift to nearly 70% (pp + vp) before the crash. It turns out that merely thinking about rebalancing doesn't count and didn't help.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.