2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

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9-12%
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>21%
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Total votes: 22
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Cortopassi
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2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:49 pm

My pp will end 2019 near the high point for the year, and never went negative. How about yours?
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drumminj
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by drumminj » Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:11 pm

Still have to update a few numbers, but looks to be a little over 15% on the year using simple math (<end value> - <cost basis>)/<cost basis>).

Ending allocation:

Gold: 22.82%
Stock: 26.13%
Cash: 25.45%
LTT: 25.60%
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dualstow
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:28 pm

Twas a good year for the pp.
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Smith1776
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:31 pm

Happy new year, guys!!!
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The Permanent Portfolio will be safe enough to walk away from and forget about completely only if it allows for more than just the problems and hazards that are obvious today. It will have to allow for all of the unforeseeable events of the next 5, 10, 15, or 20 years.
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Smith1776
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:48 pm

2019 results for the Canadian PP. :) :) :)
pcdnresults2019.png
pcdnresults2019.png (83.65 KiB) Viewed 1019 times
EDIT: Actually, December data hasn't been included into Portfolio Visualizer yet, but close enough.
e + 1 = 0
Any computer is a server if you're brave enough.
The Permanent Portfolio will be safe enough to walk away from and forget about completely only if it allows for more than just the problems and hazards that are obvious today. It will have to allow for all of the unforeseeable events of the next 5, 10, 15, or 20 years.
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europeanwizard
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by europeanwizard » Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:49 am

My PP is the normal stuff except it's divided between gold, 7-10 yr. European bonds, world stocks, and the cash is on a 0.5% interest savings account (because we've got a negative rate money market here in Europe, Mario Draghi be damned). I'm still overweight on cash, which will be remedied in the new year.

Furthermore, in my VP, I've got a bit less than 1% in crypto and a bit more than 1% in European P2P lending.

My portfolio program shows me two key indicators:
True Time-Weighted Rate of Return: 9.13%
Internal Rate of Return: 9.35%

Which should be used, actually?
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mathjak107
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:26 am

while i don't use the pp all the time , the components of it i do trade often , plus my other portfolios had a very good year . one of the best on record considering all we spend to live ...

my 5 biggest gainers

voo was my biggest gainer up 105k

TLT clocked in at 40k in gains

gld was 24k

fidelity world wide fwwfx 62k

fcbfx fidelity corporate bond 29k

percentage wise i can't say since all the money trades in different amounts , different number of days invested as well as we are spending down to live from it .


i only track balances year over year that are left on 01/01 . i show up 16% over last year despite pulling 6 figures out to live on and also paying estimated taxes out on the gains . ..

closed out positions show 163k in gains . open unrealized positions stand at 155k for a total of 318k in gains .

plus another 100k in gains from the sale of our remaining co-p apartments which we are still due , since we are closing the LLC up we had , we are waiting until thats done to get the remaining money held in the LLC . so an excellent year for us .

overall though until i buy the pp back i have little in equities .. equities are at about 20% at the moment based on everything including a lot of cash from these sales .

so i have to get that dough back to work .
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:52 am

Looks like mine is up 16%.

VP (global stocks) is up 27.5%.

Looks like even my real estate estimate is up 7.7%. Pretty great year for investing.
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sophie
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by sophie » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:36 am

This year was crazy!

Using the same simplistic calculation that drumminj used, I get 20.1% for 2019. I am sure that's an overestimate because it includes returns from the contributions themselves, but I'm too busy today to figure out how to use XIRR for irregular portfolio checks. Anyway, it nicely balances the 2% loss from last year.

The good part is that my GB handily beat the 60/40 in my 403b at Vanguard.

My first New Year's resolution was to limit portfolio checking to once per 3 months. I did that starting with this one...waited until today to peek. Oddly enough, it looks just fine despite the neglect :-).
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Cortopassi
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:40 am

sophie wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:36 am
My first New Year's resolution was to limit portfolio checking to once per 3 months. I did that starting with this one...waited until today to peek. Oddly enough, it looks just fine despite the neglect :-).
I should make that a goal after I rebalance!
tarentola
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by tarentola » Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:59 pm

My Euro PP of individual Euro HY shares, 15Y+ govt bond ETF, gold ETC and cash: +18%.
Some of my Euro shares came good after years of underperformance, notably the bank Société Générale and the pharma Sanofi.

Vanilla 4x25% Euro PP. ETFs traded in Paris, Google Finance symbols:

EPA:CEU 21.61% MSCI Europe
EPA:MTH 17.99% 25 Y govt bonds
EPA:GBS 17.44% Gold ETC
EPA:C13 0.07% 1-3Y govt bonds
Combined 14.28%

For comparison, a vanilla 4x25% USA PP of SPY, TLT, GLD, SHY made 12.29%.

An unusual year for the PP in that all three risk assets went up by roughly equal amounts.
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Post by Ugly_Bird » Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:01 pm

16.2%
classic HBPP 4x25
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