Prices you bought in at?

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vnatale
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Prices you bought in at?

Post by vnatale » Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:46 pm

For those of you who went all in in the Permanent Portfolio at once (and, have good records)….

What was the date that you went in?

And, at the time of purchase what was the level for the following Big 3 (I have the current levels in ()'s)

Gold - $1,493 ( about 20% below the all-time high on 9/5/11)

S&P 500 - 2,939 (Up 17% over the last six months)

20 Year Treasury - 1.81% (was 6.94% on 1/3/00)

How close do you remember each of your purchases being near to all-time highs?

Thanks
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Prices you bought in at?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:40 pm

When I started the PP:

VTI was at $75.04
30 year Treasuries were at 2.95%
Gold spot was $1,730
1 year Treasuries were at 0.18%

VTI was over $154 July this year. I think it was about at it's peak at the time I started the PP, around what it was in 2007 before it crashed.

Bonds hit 2.09% in July 2016, and recently were at 1.95% earlier this month. I think 2.95%, was considered very low then.

Gold was pretty much at its peak when I bought my first hoard, then it crashed in 2013 and kinda bobbed around between 1100 and 1400 until its recent gains this year.

Prior to 2017, cash was yielding below 1%. Hell, for the first few years I used the PP, a 1 year Treasury yielded about 0.12% ;D It's steadily crept up since then.
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To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
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Kbg
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Re: Prices you bought in at?

Post by Kbg » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:13 pm

As folks know, I do a leveraged PP and the relevant anecdote is lost money on UGLD 5 years straight. Last time I checked, the least profitable purchase is up 70+%.

Just buy the stuff, rebalance when your band is hit and be happy.
jacksonm2
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Re: Prices you bought in at?

Post by jacksonm2 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:48 pm

Can't remember the exact date I bought in but I think it was some time in 2008 after the financial meltdown. I believe gold and bonds were doing well at the time while stocks were crashing which I found impressive after reading about the Permanent Portfolio.

Don't remember the prices I bought in at but what I do remember is that stocks recovered quickly, gold took a deep plunge leaving me in the red on the total purchase until just this year, and bonds mostly held their own.

Had I stuck with my original mostly stock portfolio I think it might very well be worth more today than it is now but I don't see any point in going there. The permanent portfolio sounded like a very good long term investment strategy and nothing that has happened since has convinced me otherwise (well, not exactly true since I have switched to the Golden Butterfly variant of the strategy).
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vnatale
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Re: Prices you bought in at?

Post by vnatale » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:18 pm

I have enormous investing inertia. Just don't make many buys or sells. Actually for the most part I set up my portfolio as it was in January 2003 and it has stayed exactly the same. I've not bought or sold anything from it. ALL new money since then has gone into the Vanguard Prime. Exhibit A of my investing inertia. It was good during the 2008 / 2009 downturn to have so much in the money market. But not so good afterwards. However there was enough in that portfolio from January 2003 to give excellent gains. For the last several years though I've realized for what I need I've had too much at risk. So, more investment inertia while trying to decide how to best mitigate that risk. Meanwhile since the November 2016 election I've been rewarded handsomely this time around for investing inertia by having so much equity investment that had not been moved to something less risky. I believe that in many ways the Permanent Portfolio will serve me well. It is a plan with excellent rationale behind it and I will end up with a much safer investment and, more importantly, one with much less volatility. At this point in my life, the reduced volatility is far more important than superior earnings (but at the cost of far more risk and volatility).

Vinny
jacksonm2 wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:48 pm
Can't remember the exact date I bought in but I think it was some time in 2008 after the financial meltdown. I believe gold and bonds were doing well at the time while stocks were crashing which I found impressive after reading about the Permanent Portfolio.

Don't remember the prices I bought in at but what I do remember is that stocks recovered quickly, gold took a deep plunge leaving me in the red on the total purchase until just this year, and bonds mostly held their own.

Had I stuck with my original mostly stock portfolio I think it might very well be worth more today than it is now but I don't see any point in going there. The permanent portfolio sounded like a very good long term investment strategy and nothing that has happened since has convinced me otherwise (well, not exactly true since I have switched to the Golden Butterfly variant of the strategy).
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