Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by ochotona » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:41 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:36 pm
ochotona wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:26 am
sophie wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:18 am
Another strategy: wait until the PP as a whole goes through a negative performing couple of months and then buy in.
This is a great idea.
I disagree. I think this is a terrible idea. What if the next time the PP has sustained negative returns is 10 years from now? You think waiting 10 years for that event is better than just jumping in or DCA?
Didn't mean to try to wait years before jumping in. I meant start buying when everyone on the forum is complaining, which is several times a year.

End of 2015. End of 2016. One year ago. Those times. Did you forget already? Usually coincident with whats-his-name "Budd" being an ash.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Kbg » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:44 pm

This isn't unique to the PP but every time the PP has had a bad year, the next year has been one of its best years. However, given the DDs experienced historically I don't see any point to waiting to invest.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Pet Hog » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:41 am

Tyler wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:57 pm
I hear ya. It's true that we don't have a lot of data for rising rates. But we do have a full decade of truly skyrocketing rates. And during that time the PP still stayed right within its normal band of returns.

Personally, I don't think the PP was driven by falling rates any more than it was driven by gold coming off the gold standard or the record stock bubble in the 90's. With any portfolio, one can point out reasons to doubt any individual asset. To me, the beauty of the PP is that it truly internalizes this doubt and doesn't place its bets on any of them. And that's exactly how it is so stable over time even in the face of market turmoil.
I wonder what would be the result if we modeled the PP going back in time from today. My gut instinct is that it wouldn't be too bad, even though stock and bond prices would go pretty much downhill all the way. Rebalancing and reinvestment of higher dividends might save the day. Tyler, is that something easy for you to try modeling?
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Tyler » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:43 pm

Pet Hog wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:41 am
I wonder what would be the result if we modeled the PP going back in time from today. My gut instinct is that it wouldn't be too bad, even though stock and bond prices would go pretty much downhill all the way. Rebalancing and reinvestment of higher dividends might save the day. Tyler, is that something easy for you to try modeling?
Interesting idea. I'll have to think about it. My first impression is that calculating bond returns with reversed interest rate movements isn't too hard, but I have major doubts that the exercise would meaningful without also finding some way to account for how a prolonged period of rising rates might have also affected the stock and gold markets. Assets don't operate in a vacuum.
Last edited by Tyler on Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:55 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:44 pm
This isn't unique to the PP but every time the PP has had a bad year, the next year has been one of its best years. However, given the DDs experienced historically I don't see any point to waiting to invest.
The volatility is so mild relative to other options, timing the purchase is really a palliative step. It's psyching yourself out in a good way.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:57 pm

Pet Hog wrote:
Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:05 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:24 pm
For those of you who have FULLY embraced the Permanent Portfolio and made your investment all at once can you reveal where each of the three volatile investments stood at the time of your investment? In other words, how close was each to its market high or low at the time of your investment.
I completed buying all the components of my PP in May 2013. Within about three months I was down 7%. Ouch. I guess I bought at some highs. (I'm now at almost 4% real annualized over the six years.) So I understand your concerns and everything you say sounds reasonable and well thought out.

Sure, I think we're due for some dramatic market turbulence in the next couple of years, but there seems to be so much doom and gloom in the personal finance world these days that perhaps it's already factored in (i.e., if everyone thinks we're going to crash it's unlikely to happen). If I were to make some bold predictions, I think treasury yields could go to zero or negative, gold could double, and stocks could halve. In that case, the PP would do very well and a rebalance or two would happen into then-very-affordable stocks. If we muddle through the next few years, then the PP will probably function as usual.

My experience has been that there wasn't a time during the last six years when it was possible to say, "now is a great time to invest in the PP!" -- it's always been seemingly overvalued/scary. But I'm very content with my holdings and I expect to do OK going forward. I'm not going to cash out my PP today; flip that logic on its head and I would have to be happy to buy into it today. With the three volatile assets seemingly overvalued, I suspect that you prefer to hold 100% cash. Given the two choices, I'll stick with the PP. Who knows what will happen. Not me!
Are you a prophet??!! Another one in which "the next couple of years" comes to fruition in less than six months!

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:20 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:12 am
Nasty day today for gold and long term treasuries....this is what scares me about the way they seem to be joined at the hip...the supposed yin and yang can be quite powerful and nasty when things that are supposedly uncorrelated stay bedfellows

You somewhat echoed this in something you wrote somewhere today?

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Pet Hog » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:50 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:57 pm
Pet Hog wrote:
Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:05 pm
Sure, I think we're due for some dramatic market turbulence in the next couple of years, but there seems to be so much doom and gloom in the personal finance world these days that perhaps it's already factored in (i.e., if everyone thinks we're going to crash it's unlikely to happen). If I were to make some bold predictions, I think treasury yields could go to zero or negative, gold could double, and stocks could halve. In that case, the PP would do very well and a rebalance or two would happen into then-very-affordable stocks. If we muddle through the next few years, then the PP will probably function as usual.
Are you a prophet??!! Another one in which "the next couple of years" comes to fruition in less than six months!

Vinny
I wish! I would have traded the last month so profitably (prophetably?). I like my prediction in red. No, I have just held tightly to my 4x25 PP. I am up YTD after today's huge gains in stocks and gold.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:11 pm

jhogue wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:46 am
vnatale,
If there is any “flaw” in your thinking, it is that you have not fully considered the role that Cash plays in the HBPP. You are correct: all of the “volatile” PP assets are at/near all time highs. On the other hand, Cash is at/near an all time low. Years of ZIRP have convinced the consensus-driven herd on Wall Street that cash is trash. That should be the signal to you to invest in a high level of safe and liquid cash as you transition your portfolio to the HBPP.

I don’t worship at the altar of Warren Buffett, but I will note that there is a good and simple reason why this famous value investor is reportedly holding over $100 billion in Treasurys: he can’t find anything cheap to buy either. So don’t just be fearful when others are greedy. Be patient while others are impatient. Hold Cash and lots of it. You won't sorry when one of those high-flying assets comes crashing back to earth.
Rereading what you wrote....but first reflecting on what I initially wrote to start this....Cash and equities have gone done while long-term bonds and gold have increased. Which is somewhat is supposed to happen almost all the time under Permanent Portfolio theory? Some down while some up?

However, is not what you are advocating called market timing? Holding cash and waiting for the right time to buy something? If so, the eternal question is whenever is the "right time"?

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:16 pm

sophie wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:08 am
At any given time, at least one of the PP assets will be at an "all time high". That's called "getting returns on your investments". It kind of makes me laugh, because the phrase "all time high" suggests an exceptional situation, not something that's expected - it's why you're buying that asset in the first place, isn't it?

The problem is you can't predict where each asset will go, except you can be pretty confident that at least one asset will go down. There's no pre-defined ceiling on any of the assets. Did anyone at the start of this year predict the transient bump in bonds, with the 30 year dropping to a 2% yield? I bet not. We all thought bonds were at their bottom. Similarly, no one thought gold would be going up. Might it go up further? Sure, why not? The current shock in the money market system might well trigger something like that, and if it doesn't, something else could. A week ago we didn't have any idea that a crisis was about to hit money markets.

So what if gold and bonds do go down? If they are, it means stocks are rising, probably a lot. Cash also provides a good ballast. In 2013 there was a big drop in gold, but with the PP's structure the portfolio was (as usual) quite stable. My own PP was actually flat for the year, plus I got to tax loss harvest.

If you're a bit skittish about buying in, then transferring in gradually over time might be easier than holding your nose and jumping all in. It does help to set things up in a way that will let you tax loss harvest when appropriate.
I say that the above proved to be a descriptive forecast of what has actually taken place over the last month or two! Our Prophetess Sophie strikes again!

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:24 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:52 pm
When I started the PP:

VTI was at $75.04
30 year Treasuries were at 2.95%
Gold spot was $1,730
1 year Treasuries were at 0.18%

VTI was over $154 July this year. I think it was about at it's peak at the time I started the PP, around what it was in 2007 before it crashed.

Bonds hit 2.09% in July 2016, and recently were at 1.95% earlier this month. I think 2.95%, was considered very low then.

Gold was pretty much at its peak when I bought my first hoard, then it crashed in 2013 and kinda bobbed around between 1100 and 1400 until its recent gains this year.

Prior to 2017, cash was yielding below 1%. Hell, for the first few years I used the PP, a 1 year Treasury yielded about 0.12% ;D It's steadily crept up since then.
Now when I read this one and knowing where prices are today (somewhat) all I can think about is: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"!!!!

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:36 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:52 am
exactly my point ... we have little in the way of data points with all 3 moving up together when bond rates are so low . bonds at this level are the ones i worry about the most ..we saw tlt plunge 7% in a matter of days before a bounce ...at these levels i would be very careful with long term treasuries and go mostly intermediate term ...
Maybe the "prudent" thing to say? But mathjak does not get the "prophet" crown for this one.

VInny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:44 pm

zosoo7 wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:52 pm
I understand your hesitation. I am in a similar situation with my non-retirement accounts and decided to move forward and go all in on PP last week. I personally feel the PP can be entered into at any time because the underlying belief is to remove speculation, and the 4 assets classes theoretically give you protection against drastic losses.

While purely anecdotal and historical, I moved all my retirement accounts into the PP ~ 1 year ago. At the time, it was against all logic to put 25% of my savings into long term treasuries, I mean interest rates could only go up causing bond prices to drop, right? At the time, TLT was trading for $119 a share, and now look at it (~ $141). It's an example of why I like the PP so much, it accepts the irrationality of the market and prevents you from having to worry about it. So I agree it's unsettling seeing stocks, gold, and long term treasuries "high" right now, but the truth is nobody knows what's going to happen next.
Now today at $170!!!

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:45 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:36 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:52 am
exactly my point ... we have little in the way of data points with all 3 moving up together when bond rates are so low . bonds at this level are the ones i worry about the most ..we saw tlt plunge 7% in a matter of days before a bounce ...at these levels i would be very careful with long term treasuries and go mostly intermediate term ...
Maybe the "prudent" thing to say? But mathjak does not get the "prophet" crown for this one.

VInny
Everybody here loves to hate on the long bonds, but they just keep delivering. Some day long bonds will go down, just like some day all assets will go down... but the day is not today. Matter of fact, with the $170 break out today from weeks of bullish consolidation, if we get follow through tomorrow I'm planning on buying into it in my VP.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:49 pm

KevinW wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:34 pm
All I can say is, I've been talking about the PP online since 2008 (11 years and counting!) and the entire time, people have been constantly asking this question. "I like the PP but this moment seems like a bad time to buy in because reasons, what should I do?"

Throughout this time the PP has worked as predicted. After some time passes, it almost always turns out that the moment in question was a fine time to buy in. While it's true that there have been a few brief single-digit dips, the portfolio recovered and reverted to the mean. (And this modest negative volatility is predicted as well.)

The market clearing price is the one that puts bull and bear attitudes in balance. So at any given moment one can make a bearish argument that convinces roughly half of market participants, or a bullish argument that accomplishes the same. The premise of the PP is that it allows you to act without necessarily buying into any of these narratives.
zosoo7 wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:52 pm
While purely anecdotal and historical, I moved all my retirement accounts into the PP ~ 1 year ago. At the time, it was against all logic to put 25% of my savings into long term treasuries, I mean interest rates could only go up causing bond prices to drop, right? At the time, TLT was trading for $119 a share, and now look at it (~ $141).
This is a good example of how this usually pans out.
Absolutely LOVE reading posts like this one!

VInny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:07 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:36 am
The kryptonite to the pp today is rising rates .. in that case time will tell but it may not be very well hedged under todays conditions and that is the scary part ...as rates go lower and lower the odds of them reversing course become greater and greater ... i think counting on negative rates here would be the long shot... as Bernstein said , the problem is you are placing equal amounts of money on outcomes that stand anything but equal amounts of chances of playing out ... so as much as we like to think the pp is neutral , at times it may not be as rising rates can hurt all 3 asset classes at once and with the pull each asset class has act like a 75% equities portfolio would under the wrong outcome as the 3 classes get yanked down together . we saw that recently when rates headed up past 3% ... . .

for most of the pp history , except for some speed pumps along the way , the trend was for rates to fall .

Image
On the other hand, I've read this one by mathjak several times and each time I read it it comes across as full of sound logic.

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:09 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:12 am
Nasty day today for gold and long term treasuries....this is what scares me about the way they seem to be joined at the hip...the supposed yin and yang can be quite powerful and nasty when things that are supposedly uncorrelated stay bedfellows

However, on the flip side.....

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:13 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:42 am
plus not only are gold and rates joined at the hip but we have equities at a high at the same time ... that makes for some wild moves in the pp which can be right on par with high equity portfolio volatility wise . yesterday we saw a .70% move in the pp with gold losing almost 2% and bonds losing 1.50%, that .70 % move is almost like a 200 point move in the dow for comparison gain or loss wise on 100% equity .

so we are really in uncharted waters with the pp .. so i can see why those deciding to enter the pp now are looking at this and questioning whether they are guaranteeing themselves losses from here for years to come unless the remote odds of negative interest rates happen .

40 years of pp history since the 1980's having a trending down in rates for the most part may have little in common with the future
once rates bottom and reverse with so much correlation between powerful asset classes .

we are also now uncharted in the instantaneous news world as well as uncharted social media influence on investments.

time will tell but it can be a wild ride if this keeps up .

i think if i was looking to invest a sizable sum today ,which i will be if our closing goes through today on some investment property , i would divide it in 3 . i would only put 1/3 in something like the pp at this stage , 1/3 in my fidelity insight income model which is a more conventional 25% equity model with far shorter duration's and no gold and the last 1/3 in to the insight 60/40 growth and income model which also has far shorter durations on the bond side .
From the point of view of today how "remote" do those possibilities now seem?

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:17 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:09 am
it is not the issue of it being at a high . in this case the pp has very little history with rising rates as a trend the last 40 years ... that is my concern .

we had from the 1980's what amounted to speed bumps not trends in rising rates . it is rising rates that can be the pp's kryptonite . those who are using the pp for low volatility may be in for a much wilder ride when 3 asset classes move at once in the up or down direction . up is good but down may give the portfolio users much more of a ride then they bargained for ...TLT and GLD can be very volatile when they make 1-2% moves together and you have cash doing nothing and equities potentially down too if rates climb .

while the portfolio may still do okay i think users will have to get used to a lot more volatility as the new normal unless they adjust a bit in to intermediate term treasuries . so i think we are pretty much in uncharted waters today unlike the past and i would never go by what any asset did in the past even under similar conditions if we had them .

i will go on record here saying that my opinion is i think holding to much in long term treasuries is betting on the long shot of having negative rates here or betting on low rates to continue .. the portfolio which really is supposed to be neutral in design has ended up being a bet on low and lower rates and no longer neutral in the way assets are becoming strange bedfellows .

So far that particular bet has seemed to have paid off?

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:20 pm

Tyler wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:57 pm
I hear ya. It's true that we don't have a lot of data for rising rates. But we do have a full decade of truly skyrocketing rates. And during that time the PP still stayed right within its normal band of returns.

Personally, I don't think the PP was driven by falling rates any more than it was driven by gold coming off the gold standard or the record stock bubble in the 90's. With any portfolio, one can point out reasons to doubt any individual asset. To me, the beauty of the PP is that it truly internalizes this doubt and doesn't place its bets on any of them. And that's exactly how it is so stable over time even in the face of market turmoil.
Another one of those "gem" paragraphs by Tyler.

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:22 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:44 pm
This isn't unique to the PP but every time the PP has had a bad year, the next year has been one of its best years. However, given the DDs experienced historically I don't see any point to waiting to invest.
DD's = ????

Daily drawdowns?

Daily dips?

??????

Vinny
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Vil » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:52 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:22 pm
DD's = ????
Think its just DrawDown. The same way as MDD is Max DrawDown. Those are the notations I have seen so far..
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Vil » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:55 pm

By the way, do not know about the others, but I found it nice the way you ressurect some old stuff. That really helps lazy guys like me ^-^
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by ppnewbie » Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:30 am

I think there is a decent probability rates go negative. In real terms they are already negative. Return free risk anyone? And with the fed essentially admitting that there really aren’t any rules (at least for now). They gleefully say “we can just create unlimited ledger entries”. I don’t think they are following any specific rules.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Vil » Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:16 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:30 am
I think there is a decent probability rates go negative.
You may know better than me, but isn't there a sort of law (or regulation?) forbidding the rates going negative in US ? Can recall read this somewhere - was something like a law/regulation change have to be voted by Congress.. I am not necessarily saying that Congress cannot vote it, if that's what they see as needed.
But IMHO, in a country where people are used to make money out of other money, suddenly to expose a rule "you are taken money if you keep your account with us" will be hugely unpopular move and may have quite unpredictable market responses...
I am not good enough in economics but cannot see something dramatically improved here in Europe (or in Japan,etc) with negative rates in place, so I guess those guiding examples would be taken into account too...
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