Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

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whatchamacallit
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Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by whatchamacallit » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:23 pm

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joypog
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Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by joypog » Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:34 am

Hahah half 60/40-half HBPP. I dig it. For my kids' 529s I just do the Vanguard target date funds - accurate to their age. I thought it's not the end of the world to rely a bit on conventional wisdom.

42.5 US TSM
20 ITT
12.5 LTT
12.5 STT
12.5 Gold

That said... it wouldn't be a big step to take that portfolio and go to the golden butterfly - just break up the TSM in half and barbell the ITT and you're there (albeit slightly underweight gold).

Then again I'm a 1/N weirdo.
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD (+ a little in MF)
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:46 am

The author says that "never before has this portfolio behaved so badly" than 2022, and then just says "use options and bitcoin/eth" to make it not behave so badly? BTC/ETH got slaughtered in 2022.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
belgo
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Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by belgo » Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:25 am

Alternatively what I have been thinking of but never did is Instead of a 50/50 Bogle/PP to do leveraged PP instead? If there is one portfolio on which leverage should not be too risky, it should be the PP? And a moderate leverage could bring the average long term return to the level (equity) investors are comfortable with but with still a lower volatility and a neutral view on the future instead of betting on prosperity as the economic scenario.
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dualstow
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Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:31 am

belgo wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:25 am
leveraged PP instead?
You might enjoy threads like this one - https://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/v ... =10&t=9310
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
Iran's looking bright lately. Especially at night
Gold pulls back to 1900
seajay
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Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by seajay » Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:25 pm

Leverage just tends to broadly scale volatility, not overall broad rewards. That said, I prefer a leveraged PP as for me its more tax efficient. Short treasuries (cash and LTT) i.e. sell them, to add more stock/gold.

I get lending to the treasury, buying treasuries, when money was gold. Lend that gold to the state/King, be paid interest such that when the loan was repaid you held more gold than before. Nowadays, fiat currency since the 1930's, and you need to sell gold to lend money to the treasury and all-told upon maturity/repayment and you re-acquire gold you could very well end up with less ounces of gold than you held before.

For me the extra yearly volatility isn't a issue, as I'm not looking to lump all-in or all-out at a single point in time.

PV

As a UK based investor, Pounds in UK home, US dollars invested in US stock, gold non-fiat global currency is broad enough currency and asset diversity. As well as reduced counter-party risk (house and gold in-hand). Similar to what the Talmud advocated millennia ago.

Dislike the concept of lending fiat currency (buying treasuries) to a entity that can print/spend (induce inflation), dictates the interest and taxation rates, can change the rules. Seems much like lending to a dodgy car lot dealer to me.

For drawdown there's no need to rebalance between stocks and gold, just drawing your income from whichever is the most higher valued at the time is enough. There's no purchase tax on British legal tender gold coins, nor are there any taxes on sale. Similar to old copper penny coins where you weren't taxed on copper price increases when 'selling' coins. So stocks in tax exempt account, physical gold coins, bought once, sold piecemeal (income withdrawals if the value of gold is greater than the value of stocks). Your primary home is exempt from capital gains taxation when sold, nor is imputed rent benefit taxed, the rent that would otherwise have to be found/paid.
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Hal
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Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by Hal » Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:54 pm

seajay wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:25 pm
As a UK based investor, Pounds in UK home, US dollars invested in US stock, gold non-fiat global currency is broad enough currency and asset diversity. As well as reduced counter-party risk (house and gold in-hand). Similar to what the Talmud advocated millennia ago.
Not a terrible choice. If you are taking that approach have a listen to BelangP & Maneco64(?) British investor.
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seajay
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Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Post by seajay » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:18 pm

Thanks Hal

I have previously watched a few of BelangP's youtubes but do find them too lengthy for my liking, so I'm not a follower.
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