If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Hal
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by Hal » Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:25 pm

joypog wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:28 pm
Indeed, behavioral risk is my biggest fear with the PP. I'm curious whether my wife and I will have the stomach to handle the upcoming turmoil that the US is heading into (my guess). Psychology is in trying times and I'm not immune.
^^^ Quote of the Week ^^^

and on Bernstein
And therein lies the real problem with the TPP: because of its huge tracking error relative to more conventional portfolios, it attracts assets and adherents during crises, then sheds them in better times. Theres nothing wrong with Harrys portfolio nothing at all but theres everything wrong with his followers, who seem, on average, to chase performance the way dogs chase cars.
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm

ps: That's why I like the GoldSmith portfolio. Instead of seeing the individual assets classes swing widely, you just see the price of Gold & VDCO. Much better if you have a weak stomach for volatility.
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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joypog
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by joypog » Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:47 pm

Hal wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:25 pm
ps: That's why I like the GoldSmith portfolio. Instead of seeing the individual assets classes swing widely, you just see the price of Gold & VDCO. Much better if you have a weak stomach for volatility.
ohh I dig the idea. It's an elegant process when the novelty wears off and I don't feel like finetuning the portfolio.

On the gold front...I'm curious how many people actually hold cold outside of their home country? I'm looking at the Perth mint...we still need to do some more research...hell maybe I'll become a real libertarian when it's all said and done! I was surprised when my wife didn't completely roll her eyes into the back of her head when I floated the idea of buying physical gold out of country.
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:30 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:59 pm
dockinGA wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:53 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:46 pm
Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time?

Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment.

Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well.

Seems like a loser to me and glad I sold out when I did.

Just think long and hard about your decision as I too was smitten by Craig and Medium Tex after reading their book.

Sounds great in principle, in practice it lets you down over and over.
By my calculations, that means the PP is down 6% YTD. If you were all stocks, you're down 13%. 60/40 would be down 11% or so. Explain to me how this portfolio has failed?

If you (or anyone else) signed up for the PP or something like it expecting that it would NEVER LOSE MONEY then you didn't fully understand what you were getting in to.

I understand I am talking to a wall.......
...and prey tell what did you give up the last 12 years in gains? I could fall 50% and still be ahead of the PP, maybe more. Also, why are you comparing to a 60/40? That’s not equivalent to a portfolio that has 25% in stocks. Take a little of your own medicine friend.


Bud , I don’t post anymore , but I did want to say that I show the pp down about 7.66% ytd

The insight income model which is 25% equities too , and no gold and no long term treasuries is down 7.80% …

So it really doesn’t matter if it is the pp or more conventional models , they are all pretty much doing the same ..,you can’t blame the gold and long term treasuries as the income model is 25% equites and the rest an assortment of short term bonds , high yield and total bond funds and they are neck and neck with the pp.

if one thought the pp would be down a lot less then a conventional model , well then they assumed wrong . so performance is about the same regardless now .
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vnatale
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:22 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:30 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:59 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:53 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:46 pm

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time?

Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment.

Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well.

Seems like a loser to me and glad I sold out when I did.

Just think long and hard about your decision as I too was smitten by Craig and Medium Tex after reading their book.

Sounds great in principle, in practice it lets you down over and over.

By my calculations, that means the PP is down 6% YTD. If you were all stocks, you're down 13%. 60/40 would be down 11% or so. Explain to me how this portfolio has failed?

If you (or anyone else) signed up for the PP or something like it expecting that it would NEVER LOSE MONEY then you didn't fully understand what you were getting in to.

I understand I am talking to a wall.......


...and prey tell what did you give up the last 12 years in gains? I could fall 50% and still be ahead of the PP, maybe more. Also, why are you comparing to a 60/40? That’s not equivalent to a portfolio that has 25% in stocks. Take a little of your own medicine friend.



Bud , I don’t post anymore , but I did want to say that I show the pp down about 7.66% ytd

The insight income model which is 25% equities too , and no gold and no long term treasuries is down 7.80% …

So it really doesn’t matter if it is the pp or more conventional models , they are all pretty much doing the same ..,you can’t blame the gold and long term treasuries as the income model is 25% equites and the rest an assortment of short term bonds , high yield and total bond funds and they are neck and neck with the pp.

if one thought the pp would be down a lot less then a conventional model , well then they assumed wrong . so performance is about the same regardless now .


Great to see you here again, Mathjak! I always value what you have to say.

Yes, performance is about the same -- for this quite short-term of four months. However, those who chose the Permanent Portfolio way are not in it for the short-term but for the long-term.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by dockinGA » Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:33 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:58 pm
dockinGA wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:54 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:59 pm
dockinGA wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:53 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:46 pm
Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time?

Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment.

Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well.

Seems like a loser to me and glad I sold out when I did.

Just think long and hard about your decision as I too was smitten by Craig and Medium Tex after reading their book.

Sounds great in principle, in practice it lets you down over and over.
By my calculations, that means the PP is down 6% YTD. If you were all stocks, you're down 13%. 60/40 would be down 11% or so. Explain to me how this portfolio has failed?

If you (or anyone else) signed up for the PP or something like it expecting that it would NEVER LOSE MONEY then you didn't fully understand what you were getting in to.

I understand I am talking to a wall.......
...and prey tell what did you give up the last 12 years in gains? I could fall 50% and still be ahead of the PP, maybe more. Also, why are you comparing to a 60/40? That’s not equivalent to a portfolio that has 25% in stocks. Take a little of your own medicine friend.
I'm comparing the 60/40 because it's a commonly held portfolio, moron. I wish you would leave like Mathjak did. Surprisingly, I think you have EVEN LESS to provide to this forum than he did, and that's a remarkably low bar to clear.
You’re an angry fella aren’t you and you display your ignorance for everyone to see by calling me names. Do you always harass others that don’t share your same opinions?

Now, to highlight your stupidity, I will explain why a 60/40 allocation is a bad comparison. If you know how to use the search functionality, you can query this board and see countless examples why 60/40 should not be used. I know firsthand you see because I used that very example and others pointed out it was a poor comparison since the PP only had 25% in stocks.

To prove your point that a 60/40 allocation has underperformed the PP YTD you chose to use the same allocation that others have chastised me for in the past.

You can’t have it both ways...use the comparison when stocks are down (PP winning) and conversely disallow the comparison (PP losing) when stocks are up.

I’ve read the books, listened to HB’s podcasts, love the idea of the PP, but it doesn’t live up to expectations. It’s like putting and coming up short of the hole every time.
There's much worse 'names' I could've used that would've been at least as accurate, if not more.

Speaking of website functionality, and also noting that Mathjak has posted again (while saying in his new post that he doesn't post on this forum), I will finally be figuring out how to block commenters. Listening to the constant whining and moaning from you and MJ is not worth my time.
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buddtholomew
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:42 am

[quote=dockinGA post_id=239829 time=1651332839 user_id=3661]
[quote=buddtholomew post_id=239821 time=1651280338 user_id=83]
[quote=dockinGA post_id=239820 time=1651276453 user_id=3661]
[quote=buddtholomew post_id=239812 time=1651265958 user_id=83]
[quote=dockinGA post_id=239811 time=1651265596 user_id=3661]
[quote=buddtholomew post_id=239809 time=1651261619 user_id=83]
Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time?

Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment.

Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well.

Seems like a loser to me and glad I sold out when I did.

Just think long and hard about your decision as I too was smitten by Craig and Medium Tex after reading their book.

Sounds great in principle, in practice it lets you down over and over.
[/quote]
By my calculations, that means the PP is down 6% YTD. If you were all stocks, you're down 13%. 60/40 would be down 11% or so. Explain to me how this portfolio has failed?

If you (or anyone else) signed up for the PP or something like it expecting that it would NEVER LOSE MONEY then you didn't fully understand what you were getting in to.

I understand I am talking to a wall.......
[/quote]

...and prey tell what did you give up the last 12 years in gains? I could fall 50% and still be ahead of the PP, maybe more. Also, why are you comparing to a 60/40? That’s not equivalent to a portfolio that has 25% in stocks. Take a little of your own medicine friend.
[/quote]
I'm comparing the 60/40 because it's a commonly held portfolio, moron. I wish you would leave like Mathjak did. Surprisingly, I think you have EVEN LESS to provide to this forum than he did, and that's a remarkably low bar to clear.
[/quote]

You’re an angry fella aren’t you and you display your ignorance for everyone to see by calling me names. Do you always harass others that don’t share your same opinions?

Now, to highlight your stupidity, I will explain why a 60/40 allocation is a bad comparison. If you know how to use the search functionality, you can query this board and see countless examples why 60/40 should not be used. I know firsthand you see because I used that very example and others pointed out it was a poor comparison since the PP only had 25% in stocks.

To prove your point that a 60/40 allocation has underperformed the PP YTD you chose to use the same allocation that others have chastised me for in the past.

You can’t have it both ways...use the comparison when stocks are down (PP winning) and conversely disallow the comparison (PP losing) when stocks are up.

I’ve read the books, listened to HB’s podcasts, love the idea of the PP, but it doesn’t live up to expectations. It’s like putting and coming up short of the hole every time.
[/quote]
There's much worse 'names' I could've used that would've been at least as accurate, if not more.

Speaking of website functionality, and also noting that Mathjak has posted again (while saying in his new post that he doesn't post on this forum), I will finally be figuring out how to block commenters. Listening to the constant whining and moaning from you and MJ is not worth my time.
[/quote]

I’ll meet you anywhere anytime and we can settle this like men you pussy. Your insight is about as valuable as a 2nd grader although that may be too harsh for the little kid. Probably taller and smarter than you’ll ever be.
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mathjak107
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 30, 2022 2:22 pm

It’s dicks like dockinginga that are the reason I stopped posting here..their nastiness and personal attacks are out of control.

I won’t post on a forum that accepts personal attacks as the norm
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Apr 30, 2022 3:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by dualstow » Mon May 02, 2022 6:48 am

🚧 Overseas gold discussion moved to new thread - Overseas Gold 2022. 🚧
Let 2022 be the year of GOLD
2-YR Treasury notes are paying ~3.2% / Auction open at Vanguard right now
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by Maddy » Mon May 02, 2022 6:52 am

And you thought the problem was politics. . .
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Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Post by stpeter » Mon May 02, 2022 8:18 pm

Don wrote:
Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:16 am
I'm looking at a market crash ahead. Which asset in the PP will save us? Also, any non PP assets, possibly like TBT?
If the stock market crashes far enough (and who knows if it will?), you'll hit your rebalance bands and buy low. There's a reason this forum is called Gyroscopic Investing. :-)
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