Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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barrett
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby barrett » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:50 am

Gerard van Nes wrote:I have results starting in 2002.

......

PP index PP index
2002 -2,4% -2,4%
2003 5,6% 3,2%
2004 6,4% 9,6%
2005 19,4% 29,0%
2006 7,6% 36,6%
2007 5,5% 42,1%
2008 -3,3% 38,8%
2009 13,4% 52,2%
2010 13,4% 65,6%
2011 5,1% 70,7%
2012 8,0% 78,7%
2013 -3,4% 75,3%
2014 9,6% 84,9%
2015 1,7% 86,6%
2016 8,7% 95,3%
2017 -0,5% 94,8%
Average 5,9%



Gerard, Can you share the CAGR or do you just have the average? Also, do you have reliable Dutch inflation numbers for that time? At least I think you are Dutch. I'd be really curious to know the real return of a European/Dutch PP with all the discussion on here about how the PP works outside of the US. Thanks.
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby Gerard van Nes » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:19 am

Yep Dutch, Sorry. no CAGR. I used this just as an benchmark against my own portfolio (10% cash, 20 % gold, 30 % LT Bonds, 40 % Equities // average yield 6,4 % so slightly better).

I dont have inflation figures but I think you can google them. My guess is around 2% for this period. So real return will be around 4 %.

It will no make you rich but that's is the HB philosophy, you make money with almost no effort and with sleepwell nights. :)
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby WhiteElephant » Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:39 am

I've got data going back to 2001. Most of my data are yearly index returns from MSCI and Barclays indices. I've used some data from the old Marc de Mesel website.
The indices I've used are the MSCI Emu, Barclays Euro Government 15-30 and Barclays Euro Government 1-3.

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frugal
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby frugal » Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:17 am

Hi

what is the difference between EU-PP and VANILLA PP ?


Regards!

:)
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby WhiteElephant » Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:27 am

It's a basic eurozone PP, with 4x25 eurozone stocks, eurozone bonds, eurozone cash and gold
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby Gerard van Nes » Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:38 am

Thx, the figures slightly differs but the conclusion is the same; it wont make you rich but it is the best sleep well approach.
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby frugal » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:46 pm

Hi,

some years ago we could find in some countries in Eurozone, 3-4-5% for cash deposit in some banks.

This ended forever?

The high rate for cash will never come again?

Regards.
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby Gerard van Nes » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:29 am

Of course it will, the government has pumped billions into the economy. That money will also go out again, so inflation and thus the cash yield rates will increase. It may be next year or over 10 years but it will happen.
And when inflation is rising it is very hard to control it so it may be quite destructive the next decade. (Just keep your Gold portion safe:) ).

"In the simplest terms, inflation occurs when there's too much money in the system. On the flip side, deflation occurs when there are too few dollars in circulation. Robert Kiyosaki".
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby europeanwizard » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:15 pm

Gerard van Nes wrote:Yep Dutch


Another Dutchie here. Thanks for your valuable posts!
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby tarentola » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:29 am

These are results from my real 4x25 portfolio of Euro shares with Euro and EM share ETFs, bond ETFs, gold ETFs and cash. Not very different from the US Vanilla PP figures of -2.24, +10.10, -2.99 and +5.9% for the same four years.

2013 -3.04%
2014 +12.39%
2015 +1.42%
2016 +7.08
Average 4.30%
2017 +2.1% so far, improving since the summer.

PS (off topic): I also have a separate portfolio of US and UK blue chip dividend shares, which in spite of the present US market highs is down 3.5% in Euros since 1 Jan 2017.
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby frugal » Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:01 pm

tarentola wrote:These are results from my real 4x25 portfolio of Euro shares with Euro and EM share ETFs, bond ETFs, gold ETFs and cash. Not very different from the US Vanilla PP figures of -2.24, +10.10, -2.99 and +5.9% for the same four years.

2013 -3.04%
2014 +12.39%
2015 +1.42%
2016 +7.08
Average 4.30%
2017 +2.1% so far, improving since the summer.

PS (off topic): I also have a separate portfolio of US and UK blue chip dividend shares, which in spite of the present US market highs is down 3.5% in Euros since 1 Jan 2017.


hi!!!

4,3% and what about inflation?

Do you think to change to a more aggressive lazy portfolio?


Regards
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Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

Postby tarentola » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:53 am

4,3% and what about inflation?

It does not beat official inflation by much, and perhaps does not beat real inflation at all. But multiple-year periods of underperformance are not unusual.
Do you think to change to a more aggressive lazy portfolio?

Such as...? If you have a concrete suggestion and some evidence that it works or has worked, I would be delighted to know about it. I have backtested or consulted portfoliocharts.com for quite a few variants but cannot find anything that beats the PP for reasonable returns and limited drawdowns.

The poor 2017 Euro performance of the US and UK dividend share portfolio is largely due (I hope) to the dollar's having lost 12% of its value relative to the Euro since 1 Jan, while the pound lost 4%.

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