Search found 257 matches
- Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:19 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4265
Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
I have a question that you all might have some idea about. I own two lots of LTTs, with 27 and 28 years left to maturity. I bought them with yields of about 3%. Each price today is over $140. Both gained around 7% on Friday. Crazy! Let's say I bought $10,000 of bonds. Now they're worth $14,000. If I...
- Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:23 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Negative interest rates
- Replies: 57
- Views: 25054
Re: Negative interest rates
From a quick google search I found that, according to this chart , there are $1.46 trillion US dollars in circulation (paper money, greenbacks). According to this PBS article , the population of the US is 331 million. That means each person could hold, on average, about $4400 in cash. What that tell...
- Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:53 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
- Replies: 14
- Views: 10782
Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the d...
- Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:00 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Another solid January
- Replies: 15
- Views: 13672
Re: Another solid January
If you see my initial post in this thread, stocks have not been consistently good in January in recent years. Whereas, gold has been outstanding.
- Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:07 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Another solid January
- Replies: 15
- Views: 13672
Re: Another solid January
January did it again.
Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.
VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58
PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.
VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58
PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
- Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:10 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
- Replies: 14
- Views: 10782
- Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:45 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
- Replies: 14
- Views: 10782
Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Well spotted! With no obvious end-of-day spike relative to other gold ETFs, perhaps we are finally truly getting into premium territory. I'll probably sell if the premium gets above 1%, but will keep an eye on the price and not rush it. It's not been above 1% since November 2016. Thanks for the head...
- Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:01 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Forum / Team?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 7826
Re: Forum / Team?
I imagine Pointedstick saying this line in this style.Pointedstick wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:28 am You must harden your heart and crush them remorselessly if you want to preserve your society.
- Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:40 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New all-time high
- Replies: 30
- Views: 18285
Re: New all-time high
Sure, Vinny -- it does seem like a good time for an update. I'm at an all-time high again. It looked like the PP had peaked in early September 2019, but it ended the year with a surge during the the last few trading days. My PP gained a nominal 16.7% in 2019 (about 14.3% real -- I'll know more accur...
- Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:24 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Golden Butterfly
- Replies: 28
- Views: 10578
Re: Golden Butterfly
I believe WiseOne means "40% bands" for the PP as 0.25 ± 40% (or 0.25 ± 0.10, from 0.35 to 0.15). And "30% bands" for the GB as 0.20 ± 30% (or 0.20 ± 0.06, from 0.26 to 0.14).
- Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:24 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Asset locations
- Replies: 46
- Views: 15192
Re: Asset locations
Somehow the section from the book on Tax Deferred Accounts that I put here did not show up? "Tax-Deferred Accounts (Speaking of gold, bullion is taxed as a “collectible” at a special high 28% capital gains rate, so there is an advantage to holding it inside an IRA.) I believe this line from th...
- Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:55 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
- Replies: 19
- Views: 8901
Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
The logic here is flawed about if rates go up ...selling a bond that lost value because rates went up and losing money is no different then selling a losing stock and buying something you think is better .... a loss is a loss and it does not come back ...you just. Hope what you buy next be it anoth...
- Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:44 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
- Replies: 24
- Views: 12853
Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
I agree with mathjak that it's the same. TLT holds 38 different bonds in a ladder. See the Portfolio/Holdings section here . Buying that ETF is akin to you holding the same ladder. It shouldn't make a difference if you rebalance your PP by buying treasuries directly or buying them through TLT. Ther...
- Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:08 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
- Replies: 19
- Views: 8901
Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that matter? I think in theory it doesn't matter what the coupon is -- positive, zero, or negative. All that matters is the volatility. Th...
- Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:08 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Podcasts
- Replies: 80
- Views: 29489
Re: Podcasts
Guy dismantles the first chapter of Why We Sleep , via Tyler Cowen . Thanks, Kriegsspiel. That's a well articulated critique. This smackdown is exactly how peer review should work, but I think (from personal experience -- when I was a chemistry postdoc I must have reviewed hundreds of manuscripts) ...
- Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:27 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Selling long term bonds to rebalance?
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1931
Re: Selling long term bonds to rebalance?
That's what I intend to do (although I'm targeting a 25-to-30-year range). Longer-maturity bonds have greater volatility, and that's what we are trying to take advantage of with the PP strategy. I guess there might be tax considerations that would favor selling longer-maturity holdings, so you shoul...
- Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:19 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
- Replies: 24
- Views: 12853
Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
I agree with mathjak that it's the same. TLT holds 38 different bonds in a ladder. See the Portfolio/Holdings section here . Buying that ETF is akin to you holding the same ladder. It shouldn't make a difference if you rebalance your PP by buying treasuries directly or buying them through TLT. There...
- Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:39 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: RIP Paul Volcker
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2822
Re: RIP Paul Volcker
Imagine how long George Burns could have lived if he wasn't a smoker!
- Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:30 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
- Replies: 24
- Views: 12853
Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
Hi mdwilson1991 In my opinion, an important part of investing in the PP or GB is considering the performance of the total portfolio, as a whole, and not that of its individual components -- one or more of which will inevitably be sucking at any one time. Perhaps it will be LTTs that will suck in the...
- Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:26 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: TLT Historical?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 2453
Re: TLT Historical?
Yahoo has TLT data back to 2002. Both "closing prices" and "dividend-adjusted closing prices," as well as all dividends and their payment dates. That Nasdaq link has only one set of prices -- and it's not obvious if they are dividend-adjusted or not.
- Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:06 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Too bad George Orwell isn't around to see this
- Replies: 18
- Views: 6453
Re: Too bad George Orwell isn't around to see this
I think Vinny was just having fun with Newspeak. No. It's a phrase it seems I've recently frequently heard. Vinny Perhaps Vinny meant to write, "Not all crimes are impeachable offenses and not all impeachable offenses are crimes"? "All crimes are not impeachable" sounds like a p...
- Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:48 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
- Replies: 243
- Views: 173350
Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?
Pet Hog, I disagree with your assumption that “someone in the accumulation phase has greater risk-tolerance” and therefore can be (ought to be?) more aggressive with their investments. Consider a couple of real-world examples: Example #1. 52 year old female (divorced, with 3 kids) came down with br...
- Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:15 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
- Replies: 243
- Views: 173350
Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?
I was responding to I have no problem with cash being defined as up to five-year treasuries/CDs And the rest of that sentence is, "but I'm in the accumulation phase." I think someone in the accumulation phase has greater risk-tolerance toward any changes in interest rates and/or emergenci...
- Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:01 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
- Replies: 243
- Views: 173350
Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?
- Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:45 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
- Replies: 243
- Views: 173350
Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?
... imagine you suddenly need to use cash at the same time that five-year treasuries sharply decrease in value. How mature is that ladder? How many of those treasuries can you really sell in a pinch without much of a loss? Can you give an example of such a situation? Because as a PP investor in the...