I just posted these numbers on the Bonds>"TLT Negative YTD" thread, but thought they might be of interest here, too.  The real yields over the last one, five, and ten years have all been greater than 5%.  This year has been slightly positive.  No cause for concern, yet, in my mind. YTD ret...

For a longer-term view... Five-year returns (dividends reinvested; Apr 30, 2010 to Apr 30, 2015) TLT: +60.28% VTI: +95.60% IAU: –0.87% SHY: +4.31% PP Total: +39.83% (+6.94% annualized) Inflation: +8.31% (end Apr 2010 to end Mar 2015; +1.61% annualized) PP real: +5.33% annualized Ten-year returns (di...

Here you go, dragoncar.  No fun today.  Now we're on track for a below-average, yet positive, year.  But YOY, we are still slightly above average (I consider +5.2% real as my benchmark).  If I remember, I'll update the real yields and inflation numbers when the CPI-U is announced for April on May 22...

Inspired by ochotona's hope for a 7% return this year, I ran some numbers for the first third of PP 2015.  Not great performance, but not terrible, at +1.55% nominal (0.99% real).  Annualized, that would be about 4.7% nominal.  With almost no inflation, we're on track for quite an average real PP re...

You may be right, since they say "NAV to NAV basis" but I don't really know what that means.  Maybe it means they will offer to exchange PHYS for GTU on a 90% NAV to 100% NAV basis.  They haven't made a legal offer either way so it's talk and speculation at this point. My understanding co...

Basically, PHYS intends to buy GTU, in which case you'll just end up shares of PHYS.  This is a good deal for PHYS since GTU trades at a discount. Correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like PHYS is going to buy GTU at its NAV, so there should be no discount for PHYS.  They'll be buying all of GTU'...

Beautiful post, MWKXJ.  You seem to know your stuff when it comes to CEFs.  So can I ask why do you (or anyone else if they care to chime in) think the discount on the NAV for GTU is so large (>8% today)? Compared to stock and bond CEFs, GTU is dead simple.  A vault it Canada holds X ounces of gold,...

PS, a machine that takes individual atoms and assembles them into anything you want is, in effect, performing chemical synthesis.  That's currently really hard to do on anything other than the nanoscale (more like the angstrom-scale), but such a technology is feasible.  But mixing protons, neutrons,...

I have tried modeling this portfolio using numbers from peaktotrough.com.  The numbers don't match the Simba numbers exactly, but it's good to get a second opinion. Year Stock Bond Gold Top 2 Add 10% 1972 18.2 5.6 39.7 1973 -15.6 -8.0 75.6 30.0 26.2 1974 -27.5 2.1 66.1 34.1 28.0 1975 36.1 7.1 -24.8 ...

Hi azmat9 I think your numbers are a bit off.  Could you check them again?  For example, there is no data for 1985: Year Annual Stocks Bonds Gold 1984 31.2 31.7 30.7 5.3 1986 21.1 17.9 24.2 20.8 Also, there are several instances where you don't seem to have followed your rebalance strategy.  For exa...

Here is a chart of the CAGRs of PPs started on 1/1/1972 and ended on 1/29/2015 (the same date range as above, using the same daily data).  The rebalance bands are "traditional" equally ranged ones (35/15, 30/20, 40/10, and so on), but I have modeled all ranges (25 ± x) from ±0.1% (rebalanc...

Are you're looking for symmetrical 41.67%/15% rebalancing bands so that losses are covered to breakeven back at the 25% point? MG, the traditional bands for the PP (30/20, 35/15, 40/10) don't capture "buy low" as well as they do "sell high."  These "25 + x" and "2...

Hi Buddtholemew If you check http://www.peaktotrough.com/hbpp.cgi and put 1/1/1972 as the starting date, rebalance as "none," and reinvest dividends as "yes," you will get a CAGR of 8.24%.  That matches my value.  I agree, unbalanced equals more volatility, and with the 81.17/2.5...

In May 2013, my first post on this forum considered 40/15 rebalance bands as an alternative to 35/15 or 40/10.  My argument remains that 40/15 bands better reflect the doubling or halving of a PP component and that they catch an even number of rebalances on the downside and upside.  My limited testi...

My dream job would be one where every ounce of effort I put into it would benefit me materially, physically, and spiritually, not just (or maybe even not at all) financially.  Ultimately, that means complete self-sufficiency and financial independence.  I would love to use permaculture techniques to...

As of today my PP is already up 4% YTD.  While gratifying, it is also a bit scary — are these gains merely temporary?  To see what has happened in the past, I took data from peaktotrough.com and ran some numbers.  Looks like the historical answer is that a 4% monthly gain is not particularly likely ...

I wonder, is there really much opportunity to boost returns by investing in stocks once you've amassed great wealth?  Why take the risk of that 50% haircut?  The CAGR of the PP (35/15) since 1/1/1972 has been 9.28%, while for the S&P500 it has been 9.58% (dividends reinvested, numbers from peak2...

I have some EE bonds that hit their doubling date recently. They are now earning about 1.4% and I am thinking seriously about cashing them in, paying taxes on the gains , and putting the proceeds into a Roth IRA (I am self-employed and can put quite a lot into the Roth/Solo 401k Roth combo). Hi Bar...

Since I don't use rebalancing bands, I'm wondering...  how close is gold to hitting the 15% since the peak in 2011? Using peaktotrough's data, a PP started on August 22, 2011 (gold's all-time high) with 35/15 rebalance bands and reinvested dividends would have undergone rebalancing on May 17, 2013,...

Hi tdepaula! There is a lot of advice on this thread (and in this forum in general) about keeping a separate PP in each separate account, with the aim of simplifying rebalancing.  In your case, I don't think that's necessary.  Correct me if I am wrong, but you will have a regular taxable brokerage a...

It's because mustard gas is derived from the erucic acid in rapeseed oil. As an organic chemist, I must object!  The chemical structure of erucic acid (a long-chain fatty acid) is completely unrelated to that of mustard gas (a short sulfur-containing molecule).  There is no way anyone would synthes...

Update:  The premium on GTU right now is -9.3%.  That's the lowest I have seen in the last 18 months or so, during which time it has hovered mostly around -5%, but reaching, as mentioned above, -1% at one time.  I'm going to wait until I breach my 15% band, but this discount sure is tempting me to r...

Sex with 21 women lowers risk of prostate cancer.  Simultaneously or consecutively?

My take on evolution is basically this: 1.  The basic concept makes little to no common sense.  Mutations are overwhelmingly negative, not positive, and the series of positive mutations required to produce even small improvements in a life form are extremely unlikely. Quantum theory makes no common...

Because there is no proof that it is wrong it must be true?  Evolution explains a lot and to that degree "works".  But there are some whopping holes i.e. things that it seems very unlikely to be explainable by the same mechanism that explains the rest.  Anyone can be convinced of anything...