Search found 1052 matches
- Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:56 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
- Replies: 50
- Views: 26843
Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Here's an article from Bloomberg regarding the aluminum merry-go-round: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-20/the-goldman-sachs-aluminum-conspiracy-was-pretty-silly After reading that I was reminded of Hanlon's razor : "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by...
- Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:14 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
- Replies: 50
- Views: 26843
Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
More hard evidence of large banks manipulating commodities - this time from a US senate report naming JP Morgan, Goldman-Sachs and others: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/senate-report-criticizes-goldman-and-jpmorgan-over-their-roles-in-commodities-market/ http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...
- Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:53 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
- Replies: 50
- Views: 26843
Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
I was just reading through Jesse Livermore's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and came across this passage, which made me think of all the claims of market manipualtion in the gold market: As I have said a thousand times, no manipulation can put stocks down and keep them down. There is nothing myst...
- Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:56 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: CAGR over time
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4124
- Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:56 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Great new diet idea
- Replies: 2
- Views: 2326
Re: Great new diet idea
For years I had to annoyingly crush the Doritos into the Mountain Dew bottle, well, no more! Problem solved!
http://time.com/3573045/doritos-flavore ... pocalypse/
http://time.com/3573045/doritos-flavore ... pocalypse/
- Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:37 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Asset Volatility Question
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4823
Re: Asset Volatility Question
Fun thread. Great chart Gosso! Just one thing...how is the pain/gain ratio calculated? Interestingly, the 60/40 appears to be very close to the PP or better for almost all the time except some periods in the 1970s. I imagine that's the eras when gold was skyrocketing. That's a bit counterintuitiv...
- Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:24 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Asset Volatility Question
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4823
Re: Asset Volatility Question
The gain to pain ratio shows that the PP has had a tough couple of years, while the 60/40 has enjoyed much happiness. The chart below shows the gain to pain ratio measured over two year rolling periods (the higher the G/P the better). It's pretty interesting - I bet it would be a leading indicator...
- Fri Nov 07, 2014 8:16 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
- Replies: 9
- Views: 4068
Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Gosso, Can you please explain this further? Does it mean that for every down month in the PP, there are 1.65 up months? Real or nominal? Thanks. You're close, it also measures the magnitudes of the positive months vs negative months. The numbers I used were inflation-adjusted (real), from Jan-1972...
- Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:51 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
- Replies: 9
- Views: 4068
Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Use a "learning" data set and a "testing" data set. That is, fit your model to some subset of the data, and then look at how the predictions work on the rest of the data. For example, if you have 10 years worth of data, fit parameters based on the first 7 years, and see how th...
- Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:35 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
- Replies: 7
- Views: 5138
Re: 130 Years of 60/40
I posted this quote from William Bernstein on the 60:30:10 thread, but I think it's relevant to this discussion as well. Since it was illegal to own gold until 1975 I'd suggest running your numbers starting in 1980; you'll get quite different results. It was illegal to own physical gold, but it was...
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:30 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
- Replies: 7
- Views: 5138
Re: 130 Years of 60/40
It is obvious to me that gold smooths out the rough periods for stocks and bonds (at least when gold is allowed to freely float).
It is basic math. The PP wins.
It is basic math. The PP wins.
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:21 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: YouTube Junkie
- Replies: 1231
- Views: 651864
Re: YouTube Junkie
Anyone with an interest in sailing must check our "White Spot Pirates": https://www.youtube.com/user/WhiteSpotPirates
Not only is she a cute german gal, but she has more balls than most of us.
Not only is she a cute german gal, but she has more balls than most of us.
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:50 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
- Replies: 7
- Views: 5138
130 Years of 60/40
I wasn't sure where to post this, but I thought it belong along side the PP as a comparison. I've had this data for awhile but thought I'd share it with y'all (it is up to date to the end of 2013). The first is a 60/40 (60% stocks, 40% 10 years US bonds) adjusted for inflation, with dividends and i...
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:50 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 670112
Re: Stock scream room
I haven't seen stocks move like this since Shakira's "Hips Don't Lie": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUT5rEU6pqM
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:46 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Strategies for Compulsive Portfolio Checkers
- Replies: 30
- Views: 17270
Re: Strategies for Compulsive Portfolio Checkers
Try Fantasy Hockey or Football. I now waste most of time looking up hockey stats than stock stats.
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:42 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: How is Gold Priced?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 5099
Re: How is Gold Priced?
Gold is priced by how many times Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Eric Sprott appear on TV in a given month. :) Try Googling the "silver fix", since there were some rumblings about it when one aspect of it was shutdown a few months back. I don't think it has much impact for guys...
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:18 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Drinking is healthy
- Replies: 28
- Views: 16423
Re: Drinking is healthy
I came across this Youtube video and thought I'd post it here:"Why Do I Drink So Much?"(3 minutes)
- Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:09 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Cold Fusion (E-Cat)
- Replies: 53
- Views: 16931
Re: Cold Fusion (E-Cat)
Another interesting article on cold fusion: "Cold fusion reactor verified by third-party researchers, seems to have 1 million times the energy density of gasoline" Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat — the device that purports to use cold fusion to generate massive amounts of cheap, green energy – has be...
- Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:43 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alibaba
- Replies: 5
- Views: 2700
Re: Alibaba
Alibaba +38% Yahoo -2.7% Wad da Frac? One interpretation is that there were some people who owned Yahoo simply as a proxy for owning Alibaba. Once they could own the real thing, they got out of the substitute. EDIT: And nice to see you around these parts again, Gosso! I heard some people saying th...
- Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:34 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: YouTube Junkie
- Replies: 1231
- Views: 651864
Re: YouTube Junkie
Hey Mountaineer! I was out touring my PVC drum set.Mountaineer wrote:Gosso! Great to see you. Where have you been? Missed your posts.
... Mountaineer
- Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:02 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: YouTube Junkie
- Replies: 1231
- Views: 651864
- Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:54 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alibaba
- Replies: 5
- Views: 2700
Re: Alibaba
Alibaba +38%
Yahoo -2.7%
Wad da Frac?
Yahoo -2.7%
Wad da Frac?
- Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:31 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Reserve Currency
- Replies: 4
- Views: 2525
Re: Reserve Currency
I wouldn't change anything. Maybe purchase some stocks from the new reserve country(ies). I don't like the idea of purchasing foreign bonds since the currency fluctuations will make them extremely volatile, and hedging the currency risk is generally expensive and results in large tracking errors. ...
- Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:36 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4076
Re: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me
mgtow, The US still has some of the most important and powerful companies in the world, and the companies in the S&P500 derive roughly 50% of the revenue from outside the US. And lets not forget that holding the S&P500 gives you exposure to the USD, which is still the reserve currency of th...
- Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:11 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4076
Re: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me
I agree with most of your post. Keep in mind that there is little difference between a barbell (short and long) and bullet (intermediate) bond allocations as long as the overall bond duration is roughly the same. I personally think most PPers would be less stressed with intermediate bonds, but I d...