On the topic of how countries could deal with foreign bondholders during a euro currency crisis.
It's obviously more likely that domestic bondholders will be treated "better".
Now i'm wondering how an Irish Ishares etf that holds bonds from my own country would be treated, hmz..
Search found 242 matches
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:17 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
But that's only because of the USD-denominated assets, so just adopt a US PP. What exactly is the problem with doing that? Everybody assumes the US will be the last man standing, which probably makes that scenario less likely to happen. I would effectively make a bet on the US, and not just the USD...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
I realise it's a luxury problem, but it's still a problem.AnotherSwede wrote:[Because I don't../quote]
Me neither
what an awful problem, having that much money in these times.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:48 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
75% stocks? Holy shit, to each his own but to be 75% in stocks right now?AnotherSwede wrote:I have a mortgage and have not been able to rationalize paying much more interest than I get.
So I have 75% global equity, 25% gold and try paying off the mortgage.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:43 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Let me put it like this for all the people who still say it's all ok and will work out. Lets just say: - you have 25 - 30 yearsalaries in euros. - you live in Europe - most of it is in cash, part of it is in a euro PP - you obviously cannot hold this in cash (especially euros!) Who here will claim w...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:30 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Ok, my currency (krona) follows the euro, pounds are worse. I am afraid euros (and bunds) are not worse off than other currencies, even if the euro breaks it must be replaced, 1 to something, by something. It remains to be seen if Germany or whatever country's bonds you hold, will convert foreign c...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:12 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
By not being 100% invested in euros.AnotherSwede wrote:How?Not if you can prevent that to begin with. Which you can.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:07 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
If the alternative is worthless currency and equity it is. If the alternative is slowly, but not smoothly, losing nominal value, then smooth-ish 0% return is really good. Not if you can prevent that to begin with. Which you can. I am just questioning a quick and orderly return to positive yields an...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:40 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
It doesn't make any sense to hold a portfolio where you have a chance of retaining a part of your capital.AnotherSwede wrote:25% gold and whatever could be saved of the rest.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:46 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
A global PP (using https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/e ... -ucits-etf for the bonds), and using a total world ETF for stocks would have never broken down completely.
It does break the PP concept entirely though.
It does break the PP concept entirely though.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:32 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification. Certainly, a widely diversified portfolio like the Permanent Portfolio is way better in those cases than one just using stocks/bonds which is what many would recommend....
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:22 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:19 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
5-10% ?AnotherSwede wrote:How horrible would a return to 5-10% interest rate be? What would happen to pension funds, real estate prices?
I suppose pensions would have to be fully funded by tax money.
As of right now, the world's financial system would pretty much implode entirely.
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:57 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Selling "cheap" euros now and buying very "expensive" dollars in 1 go right now is also a major risk, that should have been done 2 years ago. To be honest, nothing looks good for euro investors atm. That may or may not be a bad trade if the Euro goes kaput which is what all thos...
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:51 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
It's pretty simple. Yields can only go so far negative, at a certain point it becomes cheaper to stack piles of cash and/or use gold. So there is a floor. Efforts to prevent that, such as making cash illegal, should just make you run away like hell, and not think " well it should work because ...
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:50 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
This package appears to be much safer especially compared to a euro based PP. We are absolutely in unchartered waters, so we simply cannot backtest the permanent portfolio and assume it's normal behaviour will continue, especially not the euro PP. This has simply never happened before. I think you ...
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:44 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
I understand this immensely. But at 1% or lower long bonds provide little insurance. It would be better to greatly reduce duration as you suggest, or go to cash and look to just ride things out with the other assets. How do you figure that? The convexity will increase so that it's still capable of ...
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:02 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Then you would be totally crazy to stay invested in euro paper.AnotherSwede wrote:What if they continue lowering yield by .2-.3% each year? More and more negative.
Stock valuations will continue becoming more and more insane.
Cash banned, if deemed necessary, but probably not.
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:12 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165161
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Sure, It's just not very likely to see rates at -8%....buddtholomew wrote:Rates can and have gone negative.dutchtraffic wrote:Yes, but the lower the yield, the less potential capital gains left.MachineGhost wrote:
You're not in bonds for the yield, but capital gains.
Capital gains are not capped when bonds reach zero.
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 6:22 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Again I am starting to think more and more about a global portfolio to try and get through this total madness. The percentage figures are pretty much pulled out of my *** so they would probably change. 10% Short term govt. bonds/cash in local currency - iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF /...
- Sun Oct 16, 2016 2:33 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165161
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
You americans have nothing to complain still ;) The euro version of TLT (https://www.ishares.com/nl/particuliere-belegger/nl/producten/251775/ishares-ebrexx-government-germany-105yr-ucits-etf-de-fund) is yielding 0.35% ..... I am not fully invested yet and i need to invest quite a lot of euros........
- Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:03 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
"the german 20year etf is yielding 0.35%" Is the US rate higher because of expected inflation? ie the real rates for safe 1st world countries should be the same? (equilibrate) None of the bond rates make any sense right now, as they are effectively set by the government (yeah yeah..), and...
- Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
I'm not sure what you mean?MachineGhost wrote:You must avoid stocks and invest in other Prosperity assets or the PP is effectively broken.
I'm not avoiding stocks, i have a fully normal (EU) PP.
- Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Dutch wealth tax is pretty bad, but you can get some 5 year cd's which yield about 0.8% real, so -0.4 after tax which is not too bad I guess in this environment. Net taxes are probably slightly lower as the first 20/40k are not taxed. Eurozone 30y bonds yield less than 5y cd's so they should probab...
- Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:53 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
I might just collar some dividend stocks for a super low risk approach to capture at least some yield, untill things normalize...if they ever will. (http://www.investireoggi.it/forums/attachments/gsstockstobonds148-1-pdf.86895/) This paper describes using a collar with put spreads, though I wouldn't...