OTM has better returns than buy and hold.
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- Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:40 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
- Replies: 88
- Views: 65478
- Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
- Replies: 88
- Views: 65478
Re: Trump's Effect on the PP
It should lower volatility AND increase returns, we're not talking about writing ATM calls, there is enough upside room left. Nonsense. Selling volatility does NOT lower volatility in the long-run . You are making a anti-Black Swan bet. Moreover, a 10% allocation doesn't increase returns: Your grap...
- Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:17 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
- Replies: 88
- Views: 65478
Re: Trump's Effect on the PP
I made a topic about this but nobody seems to pick up on this. http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8723 There's just nothing to say. It does nothing for risk control and it breaks the risk parity. It's just a Prosperity enhancement like many other possibilities, except its ...
- Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:32 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
- Replies: 88
- Views: 65478
Re: Trump's Effect on the PP
One strategy that I was surprised that never gained traction here was selling calls and puts as a way to boost returns. It seems like there should be a way devise some sort of algorithm around the rebalancing bands that gives an indication of what level to sell calls and puts. With highly volatile ...
- Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:41 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
- Replies: 88
- Views: 65478
Re: Trump's Effect on the PP
Why would the tax cuts only be for "the rich"....?
That's a total false statement, watching a bit too much of the left media?
That's a total false statement, watching a bit too much of the left media?
- Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:41 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
- Replies: 88
- Views: 65478
Re: Trump's Effect on the PP
So let me get this straight. Everybody is whining like crazy for ages that rates are waayyyyy too low, and when they finally rise a tiny tiny bit, everybody goes full-mental mode...? Look at the longterm chart, it barely moved, it's still a loonnnnggg way down to get to normal rates. And it's still ...
- Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:37 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
- Replies: 88
- Views: 65478
Re: Trump's Effect on the PP
All 4 of them could decline for the next 300 years.CullyB wrote:What is the maximum time horizon on 2 of the assets falling simultaneously? It sure looks like that might happen for the next 4 years or even 8.
What do you mean..?
- Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:15 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: International diversification
- Replies: 11
- Views: 8703
Re: International diversification
Granted, all fiat money is just paper, but not everywhere is Zimbabwe. In 50 years the US dollar has gone from 4.38 swiss francs to parity, and the pound from 8.58 to 1.68 Singapore dollars. That's structural, rather than market fluctuation. My understanding of the PP is that it is a volatility str...
- Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:48 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: International diversification
- Replies: 11
- Views: 8703
Re: International diversification
It really doesn't make any sense at all to create a PP with singaporean bonds if you live in the UK.
What's wrong with UK bonds? The argument of currency debasement is invalid because every fiat currency ends up worthless eventually.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... D&view=10Y
What's wrong with UK bonds? The argument of currency debasement is invalid because every fiat currency ends up worthless eventually.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... D&view=10Y
- Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:47 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Creating some yield
- Replies: 2
- Views: 3502
Re: Creating some yield
I can't believe nobody is doing this....? I'm using this portfolio now and writing weekly calls with 20-30 delta on all assets except MINT ofc. 20% cash: MINT 20% stocks: SPY 20% stocks: EFA 20% gold: GLD 20% bonds: TLT And calls on these ETFs deliver a lot more than just "a tiny return", especially...
- Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:16 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP and the Election
- Replies: 13
- Views: 10714
Re: PP and the Election
Every asset has been going up at the same time, obviously they can and will all drop at the same time as well. This is just a very minor drop, nothing to panic about at all, what will you do when all 3 assets come crashing down? Don't forget stocks even jumped higher, which were already stupidly ove...
- Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:45 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
1 day before the election i had made my decision to drop my euro assets entirely and move over to a portfolio in USD. Obviously there is still EURO exposure from stocks in the S&P500, and EFA. I switched to a PP-like portfolio: 20% cash: MINT 20% stocks: SPY 20% stocks: EFA 20% gold: GLD 20% bonds: ...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
On the topic of how countries could deal with foreign bondholders during a euro currency crisis.
It's obviously more likely that domestic bondholders will be treated "better".
Now i'm wondering how an Irish Ishares etf that holds bonds from my own country would be treated, hmz..
It's obviously more likely that domestic bondholders will be treated "better".
Now i'm wondering how an Irish Ishares etf that holds bonds from my own country would be treated, hmz..
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:17 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
But that's only because of the USD-denominated assets, so just adopt a US PP. What exactly is the problem with doing that? Everybody assumes the US will be the last man standing, which probably makes that scenario less likely to happen. I would effectively make a bet on the US, and not just the USD...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
I realise it's a luxury problem, but it's still a problem.AnotherSwede wrote:[Because I don't../quote]
Me neither
what an awful problem, having that much money in these times.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:48 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
75% stocks? Holy shit, to each his own but to be 75% in stocks right now?AnotherSwede wrote:I have a mortgage and have not been able to rationalize paying much more interest than I get.
So I have 75% global equity, 25% gold and try paying off the mortgage.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:43 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
Let me put it like this for all the people who still say it's all ok and will work out. Lets just say: - you have 25 - 30 yearsalaries in euros. - you live in Europe - most of it is in cash, part of it is in a euro PP - you obviously cannot hold this in cash (especially euros!) Who here will claim w...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:30 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
Ok, my currency (krona) follows the euro, pounds are worse. I am afraid euros (and bunds) are not worse off than other currencies, even if the euro breaks it must be replaced, 1 to something, by something. It remains to be seen if Germany or whatever country's bonds you hold, will convert foreign c...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:12 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
By not being 100% invested in euros.AnotherSwede wrote:How?Not if you can prevent that to begin with. Which you can.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:07 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
If the alternative is worthless currency and equity it is. If the alternative is slowly, but not smoothly, losing nominal value, then smooth-ish 0% return is really good. Not if you can prevent that to begin with. Which you can. I am just questioning a quick and orderly return to positive yields an...
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:40 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
It doesn't make any sense to hold a portfolio where you have a chance of retaining a part of your capital.AnotherSwede wrote:25% gold and whatever could be saved of the rest.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:46 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
A global PP (using https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/e ... -ucits-etf for the bonds), and using a total world ETF for stocks would have never broken down completely.
It does break the PP concept entirely though.
It does break the PP concept entirely though.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:32 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification. Certainly, a widely diversified portfolio like the Permanent Portfolio is way better in those cases than one just using stocks/bonds which is what many would recommend....
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:22 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification.
- Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:19 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 41729
Re: Slowly bleeding
5-10% ?AnotherSwede wrote:How horrible would a return to 5-10% interest rate be? What would happen to pension funds, real estate prices?
I suppose pensions would have to be fully funded by tax money.
As of right now, the world's financial system would pretty much implode entirely.