Search found 242 matches

by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65478

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

OTM has better returns than buy and hold.

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by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65478

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

It should lower volatility AND increase returns, we're not talking about writing ATM calls, there is enough upside room left. Nonsense. Selling volatility does NOT lower volatility in the long-run . You are making a anti-Black Swan bet. Moreover, a 10% allocation doesn't increase returns: Your grap...
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65478

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

I made a topic about this but nobody seems to pick up on this. http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8723 There's just nothing to say. It does nothing for risk control and it breaks the risk parity. It's just a Prosperity enhancement like many other possibilities, except its ...
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65478

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

One strategy that I was surprised that never gained traction here was selling calls and puts as a way to boost returns. It seems like there should be a way devise some sort of algorithm around the rebalancing bands that gives an indication of what level to sell calls and puts. With highly volatile ...
by dutchtraffic
Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65478

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

Why would the tax cuts only be for "the rich"....?
That's a total false statement, watching a bit too much of the left media?

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by dutchtraffic
Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65478

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

So let me get this straight. Everybody is whining like crazy for ages that rates are waayyyyy too low, and when they finally rise a tiny tiny bit, everybody goes full-mental mode...? Look at the longterm chart, it barely moved, it's still a loonnnnggg way down to get to normal rates. And it's still ...
by dutchtraffic
Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65478

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

CullyB wrote:What is the maximum time horizon on 2 of the assets falling simultaneously? It sure looks like that might happen for the next 4 years or even 8.
All 4 of them could decline for the next 300 years.

What do you mean..?
by dutchtraffic
Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 8703

Re: International diversification

Granted, all fiat money is just paper, but not everywhere is Zimbabwe. In 50 years the US dollar has gone from 4.38 swiss francs to parity, and the pound from 8.58 to 1.68 Singapore dollars. That's structural, rather than market fluctuation. My understanding of the PP is that it is a volatility str...
by dutchtraffic
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 8703

Re: International diversification

It really doesn't make any sense at all to create a PP with singaporean bonds if you live in the UK.
What's wrong with UK bonds? The argument of currency debasement is invalid because every fiat currency ends up worthless eventually.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... D&view=10Y
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Creating some yield
Replies: 2
Views: 3502

Re: Creating some yield

I can't believe nobody is doing this....? I'm using this portfolio now and writing weekly calls with 20-30 delta on all assets except MINT ofc. 20% cash: MINT 20% stocks: SPY 20% stocks: EFA 20% gold: GLD 20% bonds: TLT And calls on these ETFs deliver a lot more than just "a tiny return", especially...
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP and the Election
Replies: 13
Views: 10714

Re: PP and the Election

Every asset has been going up at the same time, obviously they can and will all drop at the same time as well. This is just a very minor drop, nothing to panic about at all, what will you do when all 3 assets come crashing down? Don't forget stocks even jumped higher, which were already stupidly ove...
by dutchtraffic
Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

1 day before the election i had made my decision to drop my euro assets entirely and move over to a portfolio in USD. Obviously there is still EURO exposure from stocks in the S&P500, and EFA. I switched to a PP-like portfolio: 20% cash: MINT 20% stocks: SPY 20% stocks: EFA 20% gold: GLD 20% bonds: ...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

On the topic of how countries could deal with foreign bondholders during a euro currency crisis.
It's obviously more likely that domestic bondholders will be treated "better".

Now i'm wondering how an Irish Ishares etf that holds bonds from my own country would be treated, hmz..
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

But that's only because of the USD-denominated assets, so just adopt a US PP. What exactly is the problem with doing that? Everybody assumes the US will be the last man standing, which probably makes that scenario less likely to happen. I would effectively make a bet on the US, and not just the USD...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

AnotherSwede wrote:
[Because I don't../quote]
Me neither :)

what an awful problem, having that much money in these times.
I realise it's a luxury problem, but it's still a problem.
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

AnotherSwede wrote:I have a mortgage and have not been able to rationalize paying much more interest than I get.

So I have 75% global equity, 25% gold and try paying off the mortgage.
75% stocks? Holy shit, to each his own but to be 75% in stocks right now? :o
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

Let me put it like this for all the people who still say it's all ok and will work out. Lets just say: - you have 25 - 30 yearsalaries in euros. - you live in Europe - most of it is in cash, part of it is in a euro PP - you obviously cannot hold this in cash (especially euros!) Who here will claim w...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

Ok, my currency (krona) follows the euro, pounds are worse. I am afraid euros (and bunds) are not worse off than other currencies, even if the euro breaks it must be replaced, 1 to something, by something. It remains to be seen if Germany or whatever country's bonds you hold, will convert foreign c...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

AnotherSwede wrote:
Not if you can prevent that to begin with. Which you can.
How?
By not being 100% invested in euros.
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

If the alternative is worthless currency and equity it is. If the alternative is slowly, but not smoothly, losing nominal value, then smooth-ish 0% return is really good. Not if you can prevent that to begin with. Which you can. I am just questioning a quick and orderly return to positive yields an...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

AnotherSwede wrote:25% gold and whatever could be saved of the rest.
It doesn't make any sense to hold a portfolio where you have a chance of retaining a part of your capital.
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

A global PP (using https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/e ... -ucits-etf for the bonds), and using a total world ETF for stocks would have never broken down completely.

It does break the PP concept entirely though.
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification. Certainly, a widely diversified portfolio like the Permanent Portfolio is way better in those cases than one just using stocks/bonds which is what many would recommend....
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

Looking at this, the PP would have been totally destroyed in quite a few cases. Some more evidence for geographic diversification.

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by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

AnotherSwede wrote:How horrible would a return to 5-10% interest rate be? What would happen to pension funds, real estate prices?

I suppose pensions would have to be fully funded by tax money.
5-10% ? :o
As of right now, the world's financial system would pretty much implode entirely.