I remember someone (Browne?) writing that gold can take some time, years even, to do its thing. Whether one thinks of it as an inflation hedge, a fear index or whatever, it will not necessarily respond quickly to events, let alone day-to-day happenings and perceptions of those happenings. In the ca...

1990, the Japanese economy is experiencing Ragnarok. Stocks markets are in free fall and a whole country of japanese people are panicking but no reaction in gold. Nikkei 225, 1975 - 2015 [img width=500]http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/servlet/quickviewChart?SERIES_KEY=143.FM.M.JP.JPY.DS.EI.JAPDOWA.HSTA[/img...

Japan has been in deflation for more than 20 years and even so the price of gold in yen has skyrocketed since 2004, which makes no sense whatsoever. http://goldprice.org/gold-price-japan.html Thank you for the hyperlink, did some research on the price charts and noticed price in GBP shows the same ...

Lang wrote: Are you sure that you can't buy government bonds directly? This sounds pretty strange.

Yes, I am sure. Only banks and other wholesalers are offered to purchase directly and these wholesalers doesn't sell to private investors in smaller chunks than 1 million SEK.

I have a hard time figuring out how to invest in bonds and cash. As a private investor in Sweden I have no way to directly purchase government bonds and bills directly, there are however many mutual funds that holds various mixes of fixed income assets. Cash: Could I use a mutual fund that holds a m...

This is the fifth condition: wild money printing that has not yet erupted into hyperinflation. The money they are printing is being used to partly buy equity and partly to pay off bad debts the banks created. As the debt is payed off the amount of credit in the economy shrinks and hence there is a ...

I think I figured  it out, the Permanent Portfolio can not work outside of the United States. Any local economic turmoil in a any other economy other than the super power wouldn't effect the gold. Europe stock markets peaked the 27th of April of 2016, far ahead of the US stock markets. However we di...

The points dissipated in the collective demand and supply for the asset.
Your speculation turned out to be a loss in this case. You have something that fewer people wants to buy compared to when you bought.

I only got 3 quarters of a Permanent Portfolio at the moment, I am not entering stocks until the moving averages indicates a change in the trend. I am well aware that I am risking a sudden unexpected huge swing back. However, I am more psychologically comfortable not seeing part of my portfolio rapi...

If you got a house worth anything you can simply sell, pocket the who profit and move into a rental apartment. Maybe a one room flat. That is a huge downsizing and now your portfolio is worth several 100K more in a relative small amount of time. The yield that the profit will generate might be large...

I've seen this suggestions here a couple of times now. If low/negative interest rates are of concern here, then why in the world would a switch to a shorter duration be sensible, where interest rates would be even lower/more negative?! The issue is the risk of changes in the market price of the bon...

dualstow wrote: Things may drop again tomorrow, but what a day. Time to celebrate.

It will just be a temporary drop, the stock market is far from bottom yet.

Many people are probably reimaging a 2008 or with these low interest rates with a potential to go negative, a japanification of the economy where the stock market will never recover and this is the 25 year ATH.

In times of deflation, indebted corporations may go bankrupt, that was why Harry Browne liked the government bonds because they can always print some more money to pay the bond holders.

We are going parabolic!!!!

I expect a crash tomorrow. Not selling anything though. The stock market is still in free fall.
Stocks down 1,2% today, that isn't an unfathomably large drop. So why are everyone panicking even more than yesterday?

I don't think it is pointless at all. Bonds are there to hedge against deflation which I am sure we will see now in 2016 as the debt and QE bubbles will be popping. When everything tanks the best asset is the fixed income, cash and bonds because everyone else will loose their shirts.

But for the long term, buy & hold portfolio, 0.96% don't fit. I'd be curious to see how Japanese PP investors have done over the past 17 years or so, their rates hit very low levels around 1999 and 2004 already. Chart of Japanese PP from 1992 to 2012: [img width=500]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jL...

A more comprehensive and up to date White paper on Adaptive Asset Allocation:
http://go.investresolve.com/AAA-2015-Download.html

I registered and downloaded, easy and very nicely described methodology. Makes me want to try it out!

And here is one of the researchers Vimeo channel: https://vimeo.com/user11908185 This kind of methodology is obviously above and beyond what Harry Browne talked about and I have no idea what he would have recommended. As far as I know, this kind of thinking wasn't developed until recently. This kind...

After a bunch of experiments I'm not sure modifying the Funnel chart is the best way to show the data, but I'm working on a new calculator to address individual annual returns compared to history more directly.  The goal is to address the question "was last year normal" in a straightforwa...

That's why I find Chart 8 to be so impressive: smoother growth, smaller drawdowns, and higher CAGR! Does anyone know how exactly to implement a 7% target risk PP?  How is the volatility calculated?  It seems that only the percentage of treasury bills was varied in that Japan example; stocks, bonds,...

That image is not the standard 4x25% Permanent Portfolio. That charts shows a portfolio that adjusts the proportions of each assets each month in tandem with rebalancing taking into account the recent volatility of each asset, rebalancing according to volatility rather than capital to try to not let...

A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or som...

Another portfolio for your site:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rTBEZSL7-4

The nice thing with an index is that it is dynamic so your holdings will change iver time to represent the best corporations.