Just pointing out that an 18% drop in a year is not unprecedented for the PP. I don't believe the yearly data show it as it's only happened intra-year so far. Fingers crossed that happens this time too. Yes & besides,WTH else CAN one do that is SAFER with their money. We all pretty much know wh...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:33 pm
Diversification is really the holy grail.

Yes, it absolutely is for the average person.

Unless you're Charlie Munger, or somebody that has inside knowledge like Paul Pelosi, or Mitch McConnell et. al.

Smith got it covered, aside from moving to another economy.... Yeah, I tend to agree. And besides, no way my application for a New Zealand residency visa is gonna be approved before 1/19. ;) Moving to NZ would be like moving from Mussolini's Italy to AH Germany. NZ is a fascist state. Pretty much A...

Developed RE are extremely correlated with Developed Equities. The 'Jacob the Rich' Portfolio is PP like. 25% Gold 25% Sovereigns (long duration for the volitility???) 25% Equities 25% RE I've always maintained that HB derived his portfolio with full knowledge of the aforementioned portfolio. That'...

Developed RE are extremely correlated with Developed Equities.

The 'Jacob the Rich' Portfolio is PP like.

25% Gold
25% Sovereigns (long duration for the volitility???)
25% Equities
25% RE

I've always maintained that HB derived his portfolio with full knowledge of the aforementioned portfolio.

Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on. Yeah, Schiff is also very very certain that he'...

Hear, hear!

The more I know that I don't know & the more years that I research portfolios, the more faith that I have in the HBPP to hold up during pretty much all economic regimes. I think you would have a hard time picking a better Core Portfolio.

Harry didn’t live in our world as it exists today. He may have done things very differently. You really want to go by. What makes sense and drawing large amounts of cash to live on will unbalance the assets of the pp even if still at the fringes of the bands . If you rebalance them to get back your...

This Dude has, IMHO, too much of a "Chauffeur" bias himself AND he's been listening too much to Alastair MacLoed of Goldmoney. The HBPP is biased towards a high inflation/hyperinflationary environment. You would have to be able to recognize that you were in a hyperinflationary regime howev...

Well if markets are down where is all the money you spend down from cash coming from to refill for the following year if that is the source of spending cash ?. Depending how far other assets are hit you may have to buy more of the other assets with any cash left further reducing your cash for spend...

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...

Bitcoin = Gold... uh, NOT.

frugal wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:16 am Hello,

where can I see daily variation of HBPP?

I would like to feel the flutuactions day by day in a chart.

Thank you.

The whole concept of the HBPP is antithetical to this.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .

On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%

SHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.

In addition to asset diversification, the PP includes individual assets volatility diversification. Blending high and low volatility assets is part of the PP's engine design. Swapping to slick from regular tires may very well win one sunny day race, but prove to be critical in another rainy day rac...

<t>It would be interesting to know because if he is, then, I would be interested in his view of the HBPP nowadays, I saw Doug Casey recently and he didn't even know the asset classes, or the allocations of the PP. He was saying some of the original PP asset classes like RE & Silver. He said that...

I was wondering if the Charles Hugh Smith who writes the Blog "Of Two Minds" is the Charles Smith who worked with Harry Browne & Terry Coxen in the 80's and 90's.

Or, just weight energy and whatever else in a VP. That's my strategy.
My theory is, if you're going to run a HBPP, then run it as close to the OG as you possibly can, given the newer Capital Controls with banking and possible limitations with your retirement accounts and so on.

It's a self employed 401k, so I can buy anything you normally could with a Fidelity account. I also have an inherited IRA that I must withdraw within 10 years. That's awesome! You can also consider gold ETFs, I personally use SGOL as it has probably the lowest ER and the gold is based in Switzerlan...

Muchas Gracias Amigo.

No Portfolio is perfect, but for me, having a disciplined mechanistic investment strategy for my Core Retirement Funds that is automatic (15/35) bands works better than most other portfolio strategies. I'm a big gambler otherwise. Looks like I just lost my ass by owning Russian Equities, but my HBPP...

I used to live in the ghetto and had a similar experience. I represented myself (no prior legal training). The system said pay a little money and basically get a slap on the wrist. I said “What if I don’t pay?”. They said “we’ll toss you in jail”. I said “what kind of food do you serve and can I br...

Jason, Many of us feel your pain. Back testing has its limitations but you really should run some different portfolios through portfoliovisualizer.com to get an idea of what different asset allocations have and have not done in the past. Maybe try comparing the PP to a 60/40 allocation. Because you...

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...