Jak, you should start a forum dedicated to your ideas. Or take it to Bogleheads. I mean, the first hundred or so explanations were enough, for me anyway. If people are open to new ideas then rehashing topics can lead to further insights. Mathjak is completely convinced that the growth trends of the...

I have been listening to people for 30 years tell me that hyperinflation and/or a massive stock collapse worse than 1929 are right around the corner. If I had listened to them I would be a lot poorer. If I had completely ignored them I’d be a lot richer. Instead I’m somewhere in-between! Somewhere ...

The commodity is active though...so needs to incorporate some kind of moving average sell and buy signals. I'm not sure about the long volatility either as it is usually accomplished with options...that seems pricy.

What you end up doing is what happens to those who wait for the proverbial crash to buy stocks …they wait so long that they gave up more than they could ever get .. Plus if you are waiting for that flight to safety you are going to be timing to grab that gain because as we know as soon as the smoke...

What you end up doing is what happens to those who wait for the proverbial crash to buy stocks …they wait so long that they gave up more than they could ever get .. Plus if you are waiting for that flight to safety you are going to be timing to grab that gain because as we know as soon as the smoke...

I actually just posted a Chris Cole interview above....first time running across him. Struck me as having a very Harry Browne type investment philosophy. Conversations with members here like Mathjak make me realize that many people really aren't able to see the last 40 years of equity outperformanc...

I'd add...America in 1950 and America today in my mind are almost two completely different nations and cultures. If one were to say stocks and bonds performed well coming out of a 1950s America....then I would expect those would be the worst assets going forward considering how radically different o...

The fact is that your investment time frame stands alone in terms of exceptional returns on stocks and bonds...and that experience colors the entire investment industry's perceptions regarding appropriate asset allocation. All that counts is what our own time frames do … You can back test all the p...

There are other ways....commodity momentum for example VGPMX being some kind of broad commodity index

The fact is that your investment time frame stands alone in terms of exceptional returns on stocks and bonds...and that experience colors the entire investment industry's perceptions regarding appropriate asset allocation.

Oh, to be blessed to have been born and invested over Mathjaks time frame...

Active long volatility and commodity trend following are the two areas that seem most complicated for the average investor. Haven't heard how he proposes actually putting those into practice....any ideas?

I actually just posted a Chris Cole interview above....first time running across him. Struck me as having a very Harry Browne type investment philosophy. Conversations with members here like Mathjak make me realize that many people really aren't able to see the last 40 years of equity outperformance...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkfgEZtJ9LA Worth a listen for anyone doubting the permanent portfolio. Imagine being furnished with generational wealth under one condition – you must choose only one asset allocation for your portfolio and stick with it for 100 years. Where would you even start? Ch...

If you sell at a loss is it a tax write off?

This is a new one to me...Ebay now taxes sales on used goods into almost every state...

Since when are used goods between private sellers taxed??? Do people pay taxes at garage sales now?

If I wasn’t so far behind in the pp I likely would have moved away from it but I think for now the damage is done ... Sunk cost fallacy...you are violating your own philosophy of starting each day new. It's a tough environment to invest in...I don't blame anyone for feeling uncertain about their al...

CEOs are hugely expensive...why not automate them?

https://www.newstatesman.com/business ... ate-them

I don’t have a whole lot of faith in my bet on the pp , I wish I had a better outlook for it but I don’t But yet you seem to have quite a bit of faith in your previous allocation. Why you stick around in this portfolio is beyond me...are you a sucker for mental anguish? Why would you continue to re...

https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/11/20/qqe-to-the-moon-deflation-returns-to-japan-anyway/ Mathjak said: Japan wouldn’t have even been a Japan if they didn’t do all the wrong things in the very beginning that put them in the spiral of deadly deflation Seems like the exactly the same mistakes to me....

Guess that's what makes a market...I have opposite inclination at moment...with corporate debt off the charts, a teetering stock market, and waning stimulus I think we are due for a flight to safety.

You keep assuming the Fed can do something about it. So far, they haven't been able to....and neither have the central banks of Japan or Europe.

I'd really encourage people to reconsider their assumptions....if only to help them become more comfortable with holding bonds. Here are a couple historical graphs that accompanied the attached analysis. Did this lead to inflation? Hardly... https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/03/08/inflation-deflatio...

Yep, that's the narrative....funny how it hasn't worked in the case of Japan...whose central bank has far exceeded what our central bank has done....so not sure what mistakes you are referring too. They went harder and longer than our fed. Short of rewriting federal reserve act to allow direct fundi...