Search found 681 matches

by Dieter
Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 22918

Re: 2014 PP performance

My PP-ish did 7.1% in 2014; started 2014 at roughly 13% "Cash" (STB), 20% Gold, 25% LTT, 42% Stock (~40% of Stock Intl), with a bit of tinkering to get to this allocation, which is more PP-ish than late 2013.... (in an IRA, won't touch for many years, and doesn't include my emergency fund,...
by Dieter
Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What to do? Another rookie wonders HBPP or PRPFX?
Replies: 34
Views: 17468

Re: What to do? Another rookie wonders HBPP or PRPFX?

So, it seems that Barrett and Xan believe it's not necessary to hold any cash in her local bank or to hold any CD's.  I understand the idea about the cash portion of the HB fund and to use that to pay expenses.  I also understand the idea behind funneling all gains into the cash portion upon re-bal...
by Dieter
Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: YTD Performance for PERM & PRPFX
Replies: 16
Views: 21231

Re: YTD Performance for PERM & PRPFX

My PERM is in positive territory now, including reinvested dividends (bought 2 years ago.)
by Dieter
Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Looks Like Today is No Place to Hide
Replies: 5
Views: 3760

Re: Looks Like Today is No Place to Hide

The reason for cash... :)
by Dieter
Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy
Replies: 68
Views: 64941

Re: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy

I like / use Wellesley elsewhere, but for a two funder, an option:   VG Target Retirement Income + 10% Gold Stocks: 27% (19% TSM, 8% TISM) Total Bond: 48% (intermediate term; > 50% Govt; 35% US, 12% Intl) ST Bond (TIPS): 15% Gold: 10% (%'s rounded) Or use VG Lifestrategy Conservative growth (40/60 s...
by Dieter
Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy
Replies: 68
Views: 64941

Re: Replacing Cash with VWINX, the results look juicy

I've also been considering what to do with the Cash part due to low yield, still accumulating, and have a deprecate emergency fund. (Currently my "cash" part is split between VG Prime Money Market and VG ST Bond index, and less than 25% target.) What you have now (assuming other aspects ar...
by Dieter
Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How secure is an all ETF PP if a second market crash happens like in 1929?
Replies: 7
Views: 6696

Re: How secure is an all ETF PP if a second market crash happens like in 1929?

According to various pundits / analysts: * Interest rates have nowhere to go but up (killing Long Term bonds) * Fair market vale of Gold is $600 (aka, 50%+ drop) * Quantitative easing is going to cause massive inflation, destroying the value of cash * Stock market is at an all time high (NOT inflati...
by Dieter
Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Stunning Rise Of Disability, Food Stamp And Welfare Benefits
Replies: 18
Views: 6508

Re: The Stunning Rise Of Disability, Food Stamp And Welfare Benefits

+1 to what moda0306 said.

And yes, there is some abuse of the system.

And improvements that could be made.
by Dieter
Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Interest rates for since 3,000 BC
Replies: 3
Views: 2880

Interest rates for since 3,000 BC

Haven't looked closely, but seemed interesting....

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of ... =pulsenews
by Dieter
Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What's your advice for a non-PP-friendly 401(k)?
Replies: 17
Views: 11983

Re: What's your advice for a non-PP-friendly 401(k)?

Yuck. If it were me, I'd go with a Target Date fund, selecting bases on allocation, not date. The most conservative probably is closest to the PP stock allocation.

But then, I'd probably go 50/50 to 70/30 in a Bogglehead style portfolio. Aka, that is roughly the allocation I have in my 401(k).
by Dieter
Thu Dec 26, 2013 11:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 31874

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Everything's going down in 2014:
  Stocks down 40%
  Gold to $600
  LTT to 6%
  Inflation kills cash
  Dollar tanks

Or some. Or none.

Can always dollar cost average - 20% into PP is 5% of your total portfolio in Stocks, LTT, and Gold....
by Dieter
Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My PPish journey after a year....
Replies: 0
Views: 1723

My PPish journey after a year....

Mayhaps should be in the VP forum, but another 1 year check-in on a PP-ish journey. Background: 70/30 stock/bond slice & diced "Ultimate Buy & Hold" ish portfolio at the time of the market crash (moved from 80/20 a month before the market high -- lucky....) Still lost ~42% by the S...
by Dieter
Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book
Replies: 43
Views: 38500

Re: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book

That's an interesting topic. I think the "one-size-fit-all" of the PP is a little problematic. ... Finally, my personal situation : I'm paying off my mortgage, little by little. I consider this is equivalent to a TLT investment (but it is safer and has a better yield ;) ) so I don't inves...
by Dieter
Mon Aug 19, 2013 11:17 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Secular low in bonds not reached
Replies: 36
Views: 22897

Re: Secular low in bonds not reached

Time to buy, or wait a bit longer. :) :) :) :)
by Dieter
Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:17 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Secular low in bonds not reached
Replies: 36
Views: 22897

Re: Secular low in bonds not reached

Just don't tell them the secret sauce... "We have provided a consistent 3-6% annual REAL return over the last 30 years. Our unique investment approach tactically allocates funds based on market conditions across multiple distinct asset classes." (Aka, 4x25. 15/35 rebalance bands) Although ...
by Dieter
Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: That "other" investment forum is really retarded
Replies: 57
Views: 28156

Re: That "other" investment forum is really retarded

The BH forum is a great place with a lot of really smart people.  The super PP thread over there was a lot of fun to participate in (even though it was shut down through what seemed like heavy handed moderation and we had to start a new thread because another moderator didn't want to step in the to...
by Dieter
Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: What's happening to PERM?
Replies: 35
Views: 34645

Re: What's happening to PERM?

foglifter wrote:
ozzy wrote: PERM is up +2.11% today.  yee-ha!
Well, almost everything is up today. Gold is up over 2% and emerging markets are up almost 5%.
I am still happy PERM is up today.
by Dieter
Mon Jul 01, 2013 2:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 31243

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

Thanks for the update. I personally couldn't see going all in, but have definitely thought using moving averages as part of rebalances / adjusting allocations +/- 5ish percent...
by Dieter
Fri Jun 28, 2013 7:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP without gold
Replies: 3
Views: 2916

Re: PP without gold

How are you defining "stocks"? But and interesting question - I wonder if any has thoughts on REIT / TIPS / SCV / other options that some think do better in imflation than LCB / standard bonds...
by Dieter
Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why do you think the Permanent Portfolio is down at this time?
Replies: 13
Views: 9070

Re: Why do you think the Permanent Portfolio is down at this time?

Has there ever been a period where the three volatile assets have all had big gains over multi-year periods?  Stocks since 'po, Gold for 10+ years, LTT for 30ish? I started my PPish investment in Aug '12. All three seemed overvalued to me at the time, but I have sub-optimal foresight ability, so did...
by Dieter
Fri Jun 14, 2013 1:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh how it hurts to see no gains
Replies: 412
Views: 195677

Re: Oh how it hurts to see no gains

Honestly, I don't think folks' concern is about the absolute return but the performance relative to a typical Boglehead portfolio. (If stocks were down 40%, a boggleheads portfolio down 20%, and the PP down 2%....) I understood this going in, but it seems like folks are talking past each other. It a...
by Dieter
Wed Jun 12, 2013 3:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 12996

Re: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

Aka, the "Oh how I hate to see no gain" thread... :)
by Dieter
Wed Jun 12, 2013 2:38 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Wealth Distribution in America
Replies: 53
Views: 20864

Re: Wealth Distribution in America

I don't have the answers, but I think we'd be better of with a flatter (?more balanced?) income distribution: * SS / Medicare assumed they tax x% of total income: we are below that because of the unequal growth of top income * Some of the economic problems caused by lack of demand - lower incomes sp...
by Dieter
Wed Jun 12, 2013 2:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh how it hurts to see no gains
Replies: 412
Views: 195677

Re: Oh how it hurts to see no gains

I keep reminding myself its a long term play and not to confuse outcome with strategy.... Even though I'm more PP inspired (roughly half of ret monies) than true PP and more geared to prosperity with 40% tilted stock allocation, but starting in mid/late 2012 wasn't the best timing.... (Moved from a ...