Search found 945 matches

by KevinW
Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
Replies: 275
Views: 106746

Re: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains

MediumTex wrote: Why do that? 

Please stop.
+1
by KevinW
Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for International Investors
Replies: 6
Views: 4588

Re: Question for International Investors

It's a good idea but somehow I feel like there must be some kind of catch that makes investing through currency exchange rates different from investing domestically (in a different country). Otherwise I think a young Harry Browne would've bought a conservative stock/bond portfolio in Switzerland and...
by KevinW
Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
Replies: 13
Views: 6047

Re: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU

I like IAU better than GLD, too.

GLD came first so it has the benefit of greater notoriety and assets under management.
by KevinW
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 38632

Re: The Desert Portfolio

Another +1, if you squint the Desert Portfolio looks a lot like a 4x25 PP with some modest reallocation. If you squint another way, it also looks like Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund (VTINX) which is approximately 30/50/20 stocks/total bond/short term TIPS. The 10% gold and 20% ST TIPS alloca...
by KevinW
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BH portfolio in 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 4154

Re: BH portfolio in 401k

Agreed that those are poor options but you seem to be making the best of it. Based on Morningstar, MWTRX looks like the lesser of evils. JSNFX resembles a short term junk bond fund, while MWTRX is more moderate on quality and duration. The expense ratios are a wash. If it were me I'd probably do 40%...
by KevinW
Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Perspective on the current drawdown
Replies: 67
Views: 23291

Re: Perspective on the current drawdown

I like to view these drawdown's as the spring coiling tighter.  I think MT said that once, and it's true.  These drawdowns tend to be relatively short-lived and can be followed by large gains.  +1 And, the perennial question: if one were to quit the PP, what will they use instead? We have to actual...
by KevinW
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?
Replies: 25
Views: 14930

Re: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?

Duration and maturity are different. Yep.  It's definitely a little confusing.  This article helped me. http://www.investopedia.com/university/advancedbond/advancedbond5.asp That's a good resource. IMO, the word choices are terrible (duration and maturity sound like they should be synonyms), but th...
by KevinW
Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Only buy to rebalance, never sell?
Replies: 10
Views: 5186

Re: Only buy to rebalance, never sell?

This is similar to the "buy the lagging asset" strategy, which has been discussed previously. I'm not sure I understand the scenario here --- so the investor has a supply of cash that they could invest in the PP to simplify re-balancing, but would prefer not too? I don't know many people w...
by KevinW
Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:16 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?
Replies: 25
Views: 14930

Re: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?

Duration and maturity are different.
by KevinW
Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Best ETF for Bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 4722

Re: Best ETF for Bonds?

Isn't interest rate volatility precisely why we want to hold long term bonds in the PP? Yes. But the problem is that zeroes are significantly more volatile than a stock index fund or physical gold. So you'd need to do something like leverage stock and gold, or decrease the bond allocation, to compe...
by KevinW
Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If I go PP, do I still need a Cash Emergency Fund?
Replies: 26
Views: 18997

Re: If I go PP, do I still need a Cash Emergency Fund?

What ETF would you recommend as CASH for the taxable account/emergency fund? I am presently using VMLTX which is liquid and pays off dividends tax deferred.  All my other CASH is in BIL in tax advantaged accounts presently. Any thoughts on this? This has been discussed a lot already, so you may wan...
by KevinW
Thu Jul 02, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Best ETF for Bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 4722

Re: Best ETF for Bonds?

See the bond FAQ: https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133409/http://www.crawlingroad.com/blog/2009/02/09/permanent-portfolio-25-bond-allocation-faq/ In an orthodox PP, the bonds are 30 year coupon treasury bonds that are sold after 10 years. So the portfolio holds bonds with maturities 20-30 years. ...
by KevinW
Mon Jun 29, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Is there a broad stock market index fund that doesn't pay dividends?
Replies: 27
Views: 21006

Re: Is there a broad stock market index fund that doesn't pay dividends?

Like D1984 said, there are tax-managed funds. My bad, I should've been more precise about the distinction between minimizing capital gain events and minimizing dividends. Though, my understanding is that Vanguard has "deprecated" the tax-managed funds and is downplaying them, because as c...
by KevinW
Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:25 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: best etf for cash?
Replies: 14
Views: 20909

Re: best etf for cash?

The short answer: strictly speaking "no," because the only orthodox cash vehicle is T-bills or a T-bill-only money market fund; but many forum members seem comfortable with FDIC insured accounts because, barring a widespread bank run, they are very nearly as safe.
by KevinW
Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:06 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Is there a broad stock market index fund that doesn't pay dividends?
Replies: 27
Views: 21006

Re: Is there a broad stock market index fund that doesn't pay dividends?

Yes, Vanguard for one has a series of tax-managed funds including Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation Fund Admiral Shares (VTCLX). Google is your friend.  :)
by KevinW
Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Go full in or pay off mortgage?
Replies: 47
Views: 19887

Re: Go full in or pay off mortgage?

If I woke up in that situation I'd pay off the mortgage in full. There is a big difference, both mathematically and emotionally, between 2.8% guaranteed and 4-5% (I would actually say 3-5% for the PP, but whatever). Good luck finding zero-risk 2.8% after-tax returns anywhere else in the current inte...
by KevinW
Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
Replies: 117
Views: 40540

Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Where is it written in stone that this can't happen? It's not written in stone anywhere, but the prosperity-recession dichotomy is consistent with the Austrian business cycle theory ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory ) and the inflation-deflation dichotomy seems to be inf...
by KevinW
Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
Replies: 117
Views: 40540

Re: New PPer needs guidance.

I get frustrated when I read most 'tracking error' posts because the PP is not supposed to track some other index like the S&P 500 or a 60/40 Bogleheads setup. We should only be comparing it to itself. Only then can we have reasonable discussions about whether or not it is lagging, broken, outp...
by KevinW
Wed May 27, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on right-sizing the PP throughout the accumulation phase of life
Replies: 48
Views: 20173

Re: Thoughts on right-sizing the PP throughout the accumulation phase of life

It's just that people are far less risk tolerant in reality than they like to think they are, and I believe the average Joe is unlikely to stick with it and ever see anything close to average returns. +1 I started investing somewhere around 2005 and, being a rational and mathematically inclined per...
by KevinW
Thu May 14, 2015 12:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Japan PP
Replies: 8
Views: 5012

Re: Japan PP

There used to be an analysis here:
http://europeanpermanentportfolio.blogs ... folio.html
but apparently that blog has been removed.
by KevinW
Thu May 07, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 303542

Re: No where to hide

My wife and I each have a 4x25 PP.
by KevinW
Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 303542

Re: No where to hide

Guys, we've been through this. The PP is designed to achieve moderate returns, low volatility, and protect a portion of your wealth against a local economic collapse. It is not designed to achieve high returns, go up every single day, or track a stock-heavy index allocation. We're only 4 months into...
by KevinW
Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Going all in for VTI??
Replies: 14
Views: 11994

Re: Going all in for VTI??

My advice is to just go all-in, buy VTI, and move on. KISS.  :D
by KevinW
Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel
Replies: 43
Views: 22139

Re: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel

Asset Vanilla Portfolio Weight Vanilla Volatility Contribution to Vanilla Portfolio Risk Vanilla Risk Contribution Equity 25.00% 16.74% 0.18% 33.42% Debt 25.00% 12.08% 0.09% 16.65% Real 25.00% 20.61% 0.26% 49.93% Portfolio 75.00% 7.24% 0.52% 100.00% Diversify Ratio 56.90% Yes gold's volatility look...