Search found 730 matches

by D1984
Sun May 21, 2023 1:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 53
Views: 37719

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

Interesting. I was under the impression that Vanguard and Blackrock were the most egregious ESG proponents. If that grading table is accurate, this is indeed good news. Profits for shareholders should be their main focus, nothing else. Except that by (for example) not encouraging, say, a fossil fue...
by D1984
Tue May 16, 2023 8:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 53
Views: 37719

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

Interesting. I was under the impression that Vanguard and Blackrock were the most egregious ESG proponents. If that grading table is accurate, this is indeed good news. Profits for shareholders should be their main focus, nothing else. Except that by (for example) not encouraging, say, a fossil fue...
by D1984
Mon May 15, 2023 6:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: U.S. money supply suffers sharpest contraction since Great Depression
Replies: 14
Views: 4205

Re: U.S. money supply suffers sharpest contraction since Great Depression

The measure of trust for a random site is whether or not it's mentioned on Wikipedia? Not totally. More of a sign that if some negative information about it is on Wikipedia then one should probably use the web site with caution. So... Any site that doesn't have negative information about it on Wiki...
by D1984
Sun May 14, 2023 7:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times
Replies: 4
Views: 1797

Re: The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times

This blog is designed to record the investment journey of a UK based small investor. The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times https://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-all-weather-portfolio-for-uncertain.html "Could this is the ultimate set-and-forget portfolio?" "Further reading - The Pe...
by D1984
Thu May 11, 2023 1:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20444

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Having said that, there is an interesting asset class that seems to act almost like "risk-be-gone powder" that can be sprinkled on pretty much any portfolio and watch the maxDD and volatility go down without anything near the commensurate decrease in returns....unfortunately I at the moment only ha...
by D1984
Wed May 10, 2023 6:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20444

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Holy tracking error, Batman! 🙂 Well yeah but unlike the Larry Portfolio or even (dare one say it?) the PP you at least get some return to go with your tracking error. 😏 True enough....but in all fairness, neither the PP nor the Larry Portfolio (in its various incarnations with or without CCFs and/o...
by D1984
Wed May 10, 2023 3:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20444

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Holy tracking error, Batman! 🙂 Well yeah but unlike the Larry Portfolio or even (dare one say it?) the PP you at least get some return to go with your tracking error. 😏 True enough....but in all fairness, neither the PP nor the Larry Portfolio (in its various incarnations with or without CCFs and/o...
by D1984
Tue May 09, 2023 2:11 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 4581

Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

Interested in hearing opinions about SCV vs TSM investing for my children. Seems like over the long term SCV beats TSM by a long way. Wondering if there are any gotcha's with SCV . I'm planning on starting with one automated investment to keep things simple. Two come immediately to mind (although t...
by D1984
Sat May 06, 2023 8:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60302

Re: I'M OUT!

I don’t use the PP any longer but I still listen to podcasts like the ones from Resolve Asset Management who specialize in Risk Parity portfolios. They have convinced me that if you are going to do such a portfolio then you need a lot more diversification than the PP gives you. You definitely need ...
by D1984
Sat May 06, 2023 12:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold
Replies: 32
Views: 7844

Re: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold

The modern interpretation of the asset allocation that the Talmud advocated millennia ago has a alternative and perhaps more correct interpretation of one third in-hand, one third buried in the ground, one third in commerce. The context within which that was recorded was in regard to safety/securit...
by D1984
Tue May 02, 2023 4:25 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Permanent Broker
Replies: 20
Views: 7028

Re: Permanent Broker

Found one issue with the broker I chose, Fidelity charges $75 per VTSAX purchase. So...no automated purchases are going to happen. That could be a serious problem if I want to set VTSAX and forget it for the kids. I would be happy for an auto VTI purchase (would prefer that) but there is no option ...
by D1984
Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:22 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Non financial stock ETF
Replies: 1
Views: 1463

Re: Non financial stock ETF

dopplerdave wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:14 pm
Does anyone know of a broad market ETF that does NOT include financial companies (banks, insurance companies, etc.)?
ProShares S&P 500 ex-Financials ETF; the ticker symbol is SPXN.
by D1984
Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
Replies: 3
Views: 1678

Re: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach

https://allocatesmartly.com/predicting-us-treasury-returns/ This seems to solve the "what if long bond interest rates keep going up from here?" It trades once a month between IEF and T-Bills. Sometimes it's very cashy, sometimes it's very bondy. It's down like -2% from Aug 2020... B&H IEF is -16% S...
by D1984
Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: iShares GOVT as bond holding
Replies: 7
Views: 1331

Re: iShares GOVT as bond holding

Just playing around with backtests. BelangP's model doesn't look too bad. You would have to model it with a high dividend ETF that went through a period where bonds performed well though ... How far back would that need to be? DVY goes back to 2003; FDL (extended by using its underlying index back ...
by D1984
Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68412

Re: International stocks?

Is the idea behind the Permanent Portfolio and Golden Butterfly only needing domestic US stocks (for US investors) that the gold provides sufficient hedging against foreign exchange movements? Yes, that is the idea I have come to believe (at least for US investors). Tyler has an article on Portfoli...
by D1984
Thu Apr 20, 2023 9:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68412

Re: International stocks?

Currency purchasing power equilibrates over time. Why is the market consistently over-valuing international. Or is this too short a time frame. Total US vs total world See https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2008&firstMonth=7&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&c...
by D1984
Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:44 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Freeze Drying
Replies: 46
Views: 55921

Re: Home Freeze Drying

D1984 is gonna get freeze-dried IIRC CA is going to give free healthcare to illegals over 50 "Is gonna get freeze dried"? What the heck is that supposed to mean? Stop resorting to nonsense and insults and ad hominem and come up with some actual fact-based arguments if you want to be taken seriously...
by D1984
Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Freeze Drying
Replies: 46
Views: 55921

Re: Home Freeze Drying

At 20 amps / 110 volts and at my cost of electricity a total cost of $4.00 in electricity would be running it only 5 hours for that batch. But why should we care? California has just decreed that everyone gets unlimited electricity for $20 a month. Under the new plan, you’ll pay just $20 / month if...
by D1984
Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:13 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value fund without a large allocation to financials
Replies: 3
Views: 1747

Re: Small Cap Value fund without a large allocation to financials

Does anyone know of a good Small Cap Value fund without a large allocation to Small Cap "Value" financials. I want to make a purchase but Vanguards VBR, I believe, has over 20 percent in financials at the moment. A few that come to mind: Mutual funds: TNVCX 2.3% in financials HFMDX Around 3.5% in f...
by D1984
Tue Apr 11, 2023 1:24 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Active management - recent winners
Replies: 6
Views: 2241

Re: Active management - recent winners

Yes, there's a paywall. Would you mind telling us what particular funds were being featured? I'd be curious to look at their holdings. I don't have access to the article directly but by searching using some (non-Google) search engines I was able to find a copy of the article that was non-paywalled....
by D1984
Mon Apr 10, 2023 6:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 5
Views: 1645

Re: Moonshots

Three quick questions: One, is there any reason almost all of their strategies--including this one--seem to only go back to 1970 (i.e. only be backtested back to that date), or 1972, or 1973? I would be very suspicious of any backtest that went back past the early 1970s, as the nature of money was ...
by D1984
Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 5
Views: 1645

Re: Moonshots

Make this your moonshot. I have 10% of my portfolio going to this. Look at how low the drawdown is, backtested 50 years. Look at the Sharpe / Sortino ratios. https://allocatesmartly.com/bold-asset-allocation/ Warning - seriously not tax efficient, lots of trading per year, so only use it in an IRA ...
by D1984
Sat Apr 08, 2023 9:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24817

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

The only portfolio ever posted here that was arguably stupid was techno's 50%+ gold allocation Honestly, I didn't understand his portfolio back when he was posting here, but I get it now. He was far ahead of me in contempt for the US government political and financial leadership at places like the ...
by D1984
Sat Apr 08, 2023 4:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74674

Re: How much to save for retirement

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. That they have. But several things are different now. First, people are living longer while getting substantially less healthy. That means far more time spent n...
by D1984
Thu Apr 06, 2023 10:48 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: President Kennedy?
Replies: 2
Views: 902

Re: President Kennedy?

Ron Paul's discussion: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s filing papers to run for president yesterday has thrown a massive monkey wrench into the 2024 US Presidential campaign. Suddenly it looks like the seemingly-ailing President Biden will have a real challenger for the Democratic Party nomination. But ho...