MachineGhost wrote: And ETF's that focus on value don't focus on true value just buying all the dreck on the bottom of the barrel which are now all overpriced.

What's the new value? Shareholder yield?

Xan wrote: It also seems that you don't know what you believe (despite believing it very strongly) about bucket systems.  First they don't work, they're an illusion, they do nothing but kill returns.  And now suddenly you need TWO LAYERS of buckets!

It's really more of a two pail system.

no one knows what to expect this  time around . these are uncharted times with things right now so i would trust nothing but real time monitoring . this time is different rarely works . in the end all ends okay and if  someone thinks other wise and is always  going  to think this time is different ...

WiseOne wrote: I like the concept of this thread, so here's a not terribly original contribution, though one of my favorites:  The Chicken Cycle.

Whoah, this is great. Thanks WiseOne!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... se-anymore

I couldn't really make much sense of this.

Desert wrote: And yes, I've been trying not to comment on Trump, because I see nothing compelling about him.  But I can't help it; he's just so loud, and so ridiculous.  The fact that a couple of my favorite posters on this forum like him is a huge surprise to me.

I feel the same way.

Legalizing pot would help this without a corresponding downside of any significance. Pot has plenty of downsides despite popular opinion. Such as what? Reduced cognitive function[1], reduced motivation [2], and then you can look forward to anxiety, depression, and insomnia when you try to quit [3] ...

(The Buddha, of course, said that ALL of life is suffering, but it's possible that he just wasn't hanging out with the right people). Like Ikkyu? Calling My Hand Mori's Hand My hand, how it resembles Mori's hand. I believe the lady is the master of loveplay; If I get ill, she can cure the jeweled s...

Libertarian666 wrote: Legalizing pot would help this without a corresponding downside of any significance.

Pot has plenty of downsides despite popular opinion.

Yeah, I've seen its performance. That's why I asked you to clarify because I don't see anything that shows that his use of downside risk management failed. Care to elaborate?

What do you think about his ETFs? http://www.cambriafunds.com/etfs.aspx None of them use downside risk management, except the new Value and Momentum combo not listed.  His application of it to 50 assets or so in GTAA didn't work and he got fired or left. Why do you say downside risk management didn...

ochotona wrote: My wife accuses me of having a man-crush on Mebane

What do you think about his ETFs?

http://www.cambriafunds.com/etfs.aspx

I really like this soup and make it a couple times a month:

http://earlyretirementextreme.com/cooki ... han-4.html

Oh man, this thread made my Monday. Thanks all. I'll throw my hat in the ring:

MJist:

Your water allocation is too high and will dilute your returns.

If interest rates go up, the value of the bond will go down... immediately! Yes, you can lose lots of money with bonds. Interest rates started declining in 1980, and stopped going down (for the time being) on January 30, 2015. We capped a spectacular 35 year long bull market in long-term bonds, the...

dualstow wrote: You're tiresome, mathjak. I think I'll give up on this forum for awhile.

The ignore list feature has made my experience here much more pleasant.

I sometimes feel the same way about the PP. In light of the old saying, "diversification is the only free lunch", sometimes I feel like we're leaving some food on the table in the form of international assets, real estate, commodities, etc. Ivy-5 has US stocks, ex-US stocks, REITs, bonds,...

For the record, I think the 60/40 portfolio is a fine choice.  I just find the myopic focus on the S&P500 and total bond market to be pretty darn boring and shortsighted.  The investing world is a lot more interesting than that, and other portfolios may have different results. I sometimes feel ...

mathjak107 wrote: to date i know of no academic study that proves anyone can actually time these things enough to make a difference over the long haul .

do you ?

Here is a paper that has been updated to include out of sample data:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... _id=962461

What premise is he challenging here? That we should be more concerned about short term movements within arbitrarily defined timelines? Hes challenging that downside risk management works. You don't do that by saying, "Hey look, your strategy missed out on last month's gains." You know tha...

That's how I know this guy is trolling. You can tell that he's relatively intelligent, so he clearly knows that pointing out that a strategy is having a bad day doesn't mean anything. However, he does it anyway because he's trying to push buttons. No, he's getting us to challenge our premises in th...

Get used to inane comments like "It's a stock picker's market" or recency bias & mining the past? I don't think so. I got that out of my system in the early aughts aka early 2000s. (emphasis added) That's how I know this guy is trolling. You can tell that he's relatively intelligent, ...

The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds. US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play. phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ?  Can we collectively decide to stop feeding the tr...

after thought -- it works as a pretty authentic sounding zen koan if you replace the word Me with the word zen  I prefer your first version. This came to mind (emphasis added): CASE 8. DAITSU CHISHO BUDDHA A monk asked Seijo, "Daitsu Chisho Buddha did zazen (meditated) for ten kalpas in a Medi...

so far the models i post every friday are nicely positive .  i will update my thread tomorrow as to any changes and the ending numbers . funds like fidelity contra and blue chip growth are up about 7- 8% ytd  as of last night .  intermediate term and short term bond funds are  still up 1 to 2 % Wro...