Search found 2336 matches

by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29680

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

It was almost exactly two months ago that tomfoolery was “sounding the alarm” in a thread called ‘The (PP) May Be About to Break’. The main culprit: long-term treasuries. But someone, somewhere has been sounding the alarm since the beginning. If it does eventually “break”, the person with the right...
by AdamA
Tue May 05, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29680

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

To add to what everyone else is saying... oil is by far the biggest weight You're not going to see any "inflation" in the official data until oil starts to go up. Very good point. These types of predications have a way of tricking everyone. Even though it seems like a no-brainer that we'd have infl...
by AdamA
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29680

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

But they [the Fed] really only have any control over the short end of the curve. Didn’t the Fed start purchasing longer-term Treasuries (among other types of securities) in March? If they can purchase Treasuries of any duration, that means they can influence all parts of the yield curve, doesn’t it...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29680

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

If the Fed's incentive to fight inflation no longer exists, why would they ever let Treasury rates rise significantly? There would be no benefit to the government. But they really only have any control over the short end of the curve. I agree that at some point there may be less demand, but I'm not...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29680

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

Hard to have inflation with such a high unemployment rate, I think. Well that is what many people believe. But I am pretty sure they are wrong. We already have had a big inflation in food prices. But prices going up due to issues of supply and demand is different than prices going up due to inflati...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29680

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

The price of food consumed at home, however, was up 0.5% from February. That was on top of a 0.5% increase the prior month. The report states: "The index for dairy and related products increased 3.7 percent over the last year. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 2.3 percent, with the ...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 70
Views: 29680

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

pmward wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:11 am
Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them???
No.
by AdamA
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 11149

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

For those of who have never prior seen this: Efficient Frontier William J. Bernstein Wild about Harry http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm I read that post 10 years ago prior to investing in the PP. It's a great post because it looks at the PP through the lens of modern portfolio th...
by AdamA
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Vanguard and Fidelity Treasury MM funds closed to new investors
Replies: 16
Views: 7152

Re: Vanguard and Fidelity Treasury MM funds closed to new investors

What's the old saw about cash being king? Read through this article to see the scale of the inflows they've been dealing with at Vanguard alone. Pretty breathtaking. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-latest-close-money-fund-204744970.html I note that that last time Vanguard closed their Treas...
by AdamA
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 36431

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

It was only when I embarked on my forum archeology, I then discovered that Tex was Craig's equal. And, actually, upon joining this forum, it was Tex to whom I sent my first private message, thanking him for the book. At that time, I was unaware that he'd basically stopped participating. Vinny When ...
by AdamA
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: EE Bonds = 3.5% 20-Year Treasury
Replies: 13
Views: 5581

Re: EE Bonds = 3.5% 20-Year Treasury

If you hold EE bonds for 20 years they are guaranteed to double.

So they have a guaranteed rate of 3.5% (if held that long).

Too bad you can only buy $10K/year.
by AdamA
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: EE Bonds = 3.5% 20-Year Treasury
Replies: 13
Views: 5581

Re: EE Bonds = 3.5% 20-Year Treasury

If you hold EE bonds for 20 years they are guaranteed to double.

So they have a guaranteed rate of 3.5% (if held that long).
by AdamA
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Online Depository Program
Replies: 33
Views: 22483

Re: Perth Mint Online Depository Program

I think it's all still accessible, but I did get this confusing email from the Perth Mint a few days ago. There’s no doubt COVID-19 is having a huge impact on us all. At The Perth Mint, our focus is on the health and wellbeing of our staff as well as the continued service to our customers throughout...
by AdamA
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: YouTube: Harry Browne's The Money Show
Replies: 13
Views: 6560

Re: YouTube: Harry Browne's The Money Show

I sent a message to Harry Browne's wife and she gave me permission to upload his money show to YouTube. I followed the infamous Boglehead thread, the second part and then found myself here at this forum. His radio show was linked several times in the thread but was always a dead link, I was able to...
by AdamA
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trying to make sense of PRPFX performance
Replies: 10
Views: 4697

Re: Trying to make sense of PRPFX performance

That seems pretty awful, so did the dividends really account for a 10% gain over that timeframe? Or do you think I may have made a mistake somewhere in tracking my account balances? It paid out pretty steep dividends in 2013 - 2015, so it's probably close to accurate. It's hard to track PRPFX. I'd ...
by AdamA
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My first bear market and I'm sleeping tight
Replies: 9
Views: 3480

Re: My first bear market and I'm sleeping tight

Now to be clear, I am definitely worried about whether my current client will retain my services. It's a heads-or-tails situation whether they will. But in the meantime, due to the huge cash portion in the PP and the relatively limited losses, I slept like a baby . The cash position in the PP is ge...
by AdamA
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs. real gold bugs
Replies: 26
Views: 8985

Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:52 pm
Great thread.
I read about 3 posts and thanked God I found Craig's podcast 10 years ago.
by AdamA
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stay cool...
Replies: 39
Views: 18672

Re: Stay cool...

Thanks for the timely and thoughtful post Craig! It's also an opportune moment to thank you for introducing me to the Permanent Portfolio and Harry Browne many years ago on that epic thread over on the Bogleheads forum. Your writing has been a remains a light in the darkness and has saved me from m...
by AdamA
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: MCD
Replies: 24
Views: 10803

Re: MCD

Steve Easterbrook’s out. He was a wonderful CEO. His relationship with an employee was consensual, but it violated company policy, so he’s fired. Now I have to “fire” McDonald’s from my portfolio. Too bad, it was among my favorite stocks. 'Buy into a business that's doing so well an idiot could run...
by AdamA
Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What is your current portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 27358

Re: What is your current portfolio?

Regular PP for 9 peaceful years.
by AdamA
Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Books?
Replies: 133
Views: 51232

Re: Books?

Cherry Nico Walker
Above the Line Urban Meyer
Catch and Kill Ronan Farrow
by AdamA
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 95
Views: 63737

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

I am looking at where each of the three investments currently are and it seems that two - stock and bonds - are at the all time highs while gold is near an all-time high. This certainly goes counter to buy high / sell low. If you search the term "all time high" on this forum, you'll get 17 pages of...
by AdamA
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 42
Views: 35735

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Thanks!

I still lurk regularly. Just don't have much to add, so not a big poster these days.
by AdamA
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 42
Views: 35735

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

What's the startup?
by AdamA
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 42
Views: 35735

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Wow! A post from Craig. This is better than the time Satoshi Nakamoto emailed me!