Search found 430 matches

by seajay
Tue Aug 15, 2023 4:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold peg
Replies: 13
Views: 17380

Gold peg

Successive Fed chairs each generally appreciated that if the dollar didn't somewhat align with gold that bad things tend to happen. But where periodic revisions of the peg rate are also required. Each of the historic revisions have largely been driven by Treasury actions, not the Fed (who in some ca...
by seajay
Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 30018

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

While TIPS bonds aren't often discussed here they've certainly been a hot topic of late on mainstream forums like Bogleheads and sites such as Morningstar - in part because for the first time in many years it's possible to construct a ladder of them yielding a 4%+ inflation-adjusted safe withdrawal...
by seajay
Sun Aug 13, 2023 2:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 30018

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

Also, don't we really only have a shade over 3 totally independent 30 year cycles? 3 is a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny sample. In more extreme cases I extend mine out to around 11. US (from 1871), UK (from 1896), Japan (since 1972). Spans a broader range of events such as decline of the Pound as the pred...
by seajay
Sat Aug 12, 2023 3:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 30018

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

To put some figures out there, over 120+ years I estimate that a PP sustained a 30 year 4% SWR in all but 1.5% of cases, and where they failed it still got to support most of 30 years. If for instance the worst case only supported 25 years in 1.5% of cases, then likely that was still better than the...
by seajay
Sat Aug 12, 2023 2:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 30018

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

Don't forget that with a 4% 30 year SWR TIPS ladder that assumes all is spent, no residual. For other asset allocations 4% 30 year SWR was around the worst case outcome, left nothing remaining ... but in the more usual/average case tended to leave a very decent residual amount remaining, in some cas...
by seajay
Sat Aug 12, 2023 1:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

But is vulnerable to where states with massive data centers might hack a central software server to roll out a virus/bug/feature whereby other states systems are impeded. Maybe something like where a later version of the software contains a 'bug' that is commonly rolled out, but ignored by the atta...
by seajay
Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 30018

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

Here in the UK our Index Linked Gilts, similar to TIPS have price appreciation (inflation element) tax exempt, coupon interest is however taxable, but where over recent years coupon interest is very low, near insignificant tax. A good option for building up a compliment to other sources of income su...
by seajay
Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:27 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

But is vulnerable to where states with massive data centers might hack a central software server to roll out a virus/bug/feature whereby other states systems are impeded. Maybe something like where a later version of the software contains a 'bug' that is commonly rolled out, but ignored by the atta...
by seajay
Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:22 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659750

Re: The GOLD scream room

Long term... I bought gold 2015-2018 at a good price, but I'm giving it until 2030, if no serious step above the past ATHs by then I'm out. Fifteen years is long enough. It will be time for digitization, simplification and streamlining for my heirs and future caregivers to take precedence. It doesn...
by seajay
Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659750

Re: The GOLD scream room

Long term... I bought gold 2015-2018 at a good price, but I'm giving it until 2030, if no serious step above the past ATHs by then I'm out. Fifteen years is long enough. It will be time for digitization, simplification and streamlining for my heirs and future caregivers to take precedence. It doesn...
by seajay
Tue Aug 08, 2023 5:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659750

Re: The GOLD scream room

In nominal dollar terms the price of gold stepped up during the 1970's, 1980/1990 were a plateau, 2000's were a step (dot com bubble, financial crisis), 2010's were a plateau, excepting a relatively small 2020 step (Covid) as part of that. A nice feature with that is if you blend stocks with gold t...
by seajay
Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

There is no substitute for gold. It is a physical (yet compact!), indestructible, decentralized bearer instrument of limited supply. Crypto and public (albeit encrypted) ledger will at some point hit a wall where it becomes all too obvious that ledgers are best kept private, or otherwise are at ris...
by seajay
Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659750

Re: The GOLD scream room

So when does gold catch a bid? Dow is down -321 right now, 10 year interest rates are down, US Dollar is down, why is gold also down? You didn't go to the meeting? :-) Of course the current excuse is gold is being sold to cover the margin calls of the other holdings or some such like that. It will ...
by seajay
Thu Aug 03, 2023 12:13 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

Maybe a PP back then might have been 50% gold/silver coins (both the PP cash and gold elements), 25% F&C ... similar to 25% stock, 25% Consoles (long dated treasury like). 0% inflation, relatively consistent 0% real (gold/cash), 5% from F&C, 3% from Consoles, 2% total portfolio real. Which for a 60 ...
by seajay
Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:38 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

In short, assuming that a saver in the 1879-1934 era could earn anything approaching a safe 5% return was--except for a brief period in the late 1910s and early 1920s--a fantasy; in order to have the chance of earning 5% or more he/she had to either take bond market risk, stock market risk, commodi...
by seajay
Mon Jul 31, 2023 5:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: European investor settling on golden butterfly
Replies: 9
Views: 1873

Re: European investor settling on golden butterfly

I'm also somewhat worried about the ishares and SPDR etfs in the sense that they include the UK and Switzerland which don't use the Euro. This is counter the principles outlined in the permanent portfolio book I believe? There are EU countries that also haven't adopted the Euro. The Eurozone/Euro m...
by seajay
Thu Jul 27, 2023 9:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

Over Tuesday / Wednesday I read William Bernstein's excellent new book. I am now on my second reading, doing so in a studying fashion. Just moments ago I read what he had to say about gold / silver. "Unlike crude oil or soybeans, you can store a reasonable amount of gold, but as we just saw, it has...
by seajay
Thu Jul 27, 2023 3:13 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
by seajay
Thu Jul 27, 2023 2:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
by seajay
Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:17 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81745

Re: Gold Substitutes

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
by seajay
Fri Jul 21, 2023 11:34 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 230
Views: 111595

Re: BTC in the PP

Thanks Jack. I see how you can pay in cash so as to acquire Btc anonymously, but that you need to record your email, phone number etc. to open a Bisq account, so still not like buying a gold coin in cash anonymously that's then off radar and in your own hands, no counter party risk. And where chance...
by seajay
Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 230
Views: 111595

Re: BTC in the PP

I use Bisq. It is a decentralized, peer-to-peer exchange. There are different payment methods, but I choose to send USPS money orders to strangers in exchange for Bitcoin. They never know my name or address, and neither does the post office since I pay in cash. I've made maybe 20-30 purchases like ...
by seajay
Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1162
Views: 832084

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

A fairly bleak picture that you present! He's a bully . . . From the perspective of the average working-class person in Russia, your statement above about bullies sounds a lot like the USA's hubristic behavior since the end of the cold war when they had promised that NATO wouldn't move one inch eas...
by seajay
Tue Jul 18, 2023 7:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95659

Re: PP Mistakes

Grandpa said stocks were too risky. Different paradigm. Gold used to be money, gold, silver, copper coins worth their weight. Gold being finite and inflation was low, broadly 0% across centuries. Gold (money) deposited into savings accounts earned interest, more gold, that was comparable to a real ...
by seajay
Tue Jul 04, 2023 5:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETF Placement
Replies: 9
Views: 3523

Re: Gold ETF Placement

Sell the coins that you bought yesterday for cash, that when you got home the other half said you couldn't keep.