Search found 211 matches
- Tue Mar 20, 2012 10:52 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Illogical Investing Thoughts You Hold
- Replies: 21
- Views: 10065
Re: Illogical Investing Thoughts You Hold
Ever since the new PERM etf came out - PP has not done so well - i know it will - but they say when an etf comes out that tries to catch a "fade" of investing - it marks a top for the fade. I know it is illogical to think this way with PP but it still creeps into my thoughts. I have yet t...
- Tue Mar 20, 2012 8:44 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP utilizing futures market
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3983
Re: PP utilizing futures market
I guess futures might be a viable route if you want a super-leveraged PP.. you might need to long/short GLD, SPY, and TLT to tweak the weights whenever rebalancing time comes.
- Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:44 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: SPY Pricing Discrepancy
- Replies: 2
- Views: 2763
Re: SPY Pricing Discrepancy
I smell a dividend..
- Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:44 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Leverage a dollar position?
- Replies: 22
- Views: 10922
Re: Leverage a dollar position?
Right now, I play the leveraged portion of my PP as a short to medium term trade.. (about 20-50% of my equity, can consider this as my Variable Portfolio.) I track the PP performance in Excel and if it's down from the all-time highs by a certain amount, then I'll add in a leveraged portion. Btw, ...
- Thu Feb 09, 2012 12:35 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Recommended Books?
- Replies: 38
- Views: 17942
Re: Recommended Books?
The 5 Lessons a Millionaire Taught Me About Life and Wealth by Richard Paul Evans. He goes over some simple yet often overlooked ideas about building wealth. His philosophies complement nicely with Harry Browne's philosophies. You learn Evans' ideas about cutting back on spending , looking for opp...
- Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: CFA Education - Is Knowledge Dangerous for the PP?
- Replies: 33
- Views: 15205
Re: CFA Education - Is Knowledge Dangerous for the PP?
I posted about the PP on a CFA forum for opinions and it's been met with ridicule (so far).. Ironically, the desire to better understand the PP rekindled my desire to pursue this designation and prompted me to sign up to retake it June this year (I failed level 1 exam back in 2010).. Are they ridic...
- Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:02 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: CFA Education - Is Knowledge Dangerous for the PP?
- Replies: 33
- Views: 15205
Re: CFA Education - Is Knowledge Dangerous for the PP?
I posted about the PP on a CFA forum for opinions and it's been met with ridicule (so far)..
Ironically, the desire to better understand the PP rekindled my desire to pursue this designation and prompted me to sign up to retake it June this year (I failed level 1 exam back in 2010)..
Ironically, the desire to better understand the PP rekindled my desire to pursue this designation and prompted me to sign up to retake it June this year (I failed level 1 exam back in 2010)..
- Sun Dec 18, 2011 12:32 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Physical gold or ETF for my IRA?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 20635
Re: Physical gold or ETF for my IRA?
If your only option with physical gold is to buy it and store it at home: forget it. Buy GLD instead. You're more likely to lose your physical gold through theft than losing your GLD investment through its collapse. If you can afford the overhead of a vault (preferably in Switzerland), then it may...
- Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:28 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 25% allocation to CASH is too simplistic and not necessarily a rule to follow
- Replies: 13
- Views: 8902
Re: 25% allocation to CASH is too simplistic and not necessarily a rule to follow
It's not 25% "Cash" but "Cash AND cash-like instruments".. i.e. Cash, CDs, money market funds, short-term bonds, Dollar index, etc.
- Mon Dec 05, 2011 11:41 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: CFA Education - Is Knowledge Dangerous for the PP?
- Replies: 33
- Views: 15205
Re: CFA Education - Is Knowledge Dangerous for the PP?
I guess if you have a lot of free time and you'd like to start your own fund (with clients) in the future this may be a suitable route. Use the CFA designation to attract clients then just rebalance once in a blue moon. Unfortunately, it's a catch 22.. you'll need the CFA to attract clients to your...
- Tue Nov 29, 2011 9:08 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
- Replies: 15
- Views: 8093
"5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45474748
I'm confident PP might see better returns but still likely in for a disappointment in the coming years..
I'm confident PP might see better returns but still likely in for a disappointment in the coming years..
- Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Where's the money going?
- Replies: 16
- Views: 6471
Re: Where's the money going?
Look at UUP or the dollar index during the period when the Permanent Portfolio assets all declined in tandem..
- Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:38 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 337528
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Super interesting! Thanks once again for the update. I've also been tracking a "Leveraged PP" and a "Leveraged Super PP" (3x33 of the leveraged ETFs, discarding cash.) I established both portfolios on January 25, 2011. The "Leveraged PP" (4x25) has so far returned 14...
- Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:32 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 13343
Re: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
Another idea to keep in mind is that leverage is normally an expression of maximum optimism in a certain approach to investing. We know from history that periods of maximum optimism are often followed by periods of sub-par performance. If too many people start talking about using leverage with the...
- Fri Nov 25, 2011 9:31 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 13343
Re: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
What is the tracking error like for UUP at those critical moments when you need it most? It is all very well having great tracking acuracy for the 99.9% of the time when it is just a drag on the portfolio. What matters is the lack of tracking error for the darkest hour when the margin calls come in...
- Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:08 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 13343
Re: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
I suppose the formula has inbuilt assumptions about how to extrapolate what the chances are of a meltdown event given the standard deviation. Its well documented that supposed "three sigma events" actually happen quite often in real markets. The distributions are way off a normal distrib...
- Thu Nov 24, 2011 12:05 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 13343
Re: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
Since Harry Browne didn't like leverage, is this a crazy idea? I probably won't go 8x leverage.. I'm already at 3x leverage and up about 10-15% on the year after starting the permanent portfolio in August 2011. The fastest way I've seen people lose everything they have in investing is by using le...
- Wed Nov 23, 2011 8:29 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 13343
Re: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
I'm not really investing using "Permanent Portfolio" as my core strategy.. just stealing some ideas from PP...MediumTex wrote: I would stay away from leverage with the PP.
Maybe treat the leveraged portion of your PP as your VP.
- Wed Nov 23, 2011 5:57 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 13343
Quantitative Trading:Leveraging the Permanent Portfolio using the Kelly Formula?
I'm studying Quant Trading and the idea of using the Kelly Criteria to determine how much to leverage a portfolio. (See: http://epchan.blogspot.com/2006/10/how-much-leverage-should-you-use.html ) This formula calculates the most optimal amount of leverage for a portfolio to grow steadily.. I'll cu...