Search found 52 matches

by jswinner
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What is your prediction for the future of the forum?
Replies: 56
Views: 14463

Re: What is your prediction for the future of the forum?

Hitch a VP to it of all FAANG, or BC or whatever floats your boat. Choose correctly you make some money. Choose poorly, you end up still having some money. And likely still better off compared to bringing in professional help.
by jswinner
Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:15 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Should Single Family Home Rentals be Legal?
Replies: 8
Views: 2781

Re: Should Single Family Home Rentals be Legal?

pp4me wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:20 pm
I Shrugged wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:30 pm Tom I think you are too focused on financial optimization of your life.
How can anyone possibly tell what Tomfoolery is focused on?
And he has stated holding positions in AMH. ???
by jswinner
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 452874

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Should I be surprised? https://www.barnhardt.biz/2021/05/28/top-tier-medical-journal-the-lancet-blows-lid-off-of-vaccine-lie-pfizers-efficacy-rate-0-84-as-in-less-than-1-as-in-statistically-zero-in-other-words-these-injections/ Haven't had time to verify this report. I'm certain that the enthusiast...
by jswinner
Thu May 27, 2021 2:54 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Negative 1 and 3 Month Treasury Rates
Replies: 49
Views: 22400

Re: Negative 1 and 3 Month Treasury Rates

This weeks 8 week bill was filled at $99.9992. FIDO has basically stopped autoroll I think because when you purchase, you are required to click through a bunch of negative yield disclaimers. So I just purchase these weekly with manual entries.. So far, none have actually gone negative.
by jswinner
Thu May 20, 2021 8:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 452874

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

The reported data is from the CDC: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html This study: Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Children Aged <18 Years Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 — COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1–July 25, 2020 reported just over 38% with know underly...
by jswinner
Wed May 19, 2021 8:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 452874

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

CDC now reports almost 3 million cases in ages 0-19 . There have been 30,000 hospitalizations in that age group. Though not "common", I would not define that as "extremely rare" either. https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/COVID-19-Case-Surveillance-Public-Use-Data/vbim-akqf/d...
by jswinner
Wed May 19, 2021 7:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 452874

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

CDC now reports almost 3 million cases in ages 0-19 . There have been 30,000 hospitalizations in that age group. Though not "common", I would not define that as "extremely rare" either. https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/COVID-19-Case-Surveillance-Public-Use-Data/vbim-akqf/data
by jswinner
Sun May 16, 2021 11:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 29492

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

diamond-hand.jpg
diamond-hand.jpg (53.44 KiB) Viewed 6437 times
by jswinner
Thu May 13, 2021 9:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 29492

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

FWIW The gospel is to sell at 20 years remaining. I keep staring into Tyler's chart: https://i0.wp.com/portfoliocharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/convexity-bond-fund-interest-rate-sensitivity-total-return.jpg?resize=836%2C628&ssl=1 convexity-bond-fund-interest-rate-sensitivity-total-return.j...
by jswinner
Wed May 12, 2021 9:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 452874

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Is this based on symptomatic cases, or a meaningless PCR test? Thank you The CDC case reporting form provides number of case classification and identification categories. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/pui-form.pdf. Hey lets take a deep dive into the data.....Haha, we know that...
by jswinner
Tue May 11, 2021 8:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 29492

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

You always have to look at it as today and into the future. Looking back at last August doesn't mean anything now. The rate is where it's at today, because half the market thinks it can go up tomorrow and half the market thinks it can go down tomorrow. By "half the market" I mean half of ...
by jswinner
Tue May 11, 2021 7:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 452874

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Okay, so now the FDA is permitting the injection for a population which is unaffected by the China flu... 12 to 15 year olds. A solution in search of a problem. Is there anything which, for the enthusiasts of the regime, which may cause you to question the motives of your overlords? Screenshot from...
by jswinner
Mon May 03, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 10318

Re: Dragon Portfolio

Some random internet dude (https://www.investwithfire.com/dragon-portfolio-protect-your-wealth/) suggested this allocation: Dragon Portfolio 24% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) 18% Long-Term Government Bonds – via the iShares Barclays 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) 21% Long Volatility – ...
by jswinner
Sun May 02, 2021 5:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 20580

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

"Assuming I would have not panicked in 2001 and 2008." *Most* are not capable of sitting idling buy while their future evaporates, even if you have plenty of time to recover. In fact we all would have unimaginable wealth had we gone yolo into stocks at the bottom(s). But here we all are n...
by jswinner
Sun May 02, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 10318

Re: Dragon Portfolio

Cole seems to be one of the few pointing out the risk that institutional pension funds have created with an over-reliance on equities. Average is now almost 70%. Many were in very poor shape leading into the pandemic. Here is a decent interview regarding the national debt too: https://www.readtangle...
by jswinner
Sun May 02, 2021 12:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 80
Views: 20580

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

"Assuming I would have not panicked in 2001 and 2008." *Most* are not capable of sitting idling buy while their future evaporates, even if you have plenty of time to recover. In fact we all would have unimaginable wealth had we gone yolo into stocks at the bottom(s). But here we all are no...
by jswinner
Sat May 01, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 10318

Re: Dragon Portfolio

Some random internet dude (https://www.investwithfire.com/dragon-portfolio-protect-your-wealth/) suggested this allocation: Dragon Portfolio 24% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) 18% Long-Term Government Bonds – via the iShares Barclays 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) 21% Long Volatility – (...
by jswinner
Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 22
Views: 6633

Re: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

So the question was about the institutional risk. I’m going to say that VG and Fido are too big to fail. If something takes one out, you will be relying on physical gold, silver, and crypto. Yes, there would be way more to worry about should either fail. I was split between Fidelity and ML, but I m...
by jswinner
Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 10318

Dragon Portfolio

Bit of a PP in disguise here

How to Build a Portfolio That Outperforms For a Century Podcast: https://lnns.co/Nzwk54bvCIy

Domestic Equity (24%)
Fixed Income/Bonds (18%)
Active Long Volatility (21%)
Commodity Trend Following (18%)
Physical Gold (19%).3
by jswinner
Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:56 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash
Replies: 39
Views: 13715

Re: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash

Just checked out the fixed income options at Fidelity and there's a AAA six-month corporate bond available with a yield of -1.09%! Das ist ja mit der LANDWIRTSCHAFTLICHE RENTENBANK! Might just nix all the good advice I get here and load up on these babies just to be on the safe side. O0 Good thing ...
by jswinner
Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:46 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash
Replies: 39
Views: 13715

Re: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash

Yes, recently, I have set some manual auction buys with AR off for now. Can you set your CORE to the FDIC Bank sweep? I have kept a rolling short term cash ladder as a proxy for a MM account. Recent 4 and 8 week offerings have been posted with negative yields, and that may be the reason the auto rol...
by jswinner
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: LTT and SP500 funds at Fidelity?
Replies: 7
Views: 2570

Re: LTT and SP500 funds at Fidelity?

I have not had issues selling less than 10k of bonds at Fidelity entering the details on the web form
by jswinner
Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 40 Years since the death of equities
Replies: 4
Views: 4771

40 Years since the death of equities

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f-equities
and 30 year treasuries peaked in August/September 1981 @ 15.84%
by jswinner
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Farmland
Replies: 7
Views: 6066

Re: Farmland

Meb Faber's latest podcast had David Gladstone, owner of the Gladstone farmland REIT, symbol LAND. https://player.fm/series/1058800/213581629 I have been looking for a way to invest in farmland as a passive investor. I think I found it. LAND pays a sizable dividend as well, 4.6%. The ratio of LAND ...