Treasuries benefit from a rising dollar.  Since dividends are paid in dollars, there is increased demand from a strong reliable dividend generator like long-term treasuries. 

Equities are another story, they could go either way.

Hmm, his portfolio sounds vaguely familiar 

Ya, there is no way I could stomach that many treasuries either.  It sounds similar to Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio  http://fmdcapital.com/can-handle-weather-portfolio/

The analysis uses VGPMX for the Gold portion of the PP allocation. Where's the garbage can? PortfolioVisualizer.com lists its data souces here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/faq#dataSources For Gold they use KITCO returns 1972-2004, and GLD from 2004-2014.  Thats pretty accurate in my opinion.

You are exactly correct Mark. Thats always been my observation too.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102729377

Yikes!  Scary.

For those interested, here's a good 30min video on how the ecomony works, according to Ray Dalio:

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0

And then the PP has a day like today, and all is right with the world... ;D Just kidding, of course...have a nice weekend everyone.  It is refreshing to have found this forum last year, with calm, rational, understandable people! Yup, couldn't ask for a better day for the PP :-)  I agree this forum...

Designing a portfolio to meet the four conditions was not made up by Harry Browne, either. PP is not a cult or religion. Big commercial providers are in this space, too. Click here to see Compass diagram . Ochotona - One important difference is the PP is passive (e.g. permanent).  The Schwab Windha...

FYI - a relevent article to this discussion:  A Different View of Double-Leveraged ETFs. "The authors go on to note that if a hypothetical double-leveraged broad market U.S. equity was held from 1951 through 2014, that make believe ETF would have generated returns 1.67 times better than its non...

ochotona wrote: I think reduced gold is prudent also. I like 15%, but 20% is more attractive to me than 25%, certainly.

I use 15% for gold too.

"More than half of Americans, 52 percent, are currently not investing in the stock market—either by buying individual stocks or mutual funds, or through a retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a new Bankrate.com survey." "A study from the Federal Reserve found that ...

internationalcanuck, Suggestion – Instead of replacing the 3x gold ETF with a 2x, why not just reduce the 3x gold allocation?  For example, my backtesting shows this has been a good mix for long-term stability: 38% UPRO 38% TMF 24% UGLD What I do is dollar-cost-average in every month.  This smooths ...

Sorry to hear, stay strong bro.

Hi Fish, I’ve updated my JuicyP website, it’s all ETFs now.  I dollar cost average in monthly so I’m only adding to the ETFs and will sell my remaining VWINX at year-end rebalance time.  Yes my JuicyP outperforms the pure PP (that’s the point), but it’s not really a fair comparison because my portfo...

PS,

For free backtesting of various ETFs and/or mutual funds combination these 2 tools are the best: 

http://ezbacktest.blogspot.com

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

I agree Barrett.  I’ll be buying TLT as it goes down for sure.  At Fidelity TLT is commission free, so I can place Buy-Limit orders for the smallest quantity (1 share).  This is very nice since I’m in the accumulation phase of my PP and constantly adding to it.  It lets me buy the dips.

Hi D1984, The PP did just fine during 1977-1981. Also, let’s not forget the perceived flight to safety that LT US bonds represent.  For example, right you need to pay the German govt to hold their bonds (negative interest rates).  And you know what, people are paying it!  People will pay to keep the...

One more thought.  Forgive me for sounding too cocky here, but I don’t think rising interests are going to hurt to PP much at all.  It may hurt overall performance for a year or two, but then the PP is likely to over-perform.  Here’s why I believe this.  Take a look at this historical chart of Inter...

FYI - article: "The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TLT) experienced its worst three-week outflow since it began trading in 2002".

http://www.etftrends.com/2015/03/long-t ... -outflows/

Hi Fish, If you peruse this forum you'll find we don’t like TIPS.  They don't add any value to the portfolio.  I think CraigR said it best "buying TIPS is like buying arson insurance from an arsonist".  As for REITs, I don't see the value there either.  I already own all the REITs as part ...

The PP goes back further than 30 years.  Look at how the PP performed during rising interest rates (late 70’s and early 80’s).  It did just fine.  That's because while LT Treasures may decline, the other assets (stock, gold) will rise more than sufficiently to compensate. I say "Rising interest...

Hi all, Fun fact - I obtained a Playboy magazine from February 1975.  Page 16 is an advertisement for "Playboy Book Club Offer", here's the scanned page:  http://tightwadweb.com/playboy1.jpg As I perused the books shown I was very pleased that the great Harry Browne was listed amongst such...

Cool, I just bought it on Kindle.  I alway enjoy reading Browne's work. "Rule Your World" is now available Kindle also.  Its a Harry Browne seminar that he recorded in the late 1960's.  It was a $100 audio course, but his wife just had it transcribed into a $10 Kindle book.  It's partly ba...