Search found 1349 matches

by Hal
Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Age tilted PP
Replies: 13
Views: 8840

Age tilted PP

Just some musing on the PP and interested in some opinions..... 1. Equities and Bonds give a potential of a real return on capital, so they are investments. 2, Gold and Cash (to a lesser degree) are stores of wealth, so they are savings. 3. Elderly people typically cannot tolerate large drawdowns on...
by Hal
Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP in Other Countries (Economies)
Replies: 30
Views: 24096

Re: Backtesting the PP in Other Countries (Economies)

Well done !

I have long been interested in how (or if) gold hedges currency inflation of smaller nations.....

And soon I shall be "enlightened"
by Hal
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: James Rickards Portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 10725

Re: James Rickards Portfolio

And for those interested in the economic theory / history James Rickards discusses I highly recommend visiting the Mises Institute

As a sampler... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ml2U9_Zi2QI
by Hal
Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: James Rickards Portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 10725

Re: James Rickards Portfolio

Well, it looks like the allocations may have changed. In the "Road to Ruin" book he advises Gold and Silver - 10% Cash (some in physical notes) - 30% Real Estate (Agricultural or income producing)-20% Fine Art Fund- 5% Angel and Venture Capital 10% Hedge Funds 5% High Quality Sovereign Bonds 10% Sto...
by Hal
Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No Brainer Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 7140

Re: No Brainer Permanent Portfolio

Thanks for your comments. They prompted me to investigate a bit further, and while there seems to be some correlation, I cannot see a reason to hold silver. Except, perhaps, to trade the gold silver ratio which seems to recently be in a channel of 50/1 to 80/1. Suspect the author was trying to model...
by Hal
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No Brainer Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 7140

No Brainer Permanent Portfolio

In this article they talk about a variation to the PP

http://somehelpful.info/Finance/No-Brainer-PPF.htm

So the question is this.
While gold is thought of as a hedge against inflation, can silver fulfill this role as well?

Any other thoughts on the article are welcome !
by Hal
Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing Hypothesis
Replies: 9
Views: 7292

Re: Rebalancing Hypothesis

I think it is equally important to decide when you will "NOT" rebalance... If a country's credit rating is not good would you really rebalance and buy more of their bonds? In the attached link they talk about how Italy's 90 day bills were converted into 10 year bonds without the bond holders consent...
by Hal
Tue Apr 11, 2017 5:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85761

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

So are the principles espoused by Benjamin Graham still valid today, or should you just say "I don't know what is going to happen" and go for the PP?

http://www.conscious-investor.com/books ... vestor.pdf
by Hal
Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The ideal percentage of Gold in a portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 9647

Re: The ideal percentage of Gold in a portfolio

Another article along the same lines...

http://actuary-info.blogspot.com.au/201 ... escue.html

Hal
by Hal
Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Integrating retirement fund into PP
Replies: 7
Views: 5415

Re: Integrating retirement fund into PP

Thanks eufo, desert and Libertarian666, (edit: and stuper1 ! ) After some digging around I found the following results annualised over the past 10 years: Cash 3.6% Default Fund 5.24% and the expense ratios are buried so deeply, I cannot find them yet. Bear in mind Australia is coming out of a mining...
by Hal
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Integrating retirement fund into PP
Replies: 7
Views: 5415

Re: Integrating retirement fund into PP

Thanks for the reply eufo, Unfortunately, its either all cash or all the default fund. Nice idea but..... And just to rub salt in the wound, you can only change your selection twice in a year! I am leaning towards this total allocation 25% Cash option: All in the retirement fund 25% Gold/Silver 25% ...
by Hal
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Integrating retirement fund into PP
Replies: 7
Views: 5415

Integrating retirement fund into PP

Hello All, Yet another fitting a retirement fund into the PP question ! If you have a dormant retirement fund that you cannot access, or contribute to, until ceasing work (5 years away approx) and it constitutes about 25% of your assets, is there any way to make a PP with this? The fund consists of ...
by Hal
Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buy bonds now or wait
Replies: 57
Views: 32995

Re: Buy bonds now or wait

FWIW

Have a read of this article.
Rather than not start a PP at all, you may wish to use cash only instead of bonds......

http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com. ... short.html
by Hal
Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Single Fund International PP
Replies: 0
Views: 2497

Single Fund International PP

Hello All, Happened to come across this Vanguard VTINX Fund which nearly has a 2:1 bond/share ratio of both US and International bonds/shares. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0308&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 If you held gold as well to bring the portfolio to 75% VTINX 25% gold, how w...
by Hal
Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41729

Re: Slowly bleeding

There was a controversial guy who used to post on here whose portfolio was basically 50% stocks and 50% gold. He claimed it was less volatile than one might imagine. If you have a fairly long time horizon to ride out some volatility, you might consider that portfolio, since you seem to want to avoi...
by Hal
Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spending gold during a currency meltdown
Replies: 7
Views: 4732

Re: Spending gold during a currency meltdown

Jim Rickards recommended a monster box of 1 ounce silver coins. https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/730621145683230720 From what I had been told during the fall of the old Soviet Union + WW2: Silver was for trading. Gold was to preserve your wealth through the crisis. Hope I never have to find...
by Hal
Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does Gold function in a non-US PP
Replies: 6
Views: 4818

Re: How does Gold function in a non-US PP

For your reading pleasure

https://mises.org/search/site/iceland

and click on pdf for Deep Freeze

Enjoy
Hal
by Hal
Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does Gold function in a non-US PP
Replies: 6
Views: 4818

Re: How does Gold function in a non-US PP

Thanks for your thoughts. So if you live in a "dodgy" country (eg. Zimbabwe) then run a US P.P. If in a good non US economy (eg. Singapore) then run a Bogle portfolio. Seems reasonable to me... On the extra gold or USD, is that included in the 40% fixed interest portion, or is it separate from the b...
by Hal
Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does Gold function in a non-US PP
Replies: 6
Views: 4818

How does Gold function in a non-US PP

I have finished reading a book called Meltdown regarding the Icelandic financial crash. It appeared that if you are in a small country, the best you can hope from gold is that it will preserve the purchasing power of 25% of your local PP. Now if there was a loss of confidence in the USD, I could see...
by Hal
Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:49 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: William Jenning Bryan's "Cross of Gold" Speech
Replies: 1
Views: 2469

Re: William Jenning Bryan's "Cross of Gold" Speech

Good Find MG.

Having a good look around that site.
A second book found from the same era, with another speech (1st was the Monetary School)

https://archive.org/stream/coinsfinanci ... rch/speech

Also interesting insight into Banking and US politics of the era.
by Hal
Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:37 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Bi-Metallic Standard
Replies: 17
Views: 9941

Re: Bi-Metallic Standard

This is the 1890's view on cash. Read the section on "A greenbacker". Actually seems reasonable to me. https://archive.org/stream/coinsfinancialsc00harvrich#page/74/mode/2up/search/greenback but the part I really like is talking about National Debt https://archive.org/stream/coinsfinancialsc00harvri...
by Hal
Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:00 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Bi-Metallic Standard
Replies: 17
Views: 9941

Re: Bi-Metallic Standard

Thanks for the explanation.

Seems to align with whats said on pg 76 (Now I have read that far!)

So the PP makes sense unless gold/silver is ever remonetised.....

PS. You have to check out the bear hunters prayer on pg 134 !!
by Hal
Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Bi-Metallic Standard
Replies: 17
Views: 9941

Bi-Metallic Standard

Currently reading a most interesting book on the Bi-Metallic monetary system of the 1800's.

https://archive.org/stream/coinsfinanci ... 5/mode/2up

The question comes to mind is why the PP uses gold only, as both silver and gold have been de-monetized.

Any comments?

Hal
by Hal
Sun May 08, 2016 10:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Anyone wants to have my sheets with historical investment returns? & My views
Replies: 11
Views: 6393

Re: Anyone wants to have my sheets with historical investment returns? & My views

Hi Marc,

Good to see you back again!
Also interested in your 50/50 Gold/Stocks proposal.....

Out of curiosity, what rebalancing bands would you use, and the rationale behind what you choose??

Libertarian666, feel free to comment seeing you are running 50% gold as well.

Hal
by Hal
Thu Apr 28, 2016 4:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: study of 90-10 portfolios
Replies: 13
Views: 8873

Re: study of 90-10 portfolios

Would something like Rob Kirby's Portfolio be considered equivalent to Larry Swedroes Black Swan approach?? 1/3 Equity, 1/3 Cash/Bonds 1/3 Real Assets (Gold etc) ie 1/3 Risk 2/3 Low Risk http://taxoasis.com/files/EVERYTHING-You-Need-to-Know-About-Investing.pdf Any thoughts on this 3 x 33% approach? ...