"More than half of Americans, 52 percent, are currently not investing in the stock market—either by buying individual stocks or mutual funds, or through a retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a new Bankrate.com survey." "A study from the Federal Reserve found that ...

internationalcanuck, Suggestion – Instead of replacing the 3x gold ETF with a 2x, why not just reduce the 3x gold allocation?  For example, my backtesting shows this has been a good mix for long-term stability: 38% UPRO 38% TMF 24% UGLD What I do is dollar-cost-average in every month.  This smooths ...

Sorry to hear, stay strong bro.

Hi Fish, I’ve updated my JuicyP website, it’s all ETFs now.  I dollar cost average in monthly so I’m only adding to the ETFs and will sell my remaining VWINX at year-end rebalance time.  Yes my JuicyP outperforms the pure PP (that’s the point), but it’s not really a fair comparison because my portfo...

PS,

For free backtesting of various ETFs and/or mutual funds combination these 2 tools are the best: 

http://ezbacktest.blogspot.com

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

I agree Barrett.  I’ll be buying TLT as it goes down for sure.  At Fidelity TLT is commission free, so I can place Buy-Limit orders for the smallest quantity (1 share).  This is very nice since I’m in the accumulation phase of my PP and constantly adding to it.  It lets me buy the dips.

Hi D1984, The PP did just fine during 1977-1981. Also, let’s not forget the perceived flight to safety that LT US bonds represent.  For example, right you need to pay the German govt to hold their bonds (negative interest rates).  And you know what, people are paying it!  People will pay to keep the...

One more thought.  Forgive me for sounding too cocky here, but I don’t think rising interests are going to hurt to PP much at all.  It may hurt overall performance for a year or two, but then the PP is likely to over-perform.  Here’s why I believe this.  Take a look at this historical chart of Inter...

FYI - article: "The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TLT) experienced its worst three-week outflow since it began trading in 2002".

http://www.etftrends.com/2015/03/long-t ... -outflows/

Hi Fish, If you peruse this forum you'll find we don’t like TIPS.  They don't add any value to the portfolio.  I think CraigR said it best "buying TIPS is like buying arson insurance from an arsonist".  As for REITs, I don't see the value there either.  I already own all the REITs as part ...

The PP goes back further than 30 years.  Look at how the PP performed during rising interest rates (late 70’s and early 80’s).  It did just fine.  That's because while LT Treasures may decline, the other assets (stock, gold) will rise more than sufficiently to compensate. I say "Rising interest...

Hi all, Fun fact - I obtained a Playboy magazine from February 1975.  Page 16 is an advertisement for "Playboy Book Club Offer", here's the scanned page:  http://tightwadweb.com/playboy1.jpg As I perused the books shown I was very pleased that the great Harry Browne was listed amongst such...

Cool, I just bought it on Kindle.  I alway enjoy reading Browne's work. "Rule Your World" is now available Kindle also.  Its a Harry Browne seminar that he recorded in the late 1960's.  It was a $100 audio course, but his wife just had it transcribed into a $10 Kindle book.  It's partly ba...

I use Fidelity, 3 of the 4 fund can be bought commission free:

ITOT total stock market
TLT bonds
IAU gold
SHY cash

Kbg, how did you calculate those January performance numbers? 

ETFreplay.com shows the following returns for January 2015:

(1x) PP: TLT/GLD/SHY/VTI = +4.15%
(3x) PP: UPRO/UGLD/TMF = +16.1%

Very well said TripleB.  I agree with all your points.  I sold my house last year and took a loss just to get out of the shit-hole state of Illinois.  Best move of my live.  Now I'm renting in Florida for far less the cost of ownership.  IMO the biggest item is the opportunity cost.  For example, yo...

True.  One approach could be to gradually buy in.  For example, purchase the exact same dollar amount of all 3 three ETFS every month.  Slightly more commission costs, but that kind of dollar cost averaging may smooth it out.  Then you'd sell each tax lot annually+1. One a separate note, here's a ch...

Kbg wrote: Annually appears to work well.

Yup, that's how I plan on rebalancing it, after 1 year so its long-term capital gains.   
I'm doing the 3x ETF portfolio in my taxable brokerage account.  Just a small VP to see how it goes this year.  So far I'm very impressed.

Well said TripleB.  We all can relate.

Yeah, I would love to read them too.  If anyone has the goodies, don't bogart them.

Well said MediumTex.  Bravo!

Hi Frugal, here's the 10-year chart:



The backtesting software is called EzBackTest, and its free and easy to use!  Google it and you'll be able to backtest for yourself.

Ozzy

You are correct robtkatz,

With yearly rebalancing, EzBackTest software shows a 8.30% CAGR for the past 10 years.  Here's the screenshot:

That's true Reub.  And that's initially what I set out to do.  Nothing wrong with that approach.  Its simple, and my backtesting shows it delivered a 10.29% CAGR from 1971, with only 3 small negative years, the worst was in 1981, it was down only -6.94%.  Its a damn good portfolio. However, for myse...

Happy New Year all!

I've updated my Juicy Portfolio website with the Year 2014 results.  It returned +9.45%.  I'm happy.

http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html

I wish you all a prosperous 2015!
-Ozzy