That's a strange article....Articles like that one always frustrate me...

If there's one thing I learned early in life, it's that nothing is ever correctly reported in a newspaper article
: )  

"Very timely article by Kiplinger.  Obviously I tend to agree that the PP may suffer in its returns the next 10 years..." Who knows...the whole point of the PP is that you don't have worry about these predictions.  It's just as possible that we'll be re-reading that article 10 years from n...

"Since August 31, 2010, TLT is down almost 18%.  Other treasury funds are down similar amounts. Why?" I think are two main things that make Treasury bond yields go up (ie, price of fund go down). 1.  Optimism about other investments (the stock market, mostly).  If people think they can mak...

"It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this company, ARM holdings (ARMH), might be as big or bigger than Intel someday." Companies like Intel are very very very rare.  In William Berstein's book, "The 4 Pillars of Investing," Berstein devotes a chapter or so to th...

"With all the talk about inflation and dollar collapse in the last couple of years, one wouldn't think that the dollar had actually strengthened during that period." I think this a key point.  There is extreme bullish sentiment with respect to gold at present, and almost everyone is bearis...

"When I believe the wind is at our back and stocks and bonds are cheap again my advisor will be happy to re-adopt a passive approach."

What makes you think your advisor (or anyone) can predict this?  And, if they can, why do you think an active manager can outperform passive returns?

Adam

I am sure that this falls into the category of "tinkering," but have to ask... Does anyone write covered calls against any of their positions when it's time to rebalance? It seems like it if you were using ETF's it may be a reasonably safe way to generate a little extra income...then again...

Don't be so certain about inflation.  Although the typical argument (more printed dollars chasing fewer goods) seems impossible to refute, it ignores the huge deflationary pressures that the global economy is experiencing right now.  Americans are becoming increasingly aware of the government's atte...

Your dad sounds more open-minded than most. 

I find that you get about two sentences to explain almost anything to most people.  Once you're at the point where you're pulling out charts and comparing returns, most people have written you off (or maybe I just lack charisma). 

Adam

Great point, Moda.  I was making some ill-advised investments myself.  I was trying to use the 200 day moving average to "position trade" and also even using options and trading on margin. The thing is, I think you have to have gone through this kind of stuff to realize how sound the PP ph...

Interesting post, MT.  I think we would be lucky to get off as easily as the Japanese (not they are getting off that easily).  They were a creditor nation at the time their bubble burst.  The majority of the debt that they did carry was to their own people. We may be in a situation where other natio...

Not sure about the PP part of the purchase, but kudos for being smart enough not to blow a small fortune on a car. 

I think Medium Tex meant that he could have $1k cash in hand in a few hours, during a crisis.  If you sell a mutual fund or and ETF or whatever, it's gonna take 3 days or so to have cash in hand, and that's when everything is running smoothly.  Under the circumstances in which you'd be cashing in go...

It's even snowing here in El Paso...

I think that's true (with regard to the fed's ownership of US debt), but I think that discounts a lot of the side monkey business with derivatives, etc, a lot of which I think that a lot of this is still on the books of a lot of the banks (although I don't really know this for a fact). I don't think...

I think the bottom line is that it's impossible to predict which will we have more of in the futre (inflation or deflation). Deflationary pressure is huge right now b/c of all the bad debt in the form of mortgage backed securities that are still plaguing our financial institutions. So far, we have m...

I am not 100% certain about this but here's my take: You are right about IAU and GLD being similar to VTI or Vanguard Index funds.  You in, theory, should be okay if the parent firm goes broke (unless there's any fraudulent activity, as mentioned by Wonk). GTU is different. It's a close-ended fund. ...

How important do you guys think it is to own physical gold versus gold held in something like GTU or Goldmoney.com or the Perth Mint or something?

Just curious.

Adam

I am very curious to hear what people think about this.  I know HB toyed with the idea of using zeros, but decided against it.  He did mention that, when push comes to shove, they may be okay.  I have to think that you're better off in a 50/50 split of BND and EDV than you are paying taxes on 30 yea...

I think the true definitions of inflation/deflation are simply  an increase (or decrease) in the overall supply of money and credit.  The thing is, there are so many different types of money and credit these days that it becomes deceptive to think in these simple terms.  ie, "We're monetizing d...

Agree completely.  I would also add that holding a hard asset such as gold in your portfolio does wonders for your psychology as an investor.  Helps avoid panic when things get bad.

That being the case, what is it that determines whether an economy inflates or deflates in bad times?  What makes the US different than Zimbabwe or Argentina? 

Adam

Also "Frisby's Bulls and Bears".  The guy is very smart on either side of most economic debates, and therefore a great interviewer.

MT-- Very interesting perspective, and one that strikes me as true.  In inflation, the price of everything, including labor, should go up. I think the argument that someone who was a die hard inflationist may make is that the true definition of inflation is simply an increase in the supply of money ...

It really is a unique time economically.  One the one hand, we seem to be printing enough money to guarantee pretty bad inflation.  On the other, everyone is scared of debt crisis/municipal default (deflationary depression)  Either scenario seems very feasible.  Then again, markets tend to surprise ...