Hrux said:  "What it says to me is that you should have bought the areas of the stock market that were clearly undervalued 10 years ago, rather that cap weighted indices." What were those areas ten years ago?  What are those areas today? Hrux said:  "You all are probably getting tired...

Rebalancing to me seems to be a key piece of the Permanent Portfolio that hasn't been analyzed with enough depth....(then again, maybe it has and I just haven't come across the info yet.) I would be curious to find out (based on tax bracket) what the ideal rebalancing levels are to maximize CAGR an...

When people say it's overpriced, it usually means that 1) they think gold is overpriced... I like gold much more, as a part of the PP, when it's cheap and viewed as an obsolete investment by most.  I don't like when it does well, because it usually means the economy is doing poorly.  I do enjoy sel...

...you'd end up in a situation where some kind of commodity basket ETF and corporate/muni bonds outperform the PP for a short period.  Maybe, but I think being overpriced is much different than being in a bubble.  Funny the amount of mental fortitude it takes to weave yourself through an argument t...

It would take extremely unusual economic circumstances for PP to form a bubble.  I'm not really sure how it would even be possible.

"Why would the risk be less with GTU or Gold Money? Further, why does GLD have more risk then VTI?" GTU and Gold Money hold all of their gold in vaults that are regularly audited.  I don't think GLD does this, and I believe it may actually lend its gold out.  I'm not saying that GLD has mo...

I dunno... Harry Browne's attitude (at least as it came across to me in Fail Safe Investing) was basically, "if you must speculate, try not lose your shirt, and don't expect to be successful."  I'm inclined to agree. I'm not sure why you think any of these portfolios will outperform your P...

Do you worry about counter-party risk with GLD and IAU? 

Have you ever considered GTU or even Goldmoney.com?

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 13074.html

Honestly, does anyone really believe that one has anything to do with the other?

Also, you find gold more appropriate for IRAs than stocks?  I was trying to weigh the same thing with the 28% rate compared to having to pay tax on dividends.  It's somewhat apples and oranges, but I'd like to hear your input on gold vs stocks being in a tax deferred account. I struggle with the sa...

He said he was using mostly MLP's and preferred stock for income investors, so I'm guessing it was a little easier for him to explain the strategy to his clients than it would be to someone who has been watching Mad Money for the last 5 years.

Am I right?

http://www.voiceamerica.com/Show/Episod ... u-do/54791

Here's a great link with the arguments for both inflation and deflation. 

Playback time is about an hour.

30 minute interview with Ron Paul.  30 minute interview with Robert Prechter. 

Adam

That's a strange article....Articles like that one always frustrate me...

If there's one thing I learned early in life, it's that nothing is ever correctly reported in a newspaper article
: )  

"Very timely article by Kiplinger.  Obviously I tend to agree that the PP may suffer in its returns the next 10 years..." Who knows...the whole point of the PP is that you don't have worry about these predictions.  It's just as possible that we'll be re-reading that article 10 years from n...

"Since August 31, 2010, TLT is down almost 18%.  Other treasury funds are down similar amounts. Why?" I think are two main things that make Treasury bond yields go up (ie, price of fund go down). 1.  Optimism about other investments (the stock market, mostly).  If people think they can mak...

"It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this company, ARM holdings (ARMH), might be as big or bigger than Intel someday." Companies like Intel are very very very rare.  In William Berstein's book, "The 4 Pillars of Investing," Berstein devotes a chapter or so to th...

"With all the talk about inflation and dollar collapse in the last couple of years, one wouldn't think that the dollar had actually strengthened during that period." I think this a key point.  There is extreme bullish sentiment with respect to gold at present, and almost everyone is bearis...

"When I believe the wind is at our back and stocks and bonds are cheap again my advisor will be happy to re-adopt a passive approach."

What makes you think your advisor (or anyone) can predict this?  And, if they can, why do you think an active manager can outperform passive returns?

Adam

I am sure that this falls into the category of "tinkering," but have to ask... Does anyone write covered calls against any of their positions when it's time to rebalance? It seems like it if you were using ETF's it may be a reasonably safe way to generate a little extra income...then again...

Don't be so certain about inflation.  Although the typical argument (more printed dollars chasing fewer goods) seems impossible to refute, it ignores the huge deflationary pressures that the global economy is experiencing right now.  Americans are becoming increasingly aware of the government's atte...

Your dad sounds more open-minded than most. 

I find that you get about two sentences to explain almost anything to most people.  Once you're at the point where you're pulling out charts and comparing returns, most people have written you off (or maybe I just lack charisma). 

Adam

Great point, Moda.  I was making some ill-advised investments myself.  I was trying to use the 200 day moving average to "position trade" and also even using options and trading on margin. The thing is, I think you have to have gone through this kind of stuff to realize how sound the PP ph...

Interesting post, MT.  I think we would be lucky to get off as easily as the Japanese (not they are getting off that easily).  They were a creditor nation at the time their bubble burst.  The majority of the debt that they did carry was to their own people. We may be in a situation where other natio...

Not sure about the PP part of the purchase, but kudos for being smart enough not to blow a small fortune on a car. 

I think Medium Tex meant that he could have $1k cash in hand in a few hours, during a crisis.  If you sell a mutual fund or and ETF or whatever, it's gonna take 3 days or so to have cash in hand, and that's when everything is running smoothly.  Under the circumstances in which you'd be cashing in go...