Search found 176 matches

by Thomas Hoog
Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 252811

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

I have also been playing around (great data) with set of allocations with round figures 0, 10, 20 etc. and the 40 years periode and the 30 years period. In the 30 years period the HP allocation performs less compared to the 40 years period. However the final conclusion was a 10 % (cash), 20 % (Gold...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112157

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

never been so lucky
best performer is Diageo, which I bought because they sell whisky
Seems without risk for me, if they went bankrupt, I should get some bottle's out of their stock as shareholder.
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Feb 20, 2013 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112157

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

I think you just prove HB's: Rule #1: Your career provides your wealth. You most likely will make far more money from your business or profession than from your investments. Only very rarely does someone make a large fortune from investments. Marc's real quest is: Is there a portfolio (VP) which "ma...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 252811

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

I have also been playing around (great data) with set of allocations with round figures 0, 10, 20 etc. and the 40 years periode and the 30 years period. In the 30 years period the HP allocation performs less compared to the 40 years period. However the final conclusion was a 10 % (cash), 20 % (Gold)...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The "Permanent Boglehead Portfolio"
Replies: 8
Views: 6584

Re: The "Permanent Boglehead Portfolio"

It looks very like my own allocation; I use 40 % stocks & 30 % Bonds Backtesting (simba) P1: HP PP P2: 40 % stocks, 30 % Bonds, 20 % Gold, 10 % Cash P3: 30 % stocks, 40 % Bonds, 20 % Gold, 10 % Cash P1 P2 P3 Average 9,46% 10,18% 9,97% Std. Dev. 7,79% 8,62% 7,94% Down SD 2,53% 3,33% 2,64% Up SD 6,58%...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Riskvalue
Replies: 0
Views: 1287

Riskvalue

I have made a small PP-like portfolio for my wife at a different broker Allocation: Stocks 40%, Bonds 30 %, Gold 20 %, Cash 10 %. This broker provides a riskvalue of the portfolio using: To calculate the risk value of the portfolio xxBank uses the following system. The performance of your current po...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:54 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 11237

Re: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation

I think I agree with K9 There is not such a thing like equity investment in your domestic country. I could buy the AEX index (Netherlands), but the componies have almost nothing to do with the local economic situation. 80 % of their revenues are global. BMW sells more cars in China then in Germany a...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: My Mistakes in gold allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 2265

Re: My Mistakes in gold allocation

There is no ideal world
My compromise:
SPDR Gold, ZKB Gold EFT (EUR), ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust ETF (SGOL), about 70 %
Boullion vault, about 20 %, that's really nice, altough I really don't know how secure it is.
Coins, about 10 %
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:26 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 11237

Re: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation

You are from Portugal, that's still Europa, so you can buy the Europa Stocks (in EUR)
Isreal is definitly no Europa Country with their own currency (Shekel ??)
by Thomas Hoog
Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:03 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 11237

Re: Very confused about domestic/international stock allocation

Nice question I'm afraid that a Middle East index (if exist) is mostly a oil based index, which will be not very diversed. Why no be very practical and just take a World stock index (DM+EM) maybe in your own currency, otherwise dollars. I really don't know if the world index is contrair to Israel Bo...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withholding tax in European PP
Replies: 9
Views: 5078

Re: Withholding tax in European PP

Thomas Hoog, another option which is not common for here: Amundi Funds Index Equity Euro – AE what do you think about this in terms of performance, tax, dividends, and fees ? Regards. I don't know exactly the difference, but it seems this one is more actieve managed in compare with Amundi ETF MSCI ...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withholding tax in European PP
Replies: 9
Views: 5078

Re: Withholding tax in European PP

Dutch tax on dividends of 15% is not a problem. You can ask it back in your Tax appliance There is no one tracker that is perfect. You want: a broad EUR stock tracker non including UK no dividend (accumulate) (tracker (acc) lowest TER ratio A quick scan: http://www.indexvolger.nl/ Aandelen: db x-tra...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Public investment strategies
Replies: 13
Views: 4378

Re: Public investment strategies

I disagree They are 2 different worlds Investing & modern portfolio strategy is based on the assumption that every piece of news is reflected in the value of the concerning assets. Trading fills the gape between actual news and the value. They don't have a strategy so there is nothing to post on the...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:55 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Great Returns!
Replies: 34
Views: 12551

Re: Great Returns!

Funny, we discuss daytrading during X-mas dinner, because one brother-in-law will start daytrading because he has lost his job, something in the financial world. The other brother-in-law know really one couple who makes a living out of daytrading and more. figures about 500 k a year. And they fitted...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Japanese PP performance 2012
Replies: 12
Views: 5760

Re: Japanese PP performance 2012

The performance of Gold is excellent. Is it because of the Yen-dollar exchange rate ??
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withholding tax in European PP
Replies: 9
Views: 5078

Re: Withholding tax in European PP

Also Dutch And yes, you are correct "And some paperwork" is an underestimation. I have never try it, but as far I have read about it, it is very bureacratic. You have to fill in a lot of papers and sent it tom the embassy (??). I never met anyone who has done. So you loss something like 0.4 - 0.7 %....
by Thomas Hoog
Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predictions For 2013
Replies: 95
Views: 33834

Re: Predictions For 2013

I have proven in the past to be the worst prophet of all, so be aware
VTI: +32 %
TLT: - 8 %
GLD  -12 %
SHY  + 4 %
makes + 4 % portfolio
by Thomas Hoog
Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Performance for 2012
Replies: 27
Views: 13148

Re: Permanent Portfolio Performance for 2012

European Portfolio (Marc de Mesel) Portfolio: 8 % Stocks (MSCI EMU Index (net): 19 % Bonds (iBoxx € Germ. 10+ (Tot Ret): 8 % Gold (National Bank Belgium (kg): 4% Cash ( iBoxx EONIA Index (Tot Ret): 0 % Dutch Design (own portfolio) Portfolio: 12,7 % Stocks (50 % allocations; global): 16,4 % Bonds 20%...
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 80-90% of your Total Savings in PP
Replies: 43
Views: 22506

Re: 80-90% of your Total Savings in PP

That makes a 42,5%, 32,5%, 12,5%, 12,5 % allocation. That's not HB PP nor conventional, but a Budd portfolio. SIMBA results (1985 - 2011) Budd, average: 9,7 %,  Std dev: 8,3 % PP, average: 8,3 %, Std dev: 5,7% witch means that the changes you like a idiot with a PP portfolio is much smaller then con...
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why I'm Moving Back To 90% PP / 10% VP
Replies: 8
Views: 4157

Re: Why I'm Moving Back To 90% PP / 10% VP

recognizable & funny I follow the same trail with a 50 % stocks, 20 % Bonds &  Gold & 10 Cash and with individual stocks. I have lost against the full PP portfolio by 0.3 % a year (2002/2012). I beat the global world stock index with 12 % (2002 / 2012). That is only 1 % a year. So it is not worth th...
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Optimization REMOVING Cash
Replies: 11
Views: 5749

Re: Optimization REMOVING Cash

I think it depends on your personal situation and risk sensitivity. The PP is almost riskfree (until now) en performs well. However I can permit to take a higher risk and hold only 10 % cash mainly for balance purposes. When retirement is near I will increase the Cash allocation just like Lifestyle ...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Reinvesting funds and taxes in Europe
Replies: 7
Views: 3343

Re: Reinvesting funds and taxes in Europe

In the netherlands (also europa) there are no taxes on dividend or interest only on capital
In your case I would take reinvesting funds
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 80-90% of your Total Savings in PP
Replies: 43
Views: 22506

Re: 80-90% of your Total Savings in PP

95 %
Real estate not included
5 % cash separate for unseen risks; broken car, washing machine etc..
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Implementing GLOBAL PP
Replies: 23
Views: 11833

Re: Implementing GLOBAL PP

Funny, the more people speak about a economic melt down the better the performance
My portfolio performance this year (half global, half euopa): 13%
Cash: 2,0 %
LR eur Bonds: 11 %
Gold: 10 %
Stocks (50 % allocation): 16 %

I think i just act like a ostrich
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Real ASSETS
Replies: 19
Views: 10694

Re: Real ASSETS

almost agree with K9

You can make the cash asset out of:
Eonia: Euro OverNight Index Average (Marc de Messel) uses this one
or
iShares Barclays Euro Treasury Bond 0-1
performs almost close to zero, but riskfree as intented