Search found 1352 matches

by Hal
Fri Jan 06, 2023 4:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 37
Views: 65556

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

OK, so HB said cash was for a "Tight money recession" (ie High interest rates to slow the economy) Not sure where you live, but if interest rates are low, then cash won't be doing much for you. But then in a balanced portfolio, there will always be one asset class not doing well. eg bonds ...
by Hal
Wed Jan 04, 2023 5:50 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"
Replies: 6
Views: 1923

Oxford Uni talk "Understanding Money"

By Alasdair Macleod, Mises society
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHKPa8K4bQ8

Do you agree? All comments welcome.
by Hal
Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 26426

Re: 2022 Returns

One thing I am proud of is that I worked up the courage to purchase 30 year treasuries recently. One interesting thing about the PP / GB is that it makes you confront financial behaviors. I was talking to a friend and telling him that your body physically will not allow you to step off a cliff. Tha...
by Hal
Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 26426

Re: 2022 Returns

Aussie Goldsmith portfolio.
by Hal
Fri Dec 30, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Has Anyone Here Bought a Real Estate Contract?
Replies: 6
Views: 724

Re: Has Anyone Here Bought a Real Estate Contract?

With both stocks and bonds in the toilet, with inflation destroying the value of cash, and with interest rates soaring, the idea of becoming a lender is making more and more sense to me. The idea would be to buy a contract from an existing secured lender at a discount, one that provides for the rem...
by Hal
Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:37 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1173
Views: 985284

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

You dont wake up one day and there's a crematorium next door. It takes years of otherizing people and normalizing the quarantine of healthy people and medical treatments at gunpoint. You stand against this now. Coincidentally.... https://www.zerohedge.com/political/aussie-cops-ask-neighbors-rat-out...
by Hal
Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:13 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1231
Views: 625804

Re: YouTube Junkie

by Hal
Fri Dec 23, 2022 1:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Would you buy an even longer bond?
Replies: 13
Views: 5994

Re: Would you buy an even longer bond?

Total bond is like 2/3 Treasurys so it could be a substitute except for duration. Its roughly intermediate. The PP is a risk parity portfolio. I don't think it works if you don't get the volatility that LTT's provide in my opinion. +1. The Early Retirement Extreme site covers this issue. <snip> In ...
by Hal
Fri Dec 23, 2022 12:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Huh, 1/N Asset Allocation is Quite Robust
Replies: 12
Views: 3849

Re: Huh, 1/N Asset Allocation is Quite Robust

Interesting to compare a Larry twist - shift bond risk over to the stock (and gold) side, holding more volatile stocks such as Small Cap Value, compared to the PP PV On a Monte Carlo measure ... PV MC Looks safer/better than the PP's PV MC ... worse cases were less bad, average/best cases were bett...
by Hal
Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:05 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Bank Bonuses
Replies: 36
Views: 11548

Re: Bank Bonuses

Bitcoin is speculation, pure and simple. If you want to put it in the VP with money you can afford to lose, go right ahead. <snip> Besides, Superman endorsed savings bonds as part of Truth, Justice, and the American Way. (See the fun episode on youtube) Cryptocurrencies are looking more speculative...
by Hal
Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Died Suddenly
Replies: 85
Views: 6875

Re: Died Suddenly

I put "documentary" in quotes because it blurs like line between documentary and docu-drama. I'll see if I can dig up a link somewhere, I'm sure it's all over Twitter. But not on the basketball threads, which is why he couldn't find it.... Here you go. https://www.bitchute.com/video/4LIve...
by Hal
Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 22
Views: 3584

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

A good, perhaps better choice than the PP is to dump the bonds, just hold 50/50 stock/gold. Viewed from a betting odds perspective and the odds historically were good, create a Callan table of yearly total real gain/loss for each of stock and gold, years best at the top of each year, worst at the b...
by Hal
Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cause of aircraft crash?
Replies: 4
Views: 886

Re: Cause of aircraft crash?

by Hal
Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Casino-Chip Society
Replies: 9
Views: 1295

Re: Casino-Chip Society

Fundamentally money is a human representation of "value" based on "faith" in whatever "made" the money. Personally, I think derivatives terminology is more helpful. Level 0: A real thing (backed by nothing because it exists and is an entity...a cow, land, a hamburger, ...
by Hal
Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best passive real estate investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 1762

Re: Best passive real estate investments?

I'm looking to do passive investment in real estate that involves lower-end residential housing/apartment buildings. I'm looking for "lower-end" because it's supposedly more recession-proof than higher-end housing. Are you sure its more recession proof. I cannot comment on lower end US ho...
by Hal
Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:26 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1231
Views: 625804

Re: YouTube Junkie

by Hal
Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1231
Views: 625804

Re: YouTube Junkie

Something Smithy could try with his dog :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VX1V_96wyk
by Hal
Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond tutorial
Replies: 1
Views: 1230

Bond tutorial

by Hal
Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:20 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2756

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

IMHO the principles that Browne offered that are not just sound but brilliant are those related to truly diversifying one's assets beyond stocks and bonds, not investing in things one doesn't understand, being conservative with money one can't afford to lose while also having play money and so on. ...
by Hal
Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:25 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2756

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

And 2022 has certainly shown - with a vengeance - that those who thought LTT's would zig when equities zagged didn't know their market history. Hi Kevin, Let me pose this question. Do you think the premise the PP was founded on is still valid? That is, LTT's do well in deflation/Gold in Inflation/C...
by Hal
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1739451

Re: The GOLD scream room

mathjak107 wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:42 pm
Other countries where inflation has weakened their currency are seeing nice gold returns .
Gold has done well versus the "Pacific Peso" :D
by Hal
Thu Nov 10, 2022 4:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Optimisation - A waste of time?
Replies: 3
Views: 1469

Re: Optimisation - A waste of time?

Kbg wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:17 am
My take: useful yes, but not as a means to predict or expect the same outcome in the future.
Just for fun. What a difference a year makes :D
by Hal
Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:38 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Corporate Bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 2987

Re: Corporate Bonds

But...the barbell is what I am looking to get to. Have enough "safe" investments, social security, gold, US bonds, etc, to allow decently higher risk on the other end. Here's a starter I did a while back for Australia. Will be interested to see what you decide on. Not many choices down he...