Search found 165 matches

by mukramesh
Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
Replies: 148
Views: 45684

Re: The Risk Parity PP

forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well  compare daily . Right but I am talking about a hypothetical investor who started in the year 2000 and has a 30 year investment time frame. The first 15 years are over and stocks didn't do so well; he has 15 years to go. What does he do? S...
by mukramesh
Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: POLL: How Old Are You?
Replies: 16
Views: 7978

Re: POLL: How Old Are You?

24. Hoping to go the ERE track  ;)
by mukramesh
Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
Replies: 148
Views: 45684

Re: The Risk Parity PP

mathjak107 wrote: forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well  compare daily .
Right but I am talking about a hypothetical investor who started in the year 2000 and has a 30 year investment time frame. The first 15 years are over and stocks didn't do so well; he has 15 years to go. What does he do?
by mukramesh
Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
Replies: 148
Views: 45684

Re: The Risk Parity PP

@mathjak107: Regarding your argument about stocks being the way to go for all long term investing, you agree that this is only true for the US investor or for those investing in the US stock market, correct? Other countries (Japan, for instance) haven't had the same rosy stock market history as us. ...
by mukramesh
Thu Jul 09, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
Replies: 148
Views: 45684

Re: The Risk Parity PP

@mathjak107: Yes obviously historically that worked very well for the US stock market investor; no one is arguing about history. We are just talking about predictions going forward. You are advising to bet heavily that the historic trend continues whereas the PP investors believe that our portfolio ...
by mukramesh
Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
Replies: 148
Views: 45684

Re: The Risk Parity PP

@buddtholomew: I understand what you are saying as well. But essentially, mathjak has two points: 1. Upside potential (stocks) is more important than downside protection (PP). 2. In the 'long run,' stocks will always win, regardless of what price you bought them. As a PP investor, I disagree with bo...
by mukramesh
Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
Replies: 148
Views: 45684

Re: The Risk Parity PP

Okay fair enough. Just another small point, you made this comment as well i can't predict but just something to keep in mind if you are trying to grow a nest egg and not just preserve money. But you are definitely making a prediction here. Your prediction is: gold will keep going down so you won't h...
by mukramesh
Thu Jul 09, 2015 1:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
Replies: 148
Views: 45684

Re: The Risk Parity PP

just keep that in the back of your mind. when those rates trend back , which eventually they will it will be very different than it was prior. @Mathjak107: You've been posting this idea in a number of topics on this website. And I agree that we have clearly had an environment that led to falling in...
by mukramesh
Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: risk parity / volatility
Replies: 10
Views: 4325

Re: risk parity / volatility

The equivalent portfolio mix is:     Gold: 19%     20yr Treasuries: 52%     S&P 500: 29% I personally would then add a healthy slug of cash to further dampen it. Isn't that almost the same as a PP if you split the 20yr treasuries in half and call it 26% 30yr Treasuries and 26% Short Term Treasuries...
by mukramesh
Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296912

Re: No where to hide

A conservative BH portfolio is 50/50. Gold could certainly underperform equities in the above scenario so the results are not conclusive with a flat to lower stock market. True for gold. However I imagine long term treasuries would fare somewhat better than the 50% of the Boglehead portfolio that i...
by mukramesh
Thu Jun 11, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst 3 year PP performance ever?
Replies: 124
Views: 55293

Re: Worst 3 year PP performance ever?

@Kevin: That's true, but gold also seemed to help the PP in the 2000's. I mean, look at all that green compared to the Swedroe portfolio! Also protection against 2008-like events is pretty nifty ;)
by mukramesh
Thu Jun 11, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296912

Re: No where to hide

Everyone always suspected that the biggest threat to the PP was a rising stock market, and that's pretty much been the story the last couple of years. That's utter nonsense!  The PP would be DESTROYED without a rising stock market. That may be true, but imagine how much more devastating it would be...
by mukramesh
Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
Replies: 60
Views: 20226

Re: Newbie implementing PP in India

@LC475: I understand what you are saying regarding Gold's 'world price' not necessarily being affected, however your Zimbabwe scenario showed that even a Zimbabwe-PP would have done somewhat better than any other Zimbabwe-only investment strategies due to holding gold. I'll have to think about what ...
by mukramesh
Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
Replies: 60
Views: 20226

Re: Newbie implementing PP in India

We have reason to think that gold won't work so great as an inflation hedge for India because the Indian rupee is not the reserve currency of the world, nor even a very major currency.  So if the rupee crashes, gold will not necessarily skyrocket much, if at all. Can you explain this? My understand...
by mukramesh
Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
Replies: 117
Views: 39769

Re: New PPer needs guidance.

At the risk of being accused of market timing, it may not be a bad idea to take the funds you've allocated for a Permanent Portfolio and ease in, perhaps over 3 or 4 quarters (in 33% or 25% increments). Of course it's a good idea to dollar cost average into a set of new investments, even if "The Bo...
by mukramesh
Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
Replies: 117
Views: 39769

Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Would I do better just buying TLT? I wouldn't try to buy individual bonds in a 401(k) account.  It can probably be done, but TLT should work fine for now. I buy individual bonds directly in my Fidelity 401(k) through their brokerage window (BrokerageLink) commission free. It's actually quite easy a...
by mukramesh
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Robin Hood App
Replies: 16
Views: 9002

Re: Robin Hood App

I use it and I know a few others who do as well. Here's my two second review: Upside: Free Trades :) Each app update adds new features (recently added Stop order types) Downside: Very low on features. All researching of instruments should be done outside of the app. Only use the app for the purchase...
by mukramesh
Fri May 15, 2015 6:09 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash Drag
Replies: 19
Views: 15251

Re: Cash Drag

I don't remember who posted it, but somebody in this forum said something I found very insightful regarding the value of cash. Cash doesn't just help reduce portfolio volatility, but it really helps with life volatility (their phrase, not mine). Consider the financial crash in 2008. Someone investin...
by mukramesh
Thu Apr 09, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
Replies: 11
Views: 7206

Re: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)

For everyone's information these are the approximate duration values given by Fidelity for bonds of different maturity: 20yrs- 14.6 25yrs- 16.4 30yrs- 20.8 Obviously there is more 'juice' (volatility) in the longer maturity bonds. But that still doesn't really help us determine what is best for the ...
by mukramesh
Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
Replies: 11
Views: 7206

Re: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)

My Fidelity 401k and Vanguard Roth IRA have commission free trading for US Treasuries. I'm also curious if keeping the maturity between 25-30 years makes any difference vs. 20-30.
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Explain please
Replies: 4
Views: 3087

Re: Explain please

2nd Grade explanation: You buy a toy for $5. A little while later, the toy is worth $10 so you decide to sell it. You have made $5 in profit which you can now use to buy other toys.

Now realize toys = gold and profit = capital appreciation

Hope that helps :)
by mukramesh
Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39483

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

Just a heads up, according to peaktotrough, the PP has only had a DD above 10% six times since 1972. So if you are waiting for the PP to crash before buying in, you might have to wait a while. Compared to most conventional investing strategies, losing a few % here and there is not really a big deal....
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39483

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

This statement confuses me. How can you think Stocks are a bad investment because they have kept going up AND Gold is a bad investment because it has kept going down? For stock, since it's been going straight up for 5 years since the crash (look at the charts) without a 10% correction, which is tot...
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 252901

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

You probably have 'Reinvest Div/Int' set to NO. All dividends get put into Cash (T-Bills) and then get added to your total returns.
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39483

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

I have been watching the HBPP portfolio for over 6 months because I am still not convinced due to the current environment.  stock is sky high - waiting to dive back down to earth, back to dotcom bubble territory, not more than 10% correction over 5 years ... gold - is still on the slippery slope, h...