Search found 165 matches
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:54 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 45684
Re: The Risk Parity PP
forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well compare daily . Right but I am talking about a hypothetical investor who started in the year 2000 and has a 30 year investment time frame. The first 15 years are over and stocks didn't do so well; he has 15 years to go. What does he do? S...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:53 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: POLL: How Old Are You?
- Replies: 16
- Views: 7978
Re: POLL: How Old Are You?
24. Hoping to go the ERE track
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 45684
Re: The Risk Parity PP
Right but I am talking about a hypothetical investor who started in the year 2000 and has a 30 year investment time frame. The first 15 years are over and stocks didn't do so well; he has 15 years to go. What does he do?mathjak107 wrote: forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well compare daily .
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:34 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 45684
Re: The Risk Parity PP
@mathjak107: Regarding your argument about stocks being the way to go for all long term investing, you agree that this is only true for the US investor or for those investing in the US stock market, correct? Other countries (Japan, for instance) haven't had the same rosy stock market history as us. ...
- Thu Jul 09, 2015 4:32 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 45684
Re: The Risk Parity PP
@mathjak107: Yes obviously historically that worked very well for the US stock market investor; no one is arguing about history. We are just talking about predictions going forward. You are advising to bet heavily that the historic trend continues whereas the PP investors believe that our portfolio ...
- Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:47 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 45684
Re: The Risk Parity PP
@buddtholomew: I understand what you are saying as well. But essentially, mathjak has two points: 1. Upside potential (stocks) is more important than downside protection (PP). 2. In the 'long run,' stocks will always win, regardless of what price you bought them. As a PP investor, I disagree with bo...
- Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:07 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 45684
Re: The Risk Parity PP
Okay fair enough. Just another small point, you made this comment as well i can't predict but just something to keep in mind if you are trying to grow a nest egg and not just preserve money. But you are definitely making a prediction here. Your prediction is: gold will keep going down so you won't h...
- Thu Jul 09, 2015 1:48 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 45684
Re: The Risk Parity PP
just keep that in the back of your mind. when those rates trend back , which eventually they will it will be very different than it was prior. @Mathjak107: You've been posting this idea in a number of topics on this website. And I agree that we have clearly had an environment that led to falling in...
- Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:28 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: risk parity / volatility
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4325
Re: risk parity / volatility
The equivalent portfolio mix is: Gold: 19% 20yr Treasuries: 52% S&P 500: 29% I personally would then add a healthy slug of cash to further dampen it. Isn't that almost the same as a PP if you split the 20yr treasuries in half and call it 26% 30yr Treasuries and 26% Short Term Treasuries...
- Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:48 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 296912
Re: No where to hide
A conservative BH portfolio is 50/50. Gold could certainly underperform equities in the above scenario so the results are not conclusive with a flat to lower stock market. True for gold. However I imagine long term treasuries would fare somewhat better than the 50% of the Boglehead portfolio that i...
- Thu Jun 11, 2015 11:57 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Worst 3 year PP performance ever?
- Replies: 124
- Views: 55293
Re: Worst 3 year PP performance ever?
@Kevin: That's true, but gold also seemed to help the PP in the 2000's. I mean, look at all that green compared to the Swedroe portfolio! Also protection against 2008-like events is pretty nifty
- Thu Jun 11, 2015 11:53 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 296912
Re: No where to hide
Everyone always suspected that the biggest threat to the PP was a rising stock market, and that's pretty much been the story the last couple of years. That's utter nonsense! The PP would be DESTROYED without a rising stock market. That may be true, but imagine how much more devastating it would be...
- Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
- Replies: 60
- Views: 20226
Re: Newbie implementing PP in India
@LC475: I understand what you are saying regarding Gold's 'world price' not necessarily being affected, however your Zimbabwe scenario showed that even a Zimbabwe-PP would have done somewhat better than any other Zimbabwe-only investment strategies due to holding gold. I'll have to think about what ...
- Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
- Replies: 60
- Views: 20226
Re: Newbie implementing PP in India
We have reason to think that gold won't work so great as an inflation hedge for India because the Indian rupee is not the reserve currency of the world, nor even a very major currency. So if the rupee crashes, gold will not necessarily skyrocket much, if at all. Can you explain this? My understand...
- Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:02 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
- Replies: 117
- Views: 39769
Re: New PPer needs guidance.
At the risk of being accused of market timing, it may not be a bad idea to take the funds you've allocated for a Permanent Portfolio and ease in, perhaps over 3 or 4 quarters (in 33% or 25% increments). Of course it's a good idea to dollar cost average into a set of new investments, even if "The Bo...
- Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:34 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
- Replies: 117
- Views: 39769
Re: New PPer needs guidance.
Would I do better just buying TLT? I wouldn't try to buy individual bonds in a 401(k) account. It can probably be done, but TLT should work fine for now. I buy individual bonds directly in my Fidelity 401(k) through their brokerage window (BrokerageLink) commission free. It's actually quite easy a...
- Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:58 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Robin Hood App
- Replies: 16
- Views: 9002
Re: Robin Hood App
I use it and I know a few others who do as well. Here's my two second review: Upside: Free Trades :) Each app update adds new features (recently added Stop order types) Downside: Very low on features. All researching of instruments should be done outside of the app. Only use the app for the purchase...
Re: Cash Drag
I don't remember who posted it, but somebody in this forum said something I found very insightful regarding the value of cash. Cash doesn't just help reduce portfolio volatility, but it really helps with life volatility (their phrase, not mine). Consider the financial crash in 2008. Someone investin...
- Thu Apr 09, 2015 3:07 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
- Replies: 11
- Views: 7206
Re: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
For everyone's information these are the approximate duration values given by Fidelity for bonds of different maturity: 20yrs- 14.6 25yrs- 16.4 30yrs- 20.8 Obviously there is more 'juice' (volatility) in the longer maturity bonds. But that still doesn't really help us determine what is best for the ...
- Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:45 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
- Replies: 11
- Views: 7206
Re: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
My Fidelity 401k and Vanguard Roth IRA have commission free trading for US Treasuries. I'm also curious if keeping the maturity between 25-30 years makes any difference vs. 20-30.
- Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:48 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Explain please
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3087
Re: Explain please
2nd Grade explanation: You buy a toy for $5. A little while later, the toy is worth $10 so you decide to sell it. You have made $5 in profit which you can now use to buy other toys.
Now realize toys = gold and profit = capital appreciation
Hope that helps
Now realize toys = gold and profit = capital appreciation
Hope that helps
- Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:51 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
- Replies: 97
- Views: 39483
Re: How Are You Doing In PP?
Just a heads up, according to peaktotrough, the PP has only had a DD above 10% six times since 1972. So if you are waiting for the PP to crash before buying in, you might have to wait a while. Compared to most conventional investing strategies, losing a few % here and there is not really a big deal....
- Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:45 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
- Replies: 97
- Views: 39483
Re: How Are You Doing In PP?
This statement confuses me. How can you think Stocks are a bad investment because they have kept going up AND Gold is a bad investment because it has kept going down? For stock, since it's been going straight up for 5 years since the crash (look at the charts) without a 10% correction, which is tot...
- Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:32 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
- Replies: 101
- Views: 252901
Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
You probably have 'Reinvest Div/Int' set to NO. All dividends get put into Cash (T-Bills) and then get added to your total returns.
- Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:20 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
- Replies: 97
- Views: 39483
Re: How Are You Doing In PP?
I have been watching the HBPP portfolio for over 6 months because I am still not convinced due to the current environment. stock is sky high - waiting to dive back down to earth, back to dotcom bubble territory, not more than 10% correction over 5 years ... gold - is still on the slippery slope, h...