Search found 1052 matches

by Gosso
Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20385

Re: 2014 PP performance

Gosso - I must just be really really bad at math?  I'm calculating by subtracting my overall portfolio's ending value from teh starting value - dividing the difference by the starting value and multiplying by 100.  I'm getting 8.53% for my return.  I know there's differences between FSTVX vs SPY an...
by Gosso
Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20385

Re: 2014 PP performance

Ok, I back tested my funds on Yahoo Finance - my original numbers were not starting at the beginning of the year so I did a little better than I thought - 7.98% return.  Still curious where the discrepancy is coming from though.  Did my individual funds really under perform by that much?  My funds ...
by Gosso
Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
Replies: 17
Views: 6842

Re: End-of-year GAIN capturing?

Gosso, I think the problem there would be that your brokerage would report to the IRS the sale from the lower cost basis.  And then you'd have an argument with the IRS you wouldn't want to have.  So you'd need to somehow convince your broker to adjust your cost basis.  I'm 99% sure they'll tell you...
by Gosso
Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
Replies: 17
Views: 6842

Re: End-of-year GAIN capturing?

Do the shares actually need to be sold and repurchased, or can that step be avoided and simply adjust the average cost basis to reflect a sale and capital gain?  It would be nice to avoid two commissions and the spread.
by Gosso
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mebane Faber's new ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 4839

Re: Mebane Faber's new ETF

Faber mentioned in an interview (can't remember which one) that GAA will funnel a percentage of its funds into the other Cambria ETFs which are money makers.  He claimed that once GAA is over $100 million then it will become profitable.
by Gosso
Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 359813

Re: The Bond Dream Room

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/54876e486da811701511bdc8-830-589/screen%20shot%202014-12-09%20at%204.48.13%20pm.png http://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-gundlach-webcast-december-9-2014-12 [quote=Jeff Gundlach] "It's almost unthinkable that I would want German bonds instead of US bonds."...
by Gosso
Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:16 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: SHY Loses A Year's Worth Of Gains In One Day
Replies: 5
Views: 6200

Re: SHY Loses A Year's Worth Of Gains In One Day

If CD's were priced daily then they would see the same price swings as a short term bond with similar duration. And a bond fund or ETF is the equivalent of holding a bond with a constant term and duration.  From a total return and risk (ie maintaining a constant duration) perspective there is no dif...
by Gosso
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385535

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Was C.S. Lewis a universalist? The notion that Christianity is to be approached in the same manner as other mythologies would become the underlying principle of Lewis’s universalism, as well as providing an answer to the dilemma of the possible salvation of the Pagans. If the mythologies, rather tha...
by Gosso
Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The Technical State of Gold
Replies: 12
Views: 6003

Re: The Technical State of Gold

The rave guy looks like the younger and crazier brother of the dude in your avatar, Gosso. ;) Haha, that sounds like it could be a great idea for an episode of Community.  (By the way the raving dude is Dean Pelton from Community, and my avatar is Bill Murray from Life Aquatic). Well back to the te...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25949

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

point being libor is widely accepted...long term market manipulation. do those who deny gold market manip also deny that libor was a scandal and the fines paid were unjust? There is no doubt they attempted to move LIBOR up or down to suit their fancy, but the question is how much of an impact did t...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The Technical State of Gold
Replies: 12
Views: 6003

Re: The Technical State of Gold

Cool!  A rave thread!  I'll get the E and the foam machine.  ;D

Image
by Gosso
Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25949

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

jumping in here...curious your views on the Libor scandal....do you also deny that being a real scandal? I don't know much about it.  It seems that LIBOR has always been a made up number, since it is based on a phone survey of the London banks rather than actual transactions.  I was trying to do a ...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25949

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Here's an article from Bloomberg regarding the aluminum merry-go-round:  http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-20/the-goldman-sachs-aluminum-conspiracy-was-pretty-silly After reading that I was reminded of Hanlon's razor : "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stup...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25949

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

More hard evidence of large banks manipulating commodities -  this time from a US senate report naming JP Morgan, Goldman-Sachs and others:   http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/senate-report-criticizes-goldman-and-jpmorgan-over-their-roles-in-commodities-market/   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25949

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

I was just reading through Jesse Livermore's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and came across this passage, which made me think of all the claims of market manipualtion in the gold market: As I have said a thousand times, no manipulation can put stocks down and keep them down. There is nothing myst...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: CAGR over time
Replies: 10
Views: 4065

Re: CAGR over time

Here's the rolling real CAGR:

[img width=500]http://i61.tinypic.com/jzb61e.png[/img]
by Gosso
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Great new diet idea
Replies: 2
Views: 2311

Re: Great new diet idea

For years I had to annoyingly crush the Doritos into the Mountain Dew bottle, well, no more!  Problem solved!

http://time.com/3573045/doritos-flavore ... pocalypse/
by Gosso
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 10
Views: 4760

Re: Asset Volatility Question

Fun thread. Great chart Gosso! Just one thing...how is the pain/gain ratio calculated?  Interestingly, the 60/40 appears to be very close to the PP or better for almost all the time except some periods in the 1970s.  I imagine that's the eras when gold was skyrocketing.  That's a bit counterintuitiv...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 10
Views: 4760

Re: Asset Volatility Question

The gain to pain ratio shows that the PP has had a tough couple of years, while the 60/40 has enjoyed much happiness.  The chart below shows the gain to pain ratio measured over two year rolling periods (the higher the G/P the better).  It's pretty interesting - I bet it would be a leading indicator...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 07, 2014 8:16 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Replies: 9
Views: 4016

Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing

Gosso, Can you please explain this further? Does it mean that for every down month in the PP, there are 1.65 up months? Real or nominal? Thanks. You're close, it also measures the magnitudes of the positive months vs negative months.  The numbers I used were inflation-adjusted (real), from Jan-1972...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Replies: 9
Views: 4016

Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing

Use a "learning" data set and a "testing" data set.  That is, fit your model to some subset of the data, and then look at how the predictions work on the rest of the data.  For example, if you have 10 years worth of data, fit parameters based on the first 7 years, and see how those parameters work ...
by Gosso
Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 7
Views: 5084

Re: 130 Years of 60/40

I posted this quote from William Bernstein on the 60:30:10 thread, but I think it's relevant to this discussion as well. Since it was illegal to own gold until 1975 I'd suggest running your numbers starting in 1980; you'll get quite different results. It was illegal to own physical gold, but it was...
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 7
Views: 5084

Re: 130 Years of 60/40

It is obvious to me that gold smooths out the rough periods for stocks and bonds (at least when gold is allowed to freely float).

Image

It is basic math.  The PP wins.
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 589070

Re: YouTube Junkie

Anyone with an interest in sailing must check our "White Spot Pirates": https://www.youtube.com/user/WhiteSpotPirates

Not only is she a cute german gal, but she has more balls than most of us.
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 7
Views: 5084

130 Years of 60/40

I wasn't sure where to post this, but I thought it belong along side the PP as a comparison. I've had this data for awhile but thought I'd share it with y'all (it is up to date to the end of 2013).  The first is a 60/40 (60% stocks, 40% 10 years US bonds) adjusted for inflation, with dividends and i...