Search found 271 matches
- Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:40 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
- Replies: 144
- Views: 156113
Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
For December 2020, there is a change of investment in both Global Navigator and The Russell. Global Navigator exits its leverage holding SSO and goes foreign with ACWX. The Russell exits the Russell MidCap Growth, IWP, and enters the Russell MidCap Value, IWS. I will place my trades to execute late...
- Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:32 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Hey, modeljc. Very much appreciate your thoughts. Whenever I see smart people think differently than I do, I wonder what I am missing. You seem to be recommending a complete exit from bonds and relying on cash and gold to counterweight equity / tech volatility. I’m intrigued. You’re still in the ga...
- Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:52 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
I'm at about 25% each of TMF and TQQQ. 45% physical gold and 5% cash. (Plus a separate cash cache for 3 years living expenses). Roughly, that looks like 1.5x leverage, but it feels more explosive than that. Probably because it is not as easy to "refill" TQQQ from physical gold when it cra...
- Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:53 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
- Replies: 44
- Views: 17188
Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Rising rates could be kryptonite at this particular point in time, yes. I hope the gold will mitigate the effects. Referring to another part of the thread, according to my notes, my Aha! moment was in 2004. That happens to match up with me realizing George Bush The Younger was a war criminal, and s...
- Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:05 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:19 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:18 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
On performance...those numbers are good. Basically holding TQQQ since inception would have made anyone wealthy. However, one should model 2000-2002 with a simulated TQQQ...my mix tries to be a mix for the long haul. I not sure TQQQ would have made it past 2000-2002. For me I not sure you can take t...
- Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:19 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% w...
- Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:12 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% w...
- Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:52 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...
- Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:20 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...
- Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:30 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
- Replies: 237
- Views: 518666
Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% w...
- Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:38 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Long Term Tips YTD return
- Replies: 10
- Views: 5914
Re: Long Term Tips YTD return
Good question. The link shows "US Mkt Correlation" for TLT provides slightly more stock market crash protection. Other than that, I don't believe you're losing much. I'm not ready to go whole-hog into LTPZ, but I'm willing to go half-hog. I bought some LTPZ yesterday and its up +1.12% tod...
- Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Long Term Tips YTD return
- Replies: 10
- Views: 5914
Re: Long Term Tips YTD return
In the past 10 years, LT Treasuries (TLT) have performed very similarly to LT TIPS (LTPZ). See link below, only a ~1% difference in CAGR. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAli...
- Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:06 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
this is why i said above we need to stop with the mental masturbation by reading what was or used to be , or how things may have back tested and concentrate on how things are reacting going forward . driving and looking in the rear view mirror may not be a great idea . What do you guys think the wo...
- Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:52 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Great stuff as usual ahhrunforthehills! And yeah, we're well on our way with scenario #1 and arguably (according to Dalio anyway) with scenario #4 as well. I really do like the idea of having a rules-based approach and as has been said already in this thread that also applies just as much if not mo...
- Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:09 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
- Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:32 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
I can see why Jonathan Clements just split his bond allocation into half short-term Treasuries half short-term TIPS. While I can see your point on short-term Treasuries, I can vividly recall couple of paragraphs from Craig's book that are related to TIPS, in essence (+cite): - "Among the risks...
- Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:56 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
An outstanding post on top of a bunch of other great ones of late ahrunforthehills. Thanks! Taken as a whole your comments and those of mathjak107 here reflect approaches that are deeply informed by Browne’s work while responding to realities he’d never encountered. I know some view any departure f...
- Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:40 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Well at least historically both bonds and stocks become correlated and go down as interest rates are rising...so 50% of your PP is not going to be doing well. Gold, who knows. It may help, it may not help. So that leaves cash. All of this is also somewhat influenced by how interest rates go up...so...
- Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:02 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
- Replies: 141
- Views: 49115
Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds
I am one third inflation model Two thirds conventional. Also have lots of cash going in all the time Do these totals look about right? 25% Equities 17% Gold/Commodities 58% Fixed Income based off of: 25.33% Equities 12.67% Gold 4.33% Commodities 16.67% Ultra Short Bond Fund 11.33% 1-3 Year Treasury...
- Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:25 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower
- Replies: 11
- Views: 4146
Re: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower
Okay modeljc. Here are the numbers I came up with. I'm open to any corrections. Assuming current interest rates of 1.4% and assuming 25 years to maturity... I calculate that: An interest rate drop to 0% increases the bond price by 35% An interest rate increase to 3% decreases the bond price by 28%....
- Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:02 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
- Replies: 24
- Views: 9999
Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Thanks very much for your thoughts! I don't blame folks who dislike active management but Wellington Group certainly has a deep bench and it's difficult to argue with the performance over many decades of either of the "W" funds (Wellington or Wellesley). I could totally see recommending s...
- Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:19 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Ray Dalio and P/E's don't matter
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1478
Ray Dalio and P/E's don't matter
Here is a link on bloomberg that says it's equities or gold.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... view-video
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... view-video