It's hard to say and there are quite a few data issues so let's try some different backtests and I will assume 1.5x leverage of the primary assets and exclude cash. N/N/N = Large Cap/LC, LT (Long-term treasuries), G (gold) followed by CAGR and Max DD Portfoliovisualizer from 1978 - July 2019 https:...

52% STT, 16% TQQQ/TMF/UGLD My ideal would be 25/12.5/12.5. However, with the market being both long in the tooth and very expensive no need to be greedy. Thanks. Do have have your rebalance bands set in your mind? When and how do you bank some of this gain. When you backtested this what does the do...

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:48 am *pinching self* just shy of +35% this year.

This a long post. Can you bring us up to date on your current allocations and %'s after XIV when off the board. What produced the +35%. Feels real good now. The old cat bird seat!!

Thanks for all the good work over at Portfolio charts. I would be interested to know what you think might end up being a final allocation for you. "Final" is a strong word. I always have an open mind to new information. But I'm leaning towards this: 20% Total Stock Market 20% Small Cap Va...

Final is not so strong for me as I am 82 and still thinking about the perfect portfolio. How does the backtest work out? In this case modeling it for yourself is a lot simpler than waiting on me to post a bunch of charts. ;) https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/ Average returns +1.9%....

Thanks for all the good work over at Portfolio charts. I would be interested to know what you think might end up being a final allocation for you. "Final" is a strong word. I always have an open mind to new information. But I'm leaning towards this: 20% Total Stock Market 20% Small Cap Va...

Funny you should mention that out of the blue. ??? I've been considering adding an REIT fund for a while now and am pretty close to pulling the trigger. It's not a timing thing for me, but I sorta like them in moderation for the income in good times and inflation protection when needed. Thanks for ...

Fun perspective. Record set on 30 year us bonds: https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/business/record-set-on-30-year-us-bonds.html Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up. All bow before the genius of ...

The low 2018 return is a bit artificial. If the year had ended a few weeks later or earlier, it would be a whole different story. The YTD 2019 returns reflect the deep transient market dive at year's end: the PP stands at 7.8% and GB at 9% - and this is just for the first half of the year! Even tho...

For May 2016-May 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. Consumer price index as up 6.6%. So inflation has averaged +2.2% over three years. A little more than I thought! I am happy with the PP I think since 2014 the returns are lower than history I think some deflation is in the system but c...

Real is real, that’s why we use it and not nominal. "Shilling notes that U.S. inflation numbers don’t register the full impact of falling prices because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not kept up with the explosion of new technology products." The goverment can't measure inflation but...

Real is real, that’s why we use it and not nominal. "Shilling notes that U.S. inflation numbers don’t register the full impact of falling prices because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not kept up with the explosion of new technology products." The goverment can't measure inflation but...

No one is picking up on we may be OK with recent PP returns if DEFLATION has started.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/02/16 ... 0512161205

In 47 years the PP has made plus 3% REAL 77% of the time using a 3 year rolling average. 11 years or 23% they have made less. Here are the 11 years: 1977 2.8% 1990 1.1% 1994 2.1% 2000 2.6% 2001 .2% 2002 2.3% 2008 2.8% 2014 2.9% 2015 1.5% 2017 2.6% 2018 2.8% These numbers are from a friend and not fr...

Agreed, three years is too short of a timeframe from which to judge the PP. As has been noted in discussions on this forum over the years, the PP can have (and actually has had, once or twice) negative returns for rolling time windows of up to about three years. If I recall, there are very few port...

PP Returns:

Last 12 months 6.6%

Last 24 months 4.8%

Last 36 months 4.9%

YTD 7.9%

If you take out inflation of 2% or so these returns appear to be about 1% or 2% LOW vs history.

If we have had actual DEFLATION of 1% maybe we are OK?

Anybody Happy?

Budd had about 2000 posts. I remember a lot of hand holding from med tex and craig. Nobody on this board has had more support from others. When you have had this high level of support and want to be banned it is OK by me.

You know the rest...junk! No matter what anyone tells you avoid Au like the plague. PP not much better at all. Thank god I reduced my allocation to the assets that go no where but down. Where’s ugly_bird? Seems he deleted his post. For his benefit, stocks are + ~20% YTD and precious gold is negativ...

You know the rest...junk! No matter what anyone tells you avoid Au like the plague. PP not much better at all. Thank god I reduced my allocation to the assets that go no where but down. Where’s ugly_bird? Seems he deleted his post. For his benefit, stocks are + ~20% YTD and precious gold is negativ...

No big bounce to 2674. Looks like I'm selling Monday. It has been a good run since 4/2016. My port will be about 10% gold, 12% cash, 5% equities, the rest 2-7 year T-Notes. Big bet placed on the US Treasury! Like to hear how many trades and what did you NET over a buy and hold 100% SPY. In other wo...

No big bounce to 2674. Looks like I'm selling Monday. It has been a good run since 4/2016. My port will be about 10% gold, 12% cash, 5% equities, the rest 2-7 year T-Notes. Big bet placed on the US Treasury! Like to hear how many trades and what did you NET over a buy and hold 100% SPY. In other wo...

Merry Christmas - target allocation is 35/15/15/35. A little more prosperity and cash, a little less gold and LTT’s. I think I can follow this allocation without much regret. Merry Christmas. Thanks If I was a little younger I would go at least 40% prosperity as cash does not return full value a lo...

I’m sticking to the plan and moving from 25/25/15/35 to 35/15/15/35 and am currently 30/17.5/17.5/35. I TLH Gold and offset gains in SCV (IJS) I then bought SC Blend (IJR) to move closer to 35% Definitely have felt the pain in stocks as IJR is down 6% since that purchase. Basically, sold some gold ...

I’m sticking to the plan and moving from 25/25/15/35 to 35/15/15/35 and am currently 30/17.5/17.5/35. I TLH Gold and offset gains in SCV (IJS) I then bought SC Blend (IJR) to move closer to 35% Definitely have felt the pain in stocks as IJR is down 6% since that purchase. Basically, sold some gold ...

Actually I think you are the fool. I’ve run across people like you all my life, thinking they are superior than someone else in one way or another. Again, humorous to me these are usually the losers of the bunch Mr. vacuum cleaner. Like the PP, you suck. Budd, this has always been a very "hand...