Search found 245 matches
- Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:39 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: More Money != More Inflation
- Replies: 12
- Views: 2903
Re: More Money != More Inflation
If inflation is 8% the Fed should offer us a 6% (at least) savings account. They are supposed to push back on reckless spending. I'm not certain current inflation is still actually that high. Remember that the 8% is backwards looking. July's month over month inflation was flat. August MOM was 0.1%....
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 33473
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:33 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 33473
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
What were you expecting for a real return? I was hoping to get the historical average PP real return of 4%. Since June 2013, when I started the PP, the CAGR has been around 5%, so there's no way the real return would be close to 4%, right? From this I get a cumulate rate of inflation of 27.1% over ...
- Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:16 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
- Replies: 23
- Views: 4302
Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Thanks dockinGA for your thoughtful comments. One thing it's important to remember is that TIPS were only introduced in the U.S. in 1997, while the first gold ETF, GLD, started in 1994. So doing backtests on Portfolio Visualizer is dubious at best given how little history there is. One of the point...
- Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:06 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
- Replies: 23
- Views: 4302
Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Excellent new post from David Enna at Tipswatch: https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/18/this-weeks-10-year-tips-reopening-auction-is-worth-a-serious-look/ Enna is always wisely moderate in his claims and recommendations but reading between the lines here there really aren't any meaningful advantages to n...
- Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:00 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
- Replies: 54
- Views: 18351
Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
How much of the "gold market", so to speak, really care about the type of inflation we're currently seeing? The dollar is very strong, and inflation is being driven mostly by stuff that institutional gold holders don't care much about (used cars, homes, and gasoline). I don't see this as a case of o...
- Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:53 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 33473
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
If it's any consolation: https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :( There's still a long way to go in this saga. Everyone needs to be patient. Otherwise, it's a recipe for personal mental anguish of the sort b...
- Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:33 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 33473
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
British (UK) Permanent Portfolio data since start of 1896 to end of 2021, calendar yearly granularity. Hard PP (cash in T-Bills, UK stock index, gold, 20 year treasury ), with the exception of pre 1932 where it was assumed T-Bills were held instead of gold - when gold/money were convertible at a fi...
- Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:26 am
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
- Replies: 136
- Views: 14058
Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
In response to the narrative that Trump has been a 'champion of the common man', fighting for the middle class, etc. I think one needs look no further than the ongoing situation with Steve Bannon to realize that Trump's rhetoric is largely for show. Bannon has been accused (and in fact indicted by T...
- Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:37 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 33473
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Jason, if you don't mind me asking, what was your portfolio withdrawal rate expected to be when you retired?
- Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:57 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
- Replies: 136
- Views: 14058
Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
"He may be an SOB, but he's our SOB!" :) I said a week or so ago, consider the possibility that there a strong and sizeable conservative base that kinda knows but can't elaborate that Bush et al basically sold their way of life down the GOP corporate river. Trump comes along and says all the things...
- Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:18 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
- Replies: 136
- Views: 14058
Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Anyway, this is just a few snippets of what I've seen change, just within my family, since the arrival of Trump. There absolutely are 'bootlickers' out there, maybe even some on this forum. I would call many of my family members 'bootlickers'. But, we need to reach a point where instinctively hatin...
- Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:35 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 33473
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...
- Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:09 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
- Replies: 136
- Views: 14058
Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
I like that, COIN. Love it, actually. And the fact that you 'coined' a new acronym called COIN just makes it even better.
- Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:58 am
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
- Replies: 136
- Views: 14058
Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
But joypog, your continued use of the term "bootlicking Trumpists" doesn't inspire much confidence in the sincerity of your requests. I was borrowing the term from ishrugged who utilized the phrase it a couple responses up. I never used it previously. Apologies if it offended you. No, it appears yo...
- Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
The chart was quite clear and showed exacly what it was supposed to . But as usual you are back to ball breaking because YOU DINDT UNDERSTAND IT FROM WHAT YOU SAY . case closed .. I thought we coold be civil to each other but no way … I am done ever replying to anything you ask or post …stay off my...
- Sun Sep 04, 2022 2:58 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
I said bonds went up in value , that is not yield …they went up in value which means the total returns are on the right side for that year. I bet everyone here understood what that meant Well except you. My post made the point that you can’t easily predict what bonds are going to do . You are just ...
- Sun Sep 04, 2022 1:57 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
That chart are the years the fed raised more then 1% in a year and only once the last 40 years until now Did bond total returns on 10 years or longer return negative returns that year . So if one was predicting bond returns by fed inceases you would have been quite wrong most of those years. That i...
- Sun Sep 04, 2022 11:41 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
In this case we are looking at bond rates falling as short term rates increase over the last 40 years except for 1994 and as of now so it certainly applies to this discussion as pointed stick told us predicting rates when short term rates rise is easy and that is anything but the case . So we are t...
- Sun Sep 04, 2022 7:37 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
true but it also does not show much difference depending on bond maturity vs coupon rate at times as well. just look at that 30 year , how there is very little change from 7-8% to 15%. 1989 shows the 10 year at about 7% There is little difference on the chart between 4% coupon and 7% as it appears ...
- Sun Sep 04, 2022 6:13 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
i found this chart . very interesting. it shows on the 10 year the total return is about the same from minus 1% to about plus 6% . the 30 year shows little change from about 7% all the way out if this chart is correct. not sure if it is answering the question though fully but it does show not much ...
- Sun Sep 04, 2022 5:40 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
It is total return If it's total return, it's going to be highly influenced by the starting coupon rate. In other words, if rates are high enough, then you'll still show a profit even if rates rise and the value of your bond drops slightly. I think total return will end up the same when rates chang...
- Sat Sep 03, 2022 6:30 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
As an asset class on its own, long treasuries are uniquely terrible when interest rates are going up, which should be quite obvious. As part of a PP, you could still conceivably harvest some gains from them with tight rebalancing bands as they oscillate up and down within their general long-term tr...
- Sat Sep 03, 2022 6:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
If it's total return, it's going to be highly influenced by the starting coupon rate. In other words, if rates are high enough, then you'll still show a profit even if rates rise and the value of your bond drops slightly.
- Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 140287
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
I have data on intermediate term bonds vs the fed moving short term rates more than 1% in a year over the last 40 plus years . In all cases bonds went up in value not down except 1994 . So things are not that predictable as far as fed raises rates and bonds fall .. The left is how much the fed rais...