Search found 1052 matches
- Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 12350
Re: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
So if annual rebalancing was done on May 31 rather than Dec 31 then the PP did indeed experience a -25% nominal drawdown. However it was extremely brief and was mainly the result of gold spiking 38% in only 6 days at the parabolic top in January 1980. So the draw down was due to a blow off spike u...
- Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:30 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 12350
Re: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
I have some old daily data (it is complete up to May 2013), but it should shed some more light on the PP drawdowns: [img width=600]http://i57.tinypic.com/6pycfc.png[/img] So if annual rebalancing was done on May 31 rather than Dec 31 then the PP did indeed experience a -25% nominal drawdown. Howeve...
- Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:55 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 12350
Re: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
Here are my results for the real and nominal drawdowns for the PP and 60/40: [img width=600]http://i62.tinypic.com/2ez1vet.png[/img] (Click to enlarge) So drawdowns measured at the end of month in nominal terms hasn't dropped below -13% since April 1, 1968 (assuming my data is correct, it might not ...
- Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:17 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: LEAPS PP
- Replies: 160
- Views: 75442
Re: LEAPS PP
Congrats, Adam! One thing to keep in mind is that the leverage for at-the-money Jan '17 options on SPY, GLD, and TLT is roughly 5.0x, 4.6x, and 8.1x, respectively. So to balance the leverage you'd need to go in-the-money a bit for TLT, or lower your weighting of TLT options. Otherwise the LEAP PP...
- Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:20 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is The PP Good For Investing?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 33219
Re: Is The PP Good For Investing?
I think you got that flipped around, if inflation is 5% and the nominal drawdown is -25% then the real drawdown would be -30%. So drawdowns in real terms look worse.MachineGhost wrote: Besides Gosso's chart shows 1980 is almost -25% in real terms which blows away -25% in nominal.
- Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:20 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is The PP Good For Investing?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 33219
Re: Is The PP Good For Investing?
Here are my results for the inflation-adjusted drawdowns of the PP and 60/40:
It's interesting that the drawdown for the PP exceeded the 60/40 drawdown in 2013, which is a rare event.
And also, welcome back MT!
It's interesting that the drawdown for the PP exceeded the 60/40 drawdown in 2013, which is a rare event.
And also, welcome back MT!
- Thu Jan 08, 2015 11:26 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: LEAPS PP
- Replies: 160
- Views: 75442
Re: LEAPS PP
This multiple changes, correct? Yep, it is dependent on the implied volatility (IV), but in general TLT will have a lower IV so it will provide more leverage per dollar invested. Do you think that in 2013 (the numbers are a few posts back) if I would have adjusted the weightings, I would have had a...
- Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:48 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: LEAPS PP
- Replies: 160
- Views: 75442
Re: LEAPS PP
Congrats, Adam! One thing to keep in mind is that the leverage for at-the-money Jan '17 options on SPY, GLD, and TLT is roughly 5.0x, 4.6x, and 8.1x, respectively. So to balance the leverage you'd need to go in-the-money a bit for TLT, or lower your weighting of TLT options. Otherwise the LEAP PP ...
- Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:05 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Counter party risk on leveraged ETFs
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3171
Re: Counter party risk on leveraged ETFs
Many of Direxion's levered ETFs began trading in November 2008, and continued to perform as expected (3x the daily return) during the financial crisis. So they have been battle-tested.
- Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:47 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2014 PP performance
- Replies: 38
- Views: 20782
Re: 2014 PP performance
Hmmm, my numbers are quite different. Using the adjusted closing prices (includes dividends) from Yahoo! Finance I get the following: Stocks (XIU) +11.9% ((21.47 / 19.18) - 1) Gold (IGT) +7.8% Bonds (ZFL) +17.4% Cash (ZFS) +2.3% Canadian 4x25 PP +9.85% (includes dividends and interest) Unhe...
- Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:26 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2014 PP performance
- Replies: 38
- Views: 20782
Re: 2014 PP performance
Since I hold the Canadian PP, I thought I'd share how our results differ from what you guys had in 2014. Stocks: +8.1% Bonds: +11.5% Gold: +4.4% Cash: +0.1% Total: +6.0% As you can see the resource heavy Canadian stock market got hit hard by the pull back in oil price. However that exit of foreign ...
- Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2014 PP performance
- Replies: 38
- Views: 20782
Re: 2014 PP performance
Gosso - I must just be really really bad at math? I'm calculating by subtracting my overall portfolio's ending value from teh starting value - dividing the difference by the starting value and multiplying by 100. I'm getting 8.53% for my return. I know there's differences between FSTVX vs SPY an...
- Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2014 PP performance
- Replies: 38
- Views: 20782
Re: 2014 PP performance
Ok, I back tested my funds on Yahoo Finance - my original numbers were not starting at the beginning of the year so I did a little better than I thought - 7.98% return. Still curious where the discrepancy is coming from though. Did my individual funds really under perform by that much? My funds ...
- Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:16 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 6927
Re: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
Gosso, I think the problem there would be that your brokerage would report to the IRS the sale from the lower cost basis. And then you'd have an argument with the IRS you wouldn't want to have. So you'd need to somehow convince your broker to adjust your cost basis. I'm 99% sure they'll tell you...
- Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:06 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 6927
Re: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
Do the shares actually need to be sold and repurchased, or can that step be avoided and simply adjust the average cost basis to reflect a sale and capital gain? It would be nice to avoid two commissions and the spread.
- Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:39 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Mebane Faber's new ETF
- Replies: 8
- Views: 4874
Re: Mebane Faber's new ETF
Faber mentioned in an interview (can't remember which one) that GAA will funnel a percentage of its funds into the other Cambria ETFs which are money makers. He claimed that once GAA is over $100 million then it will become profitable.
- Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:55 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The Bond Dream Room
- Replies: 554
- Views: 376352
Re: The Bond Dream Room
http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/54876e486da811701511bdc8-830-589/screen%20shot%202014-12-09%20at%204.48.13%20pm.png http://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-gundlach-webcast-december-9-2014-12 [quote=Jeff Gundlach] "It's almost unthinkable that I would want German bonds instead of US bo...
- Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:16 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: SHY Loses A Year's Worth Of Gains In One Day
- Replies: 5
- Views: 6248
Re: SHY Loses A Year's Worth Of Gains In One Day
If CD's were priced daily then they would see the same price swings as a short term bond with similar duration. And a bond fund or ETF is the equivalent of holding a bond with a constant term and duration. From a total return and risk (ie maintaining a constant duration) perspective there is no dif...
- Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:16 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Figuring Out Religion
- Replies: 4052
- Views: 1462313
Re: Figuring Out Religion
Was C.S. Lewis a universalist? The notion that Christianity is to be approached in the same manner as other mythologies would become the underlying principle of Lewis’s universalism, as well as providing an answer to the dilemma of the possible salvation of the Pagans. If the mythologies, rather tha...
- Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:45 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The Technical State of Gold
- Replies: 12
- Views: 6095
Re: The Technical State of Gold
The rave guy looks like the younger and crazier brother of the dude in your avatar, Gosso. ;) Haha, that sounds like it could be a great idea for an episode of Community. (By the way the raving dude is Dean Pelton from Community, and my avatar is Bill Murray from Life Aquatic). Well back to the te...
- Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:03 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
- Replies: 50
- Views: 26983
Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
point being libor is widely accepted...long term market manipulation. do those who deny gold market manip also deny that libor was a scandal and the fines paid were unjust? There is no doubt they attempted to move LIBOR up or down to suit their fancy, but the question is how much of an impact did t...
- Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:46 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The Technical State of Gold
- Replies: 12
- Views: 6095
Re: The Technical State of Gold
Cool! A rave thread! I'll get the E and the foam machine.
- Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:16 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
- Replies: 50
- Views: 26983
Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
jumping in here...curious your views on the Libor scandal....do you also deny that being a real scandal? I don't know much about it. It seems that LIBOR has always been a made up number, since it is based on a phone survey of the London banks rather than actual transactions. I was trying to do a ...
- Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:56 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
- Replies: 50
- Views: 26983
Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Here's an article from Bloomberg regarding the aluminum merry-go-round: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-20/the-goldman-sachs-aluminum-conspiracy-was-pretty-silly After reading that I was reminded of Hanlon's razor : "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by...
- Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:14 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
- Replies: 50
- Views: 26983
Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
More hard evidence of large banks manipulating commodities - this time from a US senate report naming JP Morgan, Goldman-Sachs and others: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/senate-report-criticizes-goldman-and-jpmorgan-over-their-roles-in-commodities-market/ http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...